NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3 Convective Outlook

Mar 28, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 28 07:26:50 UTC 2024
  |  
SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 3 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 280726

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A deep, closed upper low initially off the coast of central CA
   should move slowly southward along/near the southern CA Coast on
   Saturday. Cold mid-level temperatures and strong forcing for ascent
   associated with an enhanced mid/upper-level jet should support weak
   instability, and the potential for isolated lighting flashes with
   any low-topped convection that can develop from parts of central
   into southern CA. Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely
   across this region given the meager MUCAPE forecast.

   Isolated thunderstorms may occur Saturday over parts of the southern
   Great Lakes/OH Valley, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves
   east-southeastward across these areas. A weak surface low is also
   forecast to develop eastward over this region in tandem with the
   shortwave trough. Limited low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints
   generally in the low 50s, should temper how much instability can
   develop through Saturday afternoon given the presence of modest to
   poor mid-level lapse rates. This will likely hinder the overall
   severe threat across the OH Valley, even though deep-layer shear
   conditionally supports the potential for organized convection.

   Finally, occasional lightning flashes may occur with elevated
   convection that develops late Saturday night into early Sunday
   morning across parts of NE into southwestern IA and northern MO.
   Low-level moisture is expected to gradually return northward across
   the southern/central Plains through the day, and this area will be
   on northern fringe of this process. Strong forcing associated with a
   southerly low-level jet may provide sufficient lift for parcels to
   reach their LFC. Still, forecast MUCAPE appears too weak to support
   a meaningful hail threat through the end of the period (early Sunday
   morning).

   ..Gleason.. 03/28/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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