NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3 Convective Outlook

Mar 19, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 19 07:29:34 UTC 2024
  |  
SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 3 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 190729

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
   THURSDAY EVENING ACORSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
   TEXAS...ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central and southeast Texas
   into adjacent portions of southwestern Louisiana on Thursday.  One
   or two organizing clusters could evolve, accompanied by at least
   some risk for severe hail and wind.

   ...Synopsis...
   It appears that split westerlies will continue to trend more zonal
   to the east of the Rockies during this period, in the wake of a
   deepening and occluding cyclone migrating northeastward across the
   Canadian Maritimes.  Models suggest that the leading edge of a
   significant cold intrusion trailing the cyclone will stall across
   the southern Mid Atlantic, and perhaps substantively begin to modify
   across the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau into the lower Ohio
   and Missouri Valleys.  

   Across the Great Plains, some of this cold air may continue to nose
   southward toward the Texas South Plains, in the wake of mid-level
   troughing progressing east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican
   Plateau toward the lower Mississippi Valley/northwestern Gulf of
   Mexico.  Although substantive spread is evident in the various model
   output concerning a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations,
   it appears that one mid-level cyclonic vorticity center will weaken
   while progressing east-southeast of the Texas Panhandle vicinity
   early the period.  A trailing perturbation may become better-defined
   while progressing east of the Permian Basin/Texas Bend through the
   upper Texas coast vicinity by late Thursday night.  Models suggest
   that this could support a developing surface low across the upper
   Texas coastal plain/northwestern Gulf coast vicinity, along the
   western flank of a developing frontal zone extending
   east-southeastward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  However,
   it still appears that any cyclogenesis will be rather weak.

   ...Southeast Texas...
   Moderate boundary-layer CAPE developing beneath warm and capping
   elevated mixed-layer air may spread north-northwest of middle Texas
   coastal areas, toward the Interstate 35 corridor of central Texas
   during the day.  This may be aided by a corridor of stronger daytime
   heating, but much will depend on the extent of convective
   development which may be spreading east-northeastward into middle
   Texas coastal areas at the outset of the period, supported by
   forcing for ascent associated with a perturbation emanating from the
   subtropical eastern Pacific.

   There is some signal in the model output that this activity could
   grow upscale, supported by increasingly moist/unstable low-level
   inflow, while progressing across the coastal plain into the western
   Gulf of Mexico.  If this occurs, potential for renewed vigorous
   thunderstorm later in the day across parts of central into southeast
   Texas becomes more unclear.  Barring a substantive negative impact
   on further inland destabilization, forcing for ascent with the
   primary upstream  short wave may contribute to the initiation of
   scattered thunderstorm activity by late afternoon.  In the presence
   of strong deep-layer shear, supercells capable of producing large
   hail and locally damaging wind gusts will be possible.  Although
   low-level hodographs may be modest to weak, a tornado or two will
   probably also be possible.

   Into Thursday evening, convection may tend to consolidate and grow
   upscale into an organizing cluster near or just ahead of the
   developing surface low across upper Texas into southwestern
   Louisiana coastal areas. 

   It is possible that severe probabilities across at least parts of
   upper Texas coastal areas will need to be increased in later
   outlooks.  However, this may take a few cycles with much depending
   on sub-synoptic developments.

   ..Kerr.. 03/19/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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