NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Convective Outlook

Jul 18, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 18 05:57:28 UTC 2019
  |  
SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 2 Convective Outlook



   SPC AC 180557

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
   MIDWEST TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong storms may develop across the upper Midwest to portions
   of the northeastern States.

   ...Discussion...

   Large-scale height rises are forecast across the upper Midwest into
   New England during the day2 period as short-wave ridging builds
   across southern ON/QC. Latest model guidance continues to suggest
   seasonally strong mid-level flow will translate across the northern
   High Plains into northwestern ON ahead of a positive-tilted trough
   that will shift east along the international border during the
   latter half of the period. This flow regime will likely result in
   significant capping across the warm sector as EML plume is
   transported off the higher terrain. 700mb temperatures >16C are
   forecast to extend off the CO Rockies into southeast MN which
   results in short-term model guidance allowing surface dew points to
   rise to unusually high levels. This results in extreme CAPE ahead of
   a front that should sag to a position from central MN-southeast
   SD-NE Panhandle by late afternoon. NAM forecast sounding for FSD at
   20/00z exhibits MUCAPE in excess of 9000 J/kg with a 23g/kg mixing
   ratio. Even so, this air mass is capped with a temperature of 93F.
   If storms form across this region they will likely do so north of
   the boundary where frontal ascent will be maximized. Have expanded
   5% severe probs across the Great Lakes into southeast SD to account
   for this post-frontal initiation. Any storms that form will
   propagate southeast during the overnight hours.

   Downstream, convection may be ongoing across parts of southern ON
   early in the period along nose of a LLJ. If this activity can
   organize there is some reason to believe it could spread southeast
   into portions of the upper OH Valley region. Locally damaging winds
   will be the primary threat with this activity.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
   Wind:      5%     - Marginal
   Hail:      5%     - Marginal

   ..Darrow.. 07/18/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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