NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3 Convective Outlook

Oct 21, 2019 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Oct 21 07:04:54 UTC 2019
  |  
SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 3 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 210704

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0204 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
   U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night.

   ...Discussion...
   The center of a broad and deep, but slowly filling, cyclone is
   generally forecast to continue to slowly migrate across northern
   Ontario into Hudson Bay during this period, while a modest secondary
   low migrates from southern New England into the Canadian Maritimes. 
   The trailing cold front appears likely to stall and weaken across
   the central and southern Florida Peninsula, beneath mid-level
   subtropical ridging.

   To the west, models indicate that amplified mid-level ridging over
   the mid-latitude eastern Pacific may take on more of a positive
   tilt, building east-northeastward into British Columbia and the
   Pacific Northwest.  As this occurs, a downstream short wave trough,
   initially digging across the northern U.S. Rockies, may gradually
   split, with the more vigorous southern portion turning more sharply
   southward toward the southern Rockies/High Plains.  

   In response to these latter developments, cold surface ridging is
   forecast to build across the northern Rockies, and nose eastward and
   southward across much of the northern and central Plains.  There may
   be a weak to modest southerly return flow of moisture into the
   vicinity of a strengthening frontal zone, on the leading edge of the
   colder air, across parts of the southern Plains by 12Z Thursday. 
   This may be accompanied by sufficient destabilization to contribute
   to at least some potential for a few thunderstorms, but probably not
   enough to support an appreciable risk for severe storms.

   ..Kerr.. 10/21/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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