NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Convective Outlook

Mar 18, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 18 16:55:33 UTC 2024
  |  
SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 2 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 181655

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1155 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
   U.S., Tuesday through Tuesday night.

   ...Synopsis...
   A cut off low will start to slowly drift east across Arizona on
   Tuesday which will bring scattered thunderstorm activity. Elsewhere
   in the CONUS, cool and dry/stable conditions are expected.

   Diurnal thunderstorms are expected near the upper-low across Arizona
   and vicinity on Tuesday as valley locations warm into the 60s and
   the mountains warm into the 50s, generating around 500 J/kg MLCAPE.
   Steep lapse rates amid the cool temperatures aloft will support
   moderately strong updrafts. However, where these storms are most
   likely, shear will be very weak. Therefore, no severe thunderstorms
   are expected.

   A few thunderstorms are possible along the mountains from southern
   California into the central Sierra, but once again, shear should
   remain too weak to support organized thunderstorms and an
   appreciable threat for severe weather.

   ..Bentley.. 03/18/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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