NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3 Convective Outlook

Jan 25, 2020 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 25 08:30:53 UTC 2020
  |  
SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 3 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 250830

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Showers and thunderstorms are expected from portions of the
   Southwest into the southern Plains, over central and southern
   Florida, and possibly the coastal Pacific Northwest Monday/early
   Tuesday.

   ...Discussion...
   A progressive flow field aloft will persist across the U.S. day 3,
   with numerous short-wave troughs/vorticity maxima to traverse the
   CONUS through the period.  Three distinct areas of convective
   potential are evident -- associated with three of these short-wave
   disturbances.

   The most prominent of these features is progged to move across the
   Desert Southwest/southern Rockies through the day, and then into the
   southern Plains overnight.  As the system crosses the Southwest,
   showers -- and possibly a few lightning flashes -- are expected. 
   Later, as the system emerges into the southern Plains, and QG
   forcing increases, the combination of steepening lapse rates aloft
   and some theta-e advection/moistening near the 850mb level should
   result in ample CAPE above the cool/stable boundary layer to support
   elevated convective development.  While small hail may be possible
   with a few stronger cells overnight -- especially from the Edwards
   Plateau area south and east across southern Texas, potential for
   updrafts strong enough to support hail near severe levels appears
   unlikely.

   Finally, a weaker trough crossing the Gulf of Mexico and an
   associated frontal wave are forecast to near south Florida and the
   Keys overnight.  While showers and a few thunderstorms will be
   possible across roughly the southern half of Florida, only weak
   instability expected near/south of the boundary, and veered
   low-level winds on the warm side of the front suggest minimal if any
   severe potential.

   Finally, coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest should see an
   increase in weak convection -- and possibly some embedded lightning
   -- late in the period, as a compact eastern Pacific vort max reaches
   the coast near the very end of the period.

   ..Goss.. 01/25/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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