NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Convective Outlook

Oct 21, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Oct 21 17:27:53 UTC 2019
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SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 2 Convective Outlook



   SPC AC 211727

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1227 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
   VA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC AND SC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central
   and eastern Carolinas Tuesday, accompanied by the risk for
   potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

   ...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Coastal Vicinity...

   Severe thunderstorm potential will shift eastward from northern FL
   to the southern Chesapeake Bay vicinity on Tuesday. A
   negatively-tilted upper trough will lift northeast from the southern
   U.S. to the Mid-Atlantic region during the forecast period. An
   embedded shortwave impulse will track northeast, east of the
   Appalachians, from central GA through the eastern Carolinas by 00z,
   before moving offshore in the vicinity of southeast VA.  A surface
   cold front will be positioned from near eastern OH southward along
   the central Appalachians and then arcing southwestward across
   northern GA to the northern Gulf coast. Showers and thunderstorms
   will likely be ongoing along/ahead of the cold front Tuesday
   morning, some of which could become strong during the early morning
   hours as the front quickly shifts east of the Appalachians. 

   Low level moisture will surge northward ahead of the quickly
   progressing cold front with mid 60s dewpoints spreading as far north
   as the Chesapeake Bay vicinity and possibly as far as the immediate
   Mid-Atlantic coast.  However, instability will remain rather weak
   from southeast VA northward where heating will not be as strong and
   midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Where stronger heating is
   forecast across parts of central/southern NC southward into northern
   FL, MLCAPE values may reach as high as 1500-2000 J/kg in a narrow
   corridor ahead of the front. Some forecast guidance suggests a weak
   secondary surface low may develop in the VA/NC Piedmont vicinity
   during the late morning. If this occurs, backed low level winds will
   develop ahead of the cold front across parts of mainly
   central/eastern NC into southeast VA. As a result, this could
   locally increase tornado potential across this area.  Otherwise,
   expect a mix of semi-discrete supercells and line segments in
   several bands of convection ahead of the front during the morning
   and afternoon until the front pushes offshore.  Fast storm motion
   will strong low level winds will support a threat for strong/locally
   damaging wind gusts in addition to a few tornadoes.  

   Severe potential will be more limited further south across eastern
   GA into northern FL as stronger forcing for ascent will be lifting
   away from the area early in the period.  Shear will also be somewhat
   weaker across the region with mainly unidirectional southwesterly
   deep layer flow in place, but still more than sufficient for
   organized cells/line segments. Convergence along the cold front will
   be weak, and despite stronger heating leading to greater
   instability, convective coverage will be more isolated.
   Nevertheless, high PW values and steeper low level lapse rates could
   support a few strong gusts in the most intense cells.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   5%     - Slight
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:      5%     - Marginal

   ..Leitman.. 10/21/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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