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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


616
ABPZ20 KNHC 121747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristina, located about 1000 miles west of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association
with a small low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles
south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast
to gradually become more favorable for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days as the system
moves quickly west-northwestward to westward, well south of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)

...CRISTINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON...
 As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 12
 the center of Cristina was located near 20.7, -125.5
 with movement W at 13 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 25

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 122031
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
200 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020
 
...CRISTINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 125.5W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 125.5 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast, and Christina is expected to
become a remnant low by tonight.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 

Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 25

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020  

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 122031
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052020
2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 125.5W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  30SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 125.5W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 124.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.0N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.4N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.0N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.5N 135.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.0N 137.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 125.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO
 
 

Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 25

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020  

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 122032
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
200 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020
 
Cristina has been devoid of deep convection for several hours. The 
cyclone's circulation now consists of a large swirl of low- to 
mid-level clouds as it continues to move over waters of about 23 C 
and into a progressively drier and more stable surrounding 
atmosphere. Although intensity estimates continue to steadily 
decease, the vortex is taking some additional time to spin down, as 
indicated by a recent ASCAT-A overpass that showed maximum winds of 
35 kt over a portion of the cyclone. Based on the ASCAT data, 
Cristina's intensity is being maintained at 35 kt for this advisory.
 
Given the environmental conditions, it is unlikely that deep
convection will redevelop near Cristina's center, and the cyclone
is expected to become a remnant low soon. The associated winds will
continue to decrease over the next couple of days and the low is
forecast to open into a trough within a few days. Cristina is
moving westward at 11 kt and this general motion is expected to
continue until dissipation, as the system is steered by the low
level easterlies.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/2100Z 20.7N 125.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 21.0N 127.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  13/1800Z 21.4N 129.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  14/0600Z 22.0N 132.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/1800Z 22.5N 135.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  15/0600Z 23.0N 137.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 

Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020


000
FOPZ15 KNHC 122032
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  25         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052020               
2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 130W       34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LATTO                                                    

Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics


Tropical Storm Cristina 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2020 20:34:27 GMT

Tropical Storm Cristina 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2020 21:24:44 GMT
   
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