NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Convective Outlook

Jan 18, 2019 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 18 05:45:29 UTC 2019
  |  
SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 2 Convective Outlook



   SPC AC 180545

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1145 PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
   MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered storms, some severe, are expected across parts of the Gulf
   Coast states on Saturday with damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
   tornado or two.

   ...Synopsis...
   A potent shortwave trough will continue east out of TX and into the
   Lower MS Valley during the day with low pressure moving from eastern
   AR across KY and TN. A cold front will trail southward from the low,
   progressing across MS and AL during the day and into northwest GA by
   00Z. Southerly surface winds will allow low 60s F dewpoints to
   return north, with strong veering winds with height favoring severe
   storms despite marginal instability.

   Overnight, the surface low will move off the Delmarva with the cold
   front affecting eastern NC into Sunday morning. Here, instability
   for strong or severe storms is forecast to remain mostly offshore.

   ...Southeast LA...MS...AL...FL Panhandle...Southwest GA...
   Ongoing storms across the Lower MS Valley Saturday morning are
   forecast to consolidate along the cold front into central MS by 18Z,
   and continue eastward into AL through afternoon. Large looping
   hodographs combined with sufficient instability will favor line
   segments, possibly QLCS in nature, or perhaps a supercell or two
   capable of a brief tornado. Damaging winds appear to be the primary
   threat across the Slight Risk area with 850 mb winds of 50-60 kt. By
   evening, as the front progresses into GA, the risk is expected to
   wane as instability becomes less, and large-scale lift shifts
   northeast of the area. Still, a few damaging wind gusts may occur
   into GA.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   5%     - Slight
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:      5%     - Marginal

   ..Jewell.. 01/18/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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