NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3 Convective Outlook

Jul 18, 2019 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 18 06:32:44 UTC 2019
  |  
SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 3 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 180632

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0132 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID MS VALLEY TO
   THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Some severe threat will exist with storms that form over the Mid
   Mississippi Valley into the upper Great Lakes.

   ...Discussion...

   Upper ridge is forecast to flatten significantly across the northern
   US during the day3 period as the southern extent of a positive
   tilted short-wave trough shifts into ON. As deep-layer flow becomes
   more northerly, surface front should advance to a position from
   WI-IA-KS by late afternoon. This boundary is expected to serve as
   the focus for potential robust convection. Large-scale pattern
   continues to favor a substantial EML across the central Plains that
   should extend into the upper Great Lakes. This plume should suppress
   deep convection across the warm sector and limit convective
   development to a post-frontal regime. Late-evening guidance suggests
   a significant corridor of convection will develop north of the
   boundary from the central Plains into northern lower MI. While this
   activity should be elevated in nature, there appears to be some risk
   for gusty winds and perhaps some hail.

   ..Darrow.. 07/18/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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