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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231105
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west
longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Mario, located a a little more than 100 miles west of
the southwestern coast of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Tropical Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of
the basin.

A small low pressure system located several hundred miles south
of the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to drift
northward or northwestward during the next few days, and
significant development is unlikely due to strong upper-level
winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)

...KIKO MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... ...SOME STRENGTHENING LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY...
 As of 11:00 PM HST Sun Sep 22
 the center of Kiko was located near 15.5, -135.3
 with movement WSW at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 44

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 230835
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number  44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
1100 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019

...KIKO MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...
...SOME STRENGTHENING LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 135.3W
ABOUT 1730 MI...2785 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 135.3 West. Kiko is
moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A turn
toward the west to west-northwest is expected Monday followed
by a turn toward the northwest by early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some re-strengthening could begin later tonight or on Monday, but it
is forecast to be short-lived with weakening commencing on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 44

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 230827
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019
0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 135.3W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 15NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 135.3W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 134.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.8N 136.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.9N 137.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.1N 138.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.2N 140.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.3N 142.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 18.2N 143.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 135.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
 

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 44

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 230859
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
1100 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019

GOES-17 enhance infrared imagery and an earlier METOP-A AMSU pass
show that resilient Kiko is producing intermittent bursts of deep
convection with associated -77C cold cloud tops near the surface
center.  These convective bursts, based on the TAFB and SAB
intensity estimates, are substantial enough to maintain its tropical
storm status of 35 kt for this advisory.

Both the ECMWF and FV3GFS Decay SHIPS statistical-dynamical
intensity models show Kiko briefly re-strengthening as it
continues moving over warm SSTs and in a favorable upper-level wind
environment.  By Tuesday afternoon, increasing southwesterly shear
and cooler waters should induce a weakening trend, and Kiko is
forecast to become a remnant low in less than 3 days with
dissipation occuring by the end of the forecast period.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 255/8
kt, just south of due west.  Kiko is expected to turn westward to
west-northwestward on Monday, and then northwestward on Tuesday as a
high amplitude mid-tropospheric trough cuts off, from the
upper-level westerlies, to the northwest of the cyclone.  At the 72
hour period, as the cyclone degenerates into a vertically shallow
remnant low, Kiko should, once again, turn back toward the southwest
within the low-level tradewind flow.  The NHC track forecast is
close to the previous advisory and based on a blend of the various
multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 15.5N 135.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 15.8N 136.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 16.9N 137.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 18.1N 138.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 19.2N 140.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 19.3N 142.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/0600Z 18.2N 143.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019


000
FOPZ13 KNHC 230844
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  44             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019               
0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 135W       34  3   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 140W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)  12(16)   4(20)   1(21)   X(21)
20N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
20N 140W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS                                                  

Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics


Tropical Storm Kiko 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 08:37:33 GMT

Tropical Storm Kiko 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 09:44:37 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression Mario (EP4/EP142019)

...MARIO FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...
 As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Sep 23
 the center of Mario was located near 24.3, -113.5
 with movement NNW at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Tropical Depression Mario Public Advisory Number 24

Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 230817
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Mario Advisory Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
300 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019

...MARIO FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 113.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mario
was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 113.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h), and this general motion should continue through today,
before dissipating near the west coast of the central Baja
California peninsula on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Mario should gradually weaken and is expected to become a remnant
low this morning before dissipating on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Depression Mario Forecast Advisory Number 24

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 230819
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 113.5W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 113.5W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 113.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.5N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.5N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 113.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 

Tropical Depression Mario Forecast Discussion Number 24

Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 230830
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
300 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Mario earned an extra life yesterday but has just about reached its
time limit. Satellite images indicate that an earlier burst of deep
convection has dissipated, with only a couple of small disorganized
blobs left over.  If there is no further convective re-development,
Mario will likely be declared a remnant low later this morning.  The
initial wind speed is reduced to 25 kt in agreement with the latest
satellite estimates.

The depression is nearing cool waters and a drier, more stable
environment.  These conditions should be enough to cause Mario to
continue to gradually weaken and open up into a trough within a
day or so.  The latest intensity and track forecasts are based on
the consensus guidance, tilted toward the global models which
generally do well at this stage of the tropical cyclone life cycle.
No significant changes were made to the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 24.3N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 25.5N 114.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  24/0600Z 26.5N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Depression Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019


000
FOPZ14 KNHC 230823
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019               
0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Tropical Depression Mario Graphics


Tropical Depression Mario 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 08:22:46 GMT

Tropical Depression Mario 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 09:51:09 GMT
   
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