NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Convective Outlook

Apr 1, 2020 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Apr 1 05:17:12 UTC 2020
  |  
SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 2 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 010517

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1217 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2020

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL
   KANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of
   central Kansas on Thursday during the late afternoon and early
   evening.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large-scale mid-level trough will encompass the northwestern
   CONUS, a ridge over the Upper Midwest, and a slow-to-depart
   trough/low off the Northeast coast.  A zonal belt of moderately
   strong westerlies will remain situated across northern Mexico, TX,
   and the Gulf of Mexico.  

   ...Central Great Plains...
   A cold front is forecast to move south across the central High
   Plains during the day.  A dryline will extend south from an area of 
   surface low pressure, located near the OK Panhandle, along the TX
   Panhandle/western OK border.  A narrow plume of increasing moisture
   (upper 50s F surface dewpoints) will protrude from northwest TX into
   western OK and north-northeast ahead of the front into central KS. 
   By late afternoon, isolated convection will probably develop along
   the front in KS and perhaps into far northwest OK.  A relatively
   narrow window of opportunity for a couple of strong to severe storms
   may occur during the 22-02z period.  Steep 700-500mb lapse rates and
   adequate shear for weak updraft rotation may support a few vigorous
   multicells and/or supercells capable of an isolated risk for large
   hail/severe gusts.  This activity will likely weaken by mid evening.
    
   ...South-central into southeast TX...
   On the nose of richer low-level moisture, expected to be near the
   lower and middle coast of TX, storm coverage continues to vary in
   models.  Despite strong westerly mid-level flow, weak buoyancy is
   currently depicted in model guidance.  The possibility for isolated
   storms to develop within weak warm advection during the day may
   yield some risk for a strong storm or two, but confidence is
   currently not enough to include marginal hail/wind probabilities.

   ..Smith.. 04/01/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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