ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 171812
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0112 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2012
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST...
   ...SOUTHWEST...
   NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT CRITICAL AREA. POOR OVERNIGHT
   RECOVERY WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT BY LATE
   MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE CRITICAL AREA. ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
   OVER NERN AZ/NWRN NM WILL RESULT IN A QUICK INCREASE OF WIND SPEEDS
   ABOVE 20 MPH AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ACROSS THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
   GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER
   INCREASES. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT FETCH OF
   UPPER/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
   THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE
   SOUTHWEST. THIS RESULTS IN SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEPTH OF
   THE MIXING. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS TREND...RESULTING
   IN LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER MIN RH VALUES THAN ON THU.
   REDUCED MIXING COULD ALSO RESULT IN A REDUCED FREQUENCY/INTENSITY OF
   WIND GUSTS. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WILL EASILY MEET CRITICAL
   CRITERIA BUT WILL NOT UPGRADE ANY AREAS TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL BASED
   ON PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CLOUD COVER/MIXING.
   WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE TROUGH MOVES E
   OF THE AREA AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.  
   
   ...CNTRL STATES...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL VALID. NO CHANGES NEEDED.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 05/17/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0321 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WRN TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH
   STRONGER JET WINDS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MAINTAINING A FIRE
   THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE...SLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
   ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. 
   
   AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST...WITH A DRY POST-FRONTAL
   AIR MASS CONTINUING IN THE NORTHEAST.
   
   ...SOUTHWEST...
   HIGH-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING TO
   EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS A STRONGER JET PROGRESSES
   THROUGH THE AREA. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED
   SWLY WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH BY
   AFTERNOON. STRONGER GUSTS TO 50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS E
   CNTRL/NERN AZ AND NWRN NM. INITIAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S
   WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS AS
   SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S F DEVELOP. POOR
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...CNTRL STATES...
   LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF A WRN
   TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE ALONG THE LEE
   AREAS OF THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...ONGOING GREEN UP WILL PRECLUDE A
   HIGHLIGHTED AREA. TO THE EAST...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
   OCCUR COMPARED TO D1/THU...THOUGH WIDESPREAD RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
   THE 30S WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED THREAT ACROSS LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE
   GREEN UP HAS NOT YET OCCURRED.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)