NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sat Sep 22 19:40:03 UTC 2018
Sep 22, 2018 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis 

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 55,655 179,394 Rock Springs, WY...Elko, NV...Green River, WY...Evanston, WY...Rawlins, WY...
   FNUS22 KWNS 221938

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0238 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z


   ...Northeast Nevada...
   A Critical fire weather area has been introduced across portions of
   northeast Nevada. This area will remain in close proximity to the
   base of a mid/upper-level trough and on the periphery of the
   associated stronger mid-level flow. The latest high-resolution
   guidance (e.g., HREF/HRRR) suggests several hours of critical fire
   weather conditions developing during the afternoon, as sustained
   surface winds of 20-25 mph (with higher gusts) occur amidst critical
   RH values (less than 15%) and anomalously dry fuels. 

   ...Eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska/South Dakota...
   While near critical meteorological conditions are forecast to
   develop east of the current Critical fire weather area, fuels across
   these areas are generally less receptive to large fire spread than
   farther to the west. Thus, while locally critical conditions may
   develop -- especially in areas with very fine fuels -- the lack of
   greater fuel receptiveness precludes upgrade to a Critical fire
   weather area at this time. 
   ...The North Bay Mountains in California...
   Poor overnight RH recoveries (e.g., RH values remaining around
   20-30%) are expected over the North Bay Mountains late Sunday night
   into Monday morning in conjunction with breezy north winds and
   critically dry fuels. Together, these conditions will promote at
   least locally elevated fire conditions. An Elevated area may be
   needed in a future outlook if trends in guidance suggest RH values
   will be lower than currently forecast. 

   No other changes were needed to the ongoing forecast. See previous
   discussion below for more information.

   ..Elliott.. 09/22/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018/

   An eastward progressing mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the
   northern CONUS during the Day 2/Sunday period. Immediately
   downstream of the trough axis, 40+ knot mid-level southwesterly
   winds will overspread much of the northern Great Basin into
   Wyoming/Montana, coinciding with a well-mixed boundary layer during
   the mid to late afternoon and early evening hours. At the surface,
   an intensifying cyclone to the east, across eastern Wyoming, will
   promote strong westerly winds behind the cyclone over the northern
   Great Basin into western/central Wyoming.

   ...Northern Great Basin into Wyoming and northwest Nebraska...
   Strong mid-level flow will mix downward within a deep boundary
   layer, prevalent across the Northern Great Basin into Wyoming and
   portions of far Northwest Nebraska, where critically low surface RH
   and fuels that are modestly to highly receptive to fire spread will
   be commonplace, hence a broad elevated delineation. As the
   aforementioned surface low deepens across eastern portions of
   Wyoming during the afternoon hours, widespread 20-25 mph surface
   winds (potentially with higher gusts) will occur across much of the
   state. Latest deterministic guidance suggests that these strong
   surface winds will occur as far east as the Laramie Range, hence the
   extension of the critical delineation to these areas.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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