NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Convective Outlook

Apr 19, 2018 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
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SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 2 Convective Outlook



   SPC AC 190434

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1134 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF EASTERN NM/WEST TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the southern High Plains
   to the Big Bend region of west Texas. A few strong storms are
   possible.

   ...NM/West TX...

   Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the southwestern US
   during the day2 period as an 80kt 500mb speed max translates into
   far west TX by 21/00z. Downstream, a dominant surface ridge over the
   MS Valley will reluctantly shift east allowing more favorable
   moistening low-level trajectories off the western Gulf. Modified
   Gulf air mass should advance up the Rio Grande Valley into extreme
   southeast NM. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer
   heating will occur across much of NM/far west TX such that a narrow
   corridor of instability will develop along the western fringe of
   moisture surge. Have lowered severe probs across TX to reflect a
   weaker instability air mass than earlier expected. Even so,
   scattered thunderstorms should evolve within warm advection zone
   with more isolated activity expected along eastern fringe of strong
   heating. Hail should be the primary severe threat with this
   activity, and a considerable amount of convection may ultimately
   evolve during the latter half of the period, as strong forcing for
   ascent spreads across the TX South Plains.

   ..Darrow.. 04/19/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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