NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST DISCUSSION
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by The National Weather Service
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 250938
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
238 AM PDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.Synopsis...
Dry conditions through Tuesday before a weather system moves in
midweek bringing mountain snow, widespread rain, breezy winds,
and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.Discussion...
Our weather system from the last several days has ceased with drier
and warmer weather the main impacts early this week. Snow
analysis estimates 8-24 inches, up to 36 inches fell across the
Sierra with 4 to 12 inches in the Coastal Range area from Friday
to Sunday morning. Precipitation amounts were 0.25-1.00" in the
Valley with 0.50-1.50" across the foothills and Northern
Sacramento Valley, including Redding.

Afternoon highs warm to the 60s to low 70s in the Valley, with
50s to 60s in the foothills, and 40s to 50s in the mountains. A
few light showers and snow showers will be possible over the
foothills and mountains on Monday, however little to no impacts
are expected with this.

Another storm system will move into the region on Wednesday into
the weekend, bringing renewed chances for widespread
precipitation, mountain snow, breezy winds, and isolated
thunderstorms. The National Blend of Models (NBM) forecasts a
40-80% chance of snow amounts exceeding 6 inches above 5500 feet
from Wednesday through Thursday night, with highest chances along
higher elevations north of I-80.

For rain probabilities, the NBM shows a 40-95% chance of
exceeding 0.25" across much of the Valley, increasing as you
travel northward. The NBM also projects a 50-95% chance of
southerly wind gusts greater than 40 mph on Wednesday, mainly in
the wind prone areas such as the northern/central Sacramento
Valley, adjacent foothills, and Sierra Nevada. Additionally,
confidence is low in exact strength, timing, and location but
there is a chance (10-15%) we see a repeat of isolated
thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday across the Valley and
foothills in the afternoon and evening hours. Wednesday is
forecasted to be the heavier precipitation of the two days.

Potential impacts include slick roads, and mountain travel delays
with chain controls. Periods of active weather continue into the
extended forecast period as well.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)...

Active weather continues on Friday and through much of the weekend
as the trough sinks into SoCal. Clusters are in relative
agreement with the movement of the weather system, although there
is some minor disagreement on the strength of the trough as it
moves over SoCal.

There continues to be around a 20-50% chance of 12 inches of new
snow or more over the higher Sierra elevations Friday and
Saturday. Thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast for Friday
and Saturday. Both days depict a 10-15% chance with Saturday
having the greater area extent of thunderstorm chances.
Precipitation amounts remain highly uncertain at this time due to
the current path models are forecasting and possible convection.
Generally amounts look to be under 0.50" for the Valley and
between 0.50-1.50" for the foothills and mountains but locally
thunderstorms could result in higher totals.

By Sunday the low is centered well south of the area. Some shower
chances remain generally south of I-80 but the interior should be
mostly dry this far north.

Cooler than normal temperatures are expected Friday by mostly 5
to 15 degrees with the greater departure from normal conditions
occurring in the mountains. Warming over next weekend becoming
close to above normal temperatures by early next week with temps
in the upper 60s, low 70s in the Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected across much of the Valley today with
light winds, generally remaining below 10-12 knots. Brief
MVFR/IFR conditions due to isolated showers in the mountains this
afternoon.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
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