NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 22 19:17:03 UTC 2021
Apr 22, 2021 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal  Day 2 Surface Analysis 

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 145,294 2,596,468 Albuquerque, NM...Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Santa Fe, NM...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 221916

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0216 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...Southwest...southern High Plains...
   The forecast generally remains on track. The primary area of concern
   for critical fire weather will be parts of the Trans-Pecos into the
   South Plains as the mid-level winds will be stronger in these areas.
   The Trans-Pecos has seen ERC values dip below normal, though 5-15%
   RH and winds of 25-30 mph will tend to compensate. The overall
   magnitude of critical conditions is somewhat uncertain in New
   Mexico. An increase in mid-level moisture will likely lead to broad
   areas of cumulus build-ups and isolated thunderstorms in the higher
   terrain. How much this will affect lower elevation RH, where fuels
   are more receptive, is not clear enough for a change in the
   categorical forecast.

   ...Mid-Atlantic...southern New England...
   With today's surface conditions reaching near-elevated to elevated
   in some locations, there is some possibility that tomorrow will see
   similar conditions, though likely with less cloud cover/higher
   temperatures. There are fuels questions given rainfall on Wednesday.
   At present, the greatest potential for sustained elevated conditions
   is in portions of New Jersey where EACC shows relatively more
   receptive fuels than nearby locations.

   ..Wendt.. 04/22/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 AM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021/

   ...Synopsis...
   On Friday, a surface low is forecast to slowly drift from southeast
   Colorado into the Texas Panhandle while slowly deepening. This will
   tighten the pressure gradient and increase wind speeds across much
   of the Southwest and southern Plains. The strongest winds are
   forecast from northern Arizona across New Mexico and into Southwest
   Texas where deep mixing is forecast to bring stronger mid-level flow
   to the surface. Wind speeds in this region are expected to be 20 to
   30 mph with relative humidity from 10 to 15 percent. Fuel dryness
   will vary across the region with more moist fuels at higher
   elevations. However, at least some fuels are cured sufficiently to
   carry fire as seen by numerous smoke plumes observed on visible
   satellite over the past week.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK TO GET DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)



   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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