NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Convective Outlook

Mar 23, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 23 17:30:58 UTC 2019
  |  
SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 2 Convective Outlook



   SPC AC 231730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
   NORTHEAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK INTO PARTS OF AR AND SOUTHERN MO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of mainly large hail and
   damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of eastern
   Oklahoma, north Texas, much of Arkansas into southern/eastern
   Missouri, and southwestern Illinois Sunday afternoon and evening.

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough over the central Plains will move eastward to the
   mid MS Valley on Sunday, while a low-amplitude upper trough should
   develop from the Four Corners vicinity across the southern Plains to
   the lower MS Valley through the period. A surface low initially
   along the KS/MO border Sunday morning should likewise develop
   eastward across the mid MS Valley.

   ...Mid MS Valley to North TX...
   Primary change with this outlook was to include higher probabilities
   for large hail and damaging winds from far northeast TX/southeastern
   OK into parts of AR and southern MO. Even though large-scale ascent
   will be relatively modest, confidence has increased that isolated to
   scattered thunderstorms will form along a cold front extending
   southwestward from the surface low by Sunday afternoon. At least
   some diurnal heating and low-level moistening will occur ahead of
   the front, and MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg should be present across the
   warm sector through peak heating. Strong mid/upper-level flow is
   also forecast to be present from north TX into the mid MS Valley,
   and effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt will easily support updraft
   organization with any storms that form. The nearly uni-directional
   and strengthening mid/upper-level flow suggests large hail may be
   the primary concern with initially semi-discrete development and
   steep mid-level lapse rates that should exist along/ahead of the
   front. Eventual upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments
   seems probable by early evening as convection grows upscale along
   the cold front, with the main threat probably transitioning to
   damaging winds. Although low-level flow is not forecast to be overly
   strong, a tornado or two also cannot be ruled out with any initial
   supercellul development.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:     15%     - Slight

   ..Gleason.. 03/23/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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