NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3 Convective Outlook

Apr 5, 2020 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 5 07:17:19 UTC 2020
  |  
SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 3 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 050717

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0217 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2020

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   THE OHIO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the
   Ohio Valley late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level low will remain to the west of the southern CA coast
   while a low-amplitude ridge resides over the Gulf Coast northward to
   the Ozark Plateau.  A shortwave trough is forecast to crest the
   ridge and move quickly from SD to the central Appalachians amidst a
   west-northwest flow regime.  In the low levels, a cold front will
   push east across the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley during the
   period as a surface low develops and moves from southern MN to Lake
   Erie.  

   ...Mid MS Valley into OH Valley...
   An elevated mixed layer initially encompassing an area from the
   central High Plains into the mid MS Valley will advect eastward into
   the OH Valley during the day.  An associated stout capping inversion
   will likely inhibit storm development over much of this region,
   before the arrival of the speed max late in the day near the mid MS
   Valley.  Moistening low levels via horizontal moisture transport
   into the region from the lower MS Valley will result in surface
   dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s F.  The increased low-level
   moisture, coupled with steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km)
   and cool 500mb temperatures (-16 to -17 deg C), will likely result
   in moderate buoyancy across a capped/destabilizing warm sector.  It
   is uncertain whether forced convection along the cold front, a
   pre-frontal surface trough, or upglide near the low/warm front will
   be the primary impetus for storm development.  Forecast soundings
   show long hodographs which would favor supercells and organized
   bowing segments.  Large hail and severe gusts are possible with the
   more organized/intense storms.  Some of the evening activity will
   likely persist into the overnight and spread east/southeast towards
   the central Appalachians by early Wednesday morning.

   ...ArkLaTex...
   A belt of strong mid-level flow will move eastward around to the
   northern part of a synoptic mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf
   of Mexico.  Models have exhibited consistency in showing at least
   isolated storms developing within a weak warm advection zone from
   parts of east TX/OK eastward into the MS Valley.  However, the lack
   of a boundary to focus storms, and inherent uncertainty at the day-3
   timeframe, result in a speculative/conditional severe risk across
   this region.

   ..Smith.. 04/05/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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