NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Convective Outlook

Sep 21, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Sep 21 16:56:59 UTC 2018
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SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 2 Convective Outlook



   SPC AC 211656

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1156 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The threat for organized severe weather appears low on Saturday.

   ...Discussion...
   Fast/confluent westerly flow aloft will persist across the Northeast
   and parts of the Midwest Saturday, in the wake of a strong shortwave
   trough advancing east into the Canadian Maritimes. The resultant
   surface pattern will feature an elongated ridge building east across
   the lower Great Lakes and into the Northeast. In turn, a cold front
   will gradually progress south/southeast along the Mid-Atlantic
   coast. A few storms are expected along/ahead of the front in
   Virginia/North Carolina by afternoon, within a weak/modestly
   buoyancy environment characterized by favorable boundary-layer
   moisture, but poor mid-level lapse rates and dry air. Combined with
   weakening flow with southward extent, this thermodynamic environment
   should keep any severe threat low. 

   The aforementioned front will extend westward to north Texas (more
   in the form of a stationary front). Ahead of a primary vorticity
   maximum, rich tropospheric moisture will maintain a heavy rain
   threat where elevated warm advection/frontogenesis is maximized. 
   Weak/disorganized mid-level flow intersecting only modest buoyancy
   should preclude organized severe weather, though.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  


Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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