NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sat Jul 21 19:17:03 UTC 2018
Jul 21, 2018 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis 

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   FNUS22 KWNS 211916

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0216 PM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   Relatively small northward and southward expansions have been made
   to the isolated dry thunderstorm area across parts of northern CA,
   southern OR, and far northwestern NV. Mid-level moisture is forecast
   to increase by Sunday afternoon on the western periphery of an upper
   ridge, and at least isolated convection should initiate across the
   higher terrain of this region. Flow through the cloud-bearing layer
   is not expected to be overly strong, and this may tend to limit
   storm motions. Regardless, very dry/receptive fuels will likely
   support new fire starts with any lightning strikes. Confidence is
   not high enough in greater thunderstorm coverage to include a
   scattered dry thunderstorm area at this time.

   No changes have been made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area
   across northeastern NV into northern UT and western WY. Precipitable
   water values should be close to 1.00 inch over much of this region,
   and wetting rainfall may occur with some thunderstorms. Latest
   short-term guidance continues to suggest that there will be a
   relative minimum in thunderstorm activity across north-central NV
   Sunday afternoon/evening. Have therefore not combined the two
   isolated dry thunderstorm areas.

   The elevated area across parts of the Snake River Valley of ID
   remains warranted, and only minor expansions have been made. The
   lack of even stronger forecast low-level winds continues to preclude
   a critical area.

   ..Gleason.. 07/21/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018/

   A shortwave trough will move through Montana on Sunday and will
   de-amplify throughout the day. This will lead to weakening mid-level
   flow across much of the Pacific Northwest. Enough flow may remain
   for some near-critical wind speeds in eastern portions of the Snake
   River Valley during peak afternoon mixing, but currently it appears
   sustained winds will remain less than 20 mph. Some isolated dry
   thunderstorms will be possible on the periphery of the monsoon along
   the northern portion of the Great Basin and also across northern
   California into southern Oregon and northwest Nevada. Rainfall in
   these areas has been limited over the past week or two and PWAT
   values around 0.8 inches indicate that any storms which form will
   likely be on the drier side.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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