000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240520
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 23 2020
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lowell, located a little more than 800 miles west of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Berg
...LOWELL GRADUALLY MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...
As of 11:00 PM HST Wed Sep 23
the center of Lowell was located near 21.2, -123.7
with movement WNW at 10 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Sep 23 2020
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 240837
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
1100 PM HST Wed Sep 23 2020
...LOWELL GRADUALLY MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 123.7W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 123.7 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected Thursday morning, with that heading and
a gradual increase in forward speed continuing through early next
week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by late Thursday. Lowell is
expected to weaken to a tropical depression by late Friday and
become a remnant low by early Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 24 2020
000
WTPZ22 KNHC 240837
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
0900 UTC THU SEP 24 2020
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 123.7W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 123.7W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 123.2W
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.4N 125.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.7N 127.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.6N 129.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 21.5N 132.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 21.3N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.2N 137.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 21.2N 142.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 21.7N 146.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 123.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Sep 23 2020
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240838
TCDEP2
Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
1100 PM HST Wed Sep 23 2020
Lowell is maintaining status quo, with a few bands of deep
convection located 30 n mi or more to the east of the exposed
center. A recent ASCAT-C pass just clipped the eastern edge of the
tropical-storm-force wind field and had vectors as high as 36 to 37
kt, so it is assumed that Lowell's intensity is still 40 kt.
The available shear analyses indicate that the deep-layer shear
over Lowell is low--maybe slightly moderate--but this seems odd
given the cyclone's sheared appearance. Regardless of what the
shear is now, the relative shear magnitude is expected to begin
increasing in about 36 hours as Lowell moves closer to an
upper-level jet stream. The storm will also be moving over
gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and into a much drier
air mass, and all of these factors should conspire to cause
weakening over the next several days. Global model guidance
indicates that Lowell should lose its deep convection and become a
remnant low by 60 hours, although the ECMWF suggests this could
happen as early as in a day or two.
Lowell has been locked into a west-northwestward motion of 285/9
kt, but the track models insist that it should turn toward the
west very soon as the subtropical ridge to its north strengthens.
The ridge is forecast to remain anchored north of Lowell for the
entire forecast period, causing a gradual acceleration toward the
west or even just south of due west into early next week. The
earlier-noted speed differences among some of the models appear to
have resolved themselves a bit, although the models overall have
sped up. In response, the new NHC track forecast is faster than
the previous prediction, and yet it is still not as fast as the
TVCE multi-model consensus aid or the HCCA model. This probably
means that additional adjustments to forecast speeds are likely in
subsequent advisories.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 21.2N 123.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 21.4N 125.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 21.7N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 21.6N 129.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 21.5N 132.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 21.3N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0600Z 21.2N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0600Z 21.2N 142.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0600Z 21.7N 146.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Berg
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 24 2020
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 240837
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
0900 UTC THU SEP 24 2020
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 125W 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8)
20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 24 Sep 2020 08:40:21 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 24 Sep 2020 09:32:43 GMT
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