NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3 Convective Outlook

Apr 19, 2018 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
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SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 3 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 190702

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX
   TO SOUTHERN LA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
   of Texas into southern Louisiana Saturday.

   ...TX/LA...

   Strong upper trough will migrate across the southwestern US late
   this week before shifting into TX Saturday. As downstream upper
   ridge shifts into the MS Valley low-level trajectories will become
   more favorable for moisture to advance inland across southern into
   central TX. Latest NAM guidance is the most aggressive with
   continental air mass remaining wedged into portions of the southern
   Plains. There is some concern this scenario may be correct given the
   amount of convection that should evolve within the warm advection
   zone. Most model guidance suggests one or more inches of rain may
   fall from northwest TX into OK and this should suppress the boundary
   into central TX. Ultimately a weak surface wave/low may develop
   along the wind shift before tracking into LA during the overnight
   hours. While low-level moisture is expected to increase considerably
   across the warm sector (mid 60s dew points), forecast buoyancy is
   not particularly high across this region. Thermodynamic environment
   will be somewhat meager for robust updrafts but a strong mid-level
   jet will translate across south-central TX into LA late in the
   period, along with substantial height falls. Widespread convection
   will evolve north of the warm front but the greatest risk for severe
   will be with any storms that develop ahead of the surface wave.
   Given the uncertainty in instability 5% severe probs will be issued
   from central TX into coastal LA. However, strength of wind fields do
   warrant consideration for a potential upgrade if instability
   ultimately is greater than currently forecast.

   ..Darrow.. 04/19/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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