NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST DISCUSSION
Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 220945
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
245 AM PDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.Synopsis...
Widespread rain, high elevation snow, breezy winds, and cooler
weather return today through the weekend with the arrival of our
next impactful weather system. Additional storms will be possible
next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Satellite and radar show the front approaching NW California early
this morning. Ahead of the front, skies are mostly cloudy across
interior NorCal. Current temperatures are similar to 24 hours ago
with mainly 30s to lower 40s in the mountains and upper 40s to mid
50s in the Central Valley.

Little has changed in the forecast with two main waves of
precipitation expected over the next few days - the first with
the cold front later today into early Saturday followed by a
second later Saturday into early Sunday as the upper trough moves
through.

Precipitation is forecast to begin over the Coast Range and
Shasta County later this morning, then spread southeast reaching
the I-80 corridor from the Sacramento area up into the northern
Sierra by later this afternoon and this evening. Showery and
cooler weather is expected Saturday, followed by an increase in
showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and night.

Minor to moderate impacts are expected as the system moves through
bringing rain, mountain snow, gusty wind and thunderstorm chances.
QPF of 0.50" to 1" is forecast through the valley with 2" to 4"
over the foothills and mountains.

Snowfall accumulations of 8-18 inches are expected above 6k ft
with lighter accumulations down to around 4k ft. Amounts up to 3
ft will be possible over the higher peaks. Heaviest snow is
expected Friday night and Saturday resulting in travel delays over
the higher northern Sierra passes.

A few thunderstorms will be possible with the front as it moves
through this afternoon and evening, but a better chance of
thunderstorms is expected Saturday afternoon as the upper trough
moves overhead. Brief heavy rain and small hail may accompany
stronger cells.

Southerly breezes of 25-35 mph will be possible in the Sacramento
Valley this afternoon and evening, and again Saturday afternoon.
Southwesterly gusts of 30-50 mph will be possible over exposed
ridges in the mountains.

Shower chances retreat to mainly the mountains by Sunday
afternoon, then a break in precipitation is expected through most
of Monday.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)...
Drier weather on tap Tuesday into early Wednesday as upper level
ridging moves through. NBM appears a little too fast with
progression of next front compared to deterministic models.
Widespread rain and mountain snow spreads from NW to SE across the
CWA Wednesday into Wednesday night as baroclinic zone pushes
through. Showers possible Thursday. WPC storm total QPF Wednesday
through 12z Friday showing a few tenths in the N San Joaquin
Valley increasing to over half an inch in the N Sacramento Valley.
Liquid storm totals in the foothills and mountains range from
around half an inch to locally up to 3 inches. Snow fall amounts
of 5 to 10 inches possible above 5000 feet with local amounts up
to a foot or more over higher terrain. Another Pacific frontal
modeled to move through Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Increasing MVFR/IFR conditions, with lcl LIFR over mountains,
spreading NW to SE across interior NorCal after 18z Fri. In
Central Vly, areas Sly sfc wind 15-25 kts after 18z Fri. In
mountains, areas S-SW wind gusts up to 40 kts over higher terrain.
Snow levels initially above 6500 feet today, lowering 3500 to
4500 feet Saturday morning. Isolated -tsra possible after 20z
Friday.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 5 AM PDT Sunday for West
Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

&&

$$
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