NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Convective Outlook

Dec 10, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Dec 10 17:18:30 UTC 2019
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SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 2 Convective Outlook



   SPC AC 101718

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1118 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central
   and southern Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms
   are not expected.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A progressive upper pattern will occur Wednesday across the CONUS,
   as multiple upper troughs develop eastward. A longwave trough
   encompassing much of the eastern states will shift northeastward
   into eastern Canada through the period. Stable conditions associated
   with surface high pressure behind a cold front will greatly limit
   thunderstorm potential across much of the central/eastern CONUS. One
   exception will be along/ahead of the southward-moving front across
   parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula. Here, isolated
   thunderstorms may develop Wednesday afternoon as diurnal heating
   occurs. Weak flow at low/mid-levels across the warm sector and poor
   mid-level lapse rates should limit organized severe potential across
   this region.

   Farther west, a shortwave trough is forecast to develop across the
   Great Basin to the southern/central High Plains by early Thursday
   morning. Negligible instability will be present across these
   regions, and thunderstorms are not expected. A strong
   mid/upper-level jet should overspread much of the Pacific Northwest
   and northern CA by the end of the period. Gradually cooling
   mid-level temperatures may support very weak elevated instability
   along and just offshore the WA Coast late Wednesday night. At this
   point, the potential for lightning over land appears too limited to
   include a general thunderstorm area.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  


Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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