NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3 Convective Outlook

Sep 21, 2018 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Sep 21 07:30:31 UTC 2018
  |  
SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 3 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 210730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are not anticipated across the U.S. on Sunday.

   ...Synopsis...
   Persistent ridging aloft is forecast across the southeastern U.S. on
   Sunday, while several weak disturbances south of the main belt of
   westerlies continue to cross the south-central and
   mid-south/southeastern portions of the country.  Meanwhile, within
   the belt of stronger westerlies farther north, northwestern U.S.
   troughing is forecast to move steadily eastward across the
   Intermountain West, gradually emerging into the northern Plains
   during the second half of the period.

   As this trough nears the Plains, High Plains lee troughing is
   forecast to shift eastward, with a weak low/cold front gradually
   evolving.  By early Monday morning, a weak low is progged to lie
   over the northern Minnesota vicinity, with a trailing cold front
   extending south-southwestward to the central High Plains.

   Elsewhere, a lingering west-to-east surface front over the
   south-central and southeastern U.S. is forecast to weaken/dissipate
   with time, as high pressure builds southward out of Canada --
   primarily east of the Appalachians.  By the end of the period, a
   weak/remnant low lingering over eastern portions of Texas may be all
   that remains discernible.  

   Showers and thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
   south-central and southeastern states and into the mid-Atlantic
   region, where a relatively moist airmass may linger near and south
   of the dissipating front.  Farther west, isolated showers and storms
   are expected over parts of the northern Intermountain Region.  At
   this time, it appears that any convection farther east into the
   Plains will be confined to the cool side of the front -- and as
   such, severe-weather risk appears minimal at this time.

   ..Goss.. 09/21/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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