NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Convective Outlook

Jul 4, 2020 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jul 4 17:10:11 UTC 2020
  |  
SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 2 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 041710

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1210 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2020

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern
   Plains Sunday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible
   across the central and southern High Plains as well as southern New
   England.

   ...Synopsis...
   Expansive upper ridging will dominate the weather across much of the
   central and southern US on Sunday, with the stronger westerlies
   extending from the Great Basin into the northern Plains, and over
   New England.  Both of these areas will see some risk of strong to
   severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening.

   ...Northern Plains...
   Moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds will be present
   tomorrow over the northern Plains.  At the surface, a weak front
   will extend from eastern WY into central SD and northwest MN.  This
   boundary is expected to be the focus of scattered afternoon and
   evening thunderstorm development, with ample low-level moisture and
   MLCAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg.  Forecast soundings in this area
   suggest sufficient deep-layer shear for initial supercell structures
   capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts.  Models are varied in
   their solutions regarding the evening evolution of storms, but it is
   likely that one or more MCSs will develop with a persistent wind
   threat well after dark.

   ...New England...
   An upper trough will be affecting New England on Sunday, with
   northwesterly flow aloft and rather cool mid-level temperatures. 
   Parameters appear conditionally favorable for scattered strong
   storms capable of gusty winds and hail.  The primary uncertainty
   involves convective coverage due to relatively dry mid-level air and
   weak low-level convergence.  Will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk
   over parts of ME/NH/MA where model solutions are more aggressive
   with convective coverage/intensity.  However, risk might need to
   extend westward into VT and eastern NY in later updates if potential
   of initiation increases.

   ...Southern Plains...
   A series of weak upper shortwave troughs are embedded in the
   relatively weak flow aloft over CA/AZ/NM.  These features are
   expected to slowly rotate eastward and into parts of eastern NM and
   west TX on Sunday.  This will likely result in greater coverage of
   afternoon thunderstorms.  Mid-level winds will be very marginal for
   organized convection.  However, a deeply mixed boundary layer may be
   sufficient for a few storms producing gusty/damaging wind gusts.

   ..Hart.. 07/04/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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