NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Convective Outlook

Jan 20, 2020 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 20 06:43:53 UTC 2020
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SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 2 Convective Outlook



   SPC AC 200643

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1243 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2020

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Showers, and possibly a few lightning flashes, may affect portions
   of the Pacific Northwest, especially early in the period on Tuesday.

   ...Discussion...
   As a southern-stream upper low/trough initially progged over the
   Southeast moves steadily eastward, and eventually off the southern
   Atlantic Coast, a polar high will prevail over the eastern half of
   the country.  Cold/stable conditions preclude potential for deep
   moist convection.

   In the West, successive southern-stream short-wave vorticity maxima
   are expected to cross the Southwest during the period, with the
   initial feature forecast to reach/cross the southern Plains after
   dark Tuesday.  

   Farther north, an upper low initially off the British
   Columbia/Pacific Northwest Coasts will shift inland, weakening as it
   does.  Cold air aloft associated with this feature will assist in
   development of scattered to isolated showers, particularly across
   the higher terrain of western Washington/western Oregon/northern
   California.  With mid-level lapse rates/instability possibly
   sufficient for a few lightning flashes over parts of western
   Washington/Oregon, will maintain a 10% thunder area over this
   region.  Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S.
   Tuesday.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  


Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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