NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3 Convective Outlook

Jul 16, 2020 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 16 07:36:38 UTC 2020
  |  
SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 3 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 160736

   Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0236 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
   MN...NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
   MI...

   CORRECTED FOR TEXT IN FIRST PARAGRAPH

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday across portions of
   the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity. Damaging wind gusts
   appear to be the main hazard with these storms.

   ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...

   Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of northern MN/WI
   and the Upper Peninsula of MI at the beginning of the period as an
   MCS from the Day 2 period shifts east/northeast in tandem with a
   compact shortwave impulse. A larger-scale upper trough over the
   northern Rockies early Saturday will progress eastward across the
   northern Plains to the upper MS Valley by Sunday morning. At the
   surface, low pressure near the Manitoba/Ontario border will develop
   eastward, and a cold front will shift east/southeast across the
   northern Plains, extending from the MN/WI border southwestward to
   the NE/KS border by Sunday morning. 

   While some uncertainty exists due to aforementioned convection on
   Day 2 continuing into the early Day 3 period, most guidance suggest
   a very moist and unstable airmass will reside to the south of
   whatever outflow reside across northern MN/WI. As ascent increases
   across the region with the approach of the main upper trough,
   thunderstorms are expected to develop near the cold front and
   residual outflow. Strong instability, steep lapse rates, and a
   modest low level jet should support at least widely scattered,
   organized severe thunderstorms tracking east/southeast along a
   strong instability gradient across the upper MS Valley and Great
   Lakes vicinity. Damaging wind appears to be the main threat with
   this activity, but hail and a couple tornadoes would also be
   possible with any discrete cells.

   ..Leitman.. 07/16/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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