NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sat Jul 4 19:56:02 UTC 2020
Jul 4, 2020 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire
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Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   FNUS22 KWNS 041954

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0254 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2020

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   There remains disagreement on the strength of the low-level flow
   tomorrow across portions of the northern Sierras. However, given the
   low relative humidity and likelihood that at least isolated pockets
   of stronger downslope winds will occur, elevated fire-weather
   conditions will continue across northwest Nevada.

   Elsewhere, thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of
   western Colorado. There is some potential for dry thunderstorms
   within this broader area of thunderstorm potential. At this time,
   current thinking is that slow storm motions should limit this
   potential and thus no area has been added at this time.

   ..Marsh.. 07/04/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2020/

   A gradual de-amplification of the upper-level pattern over the
   western half of the US will lead to a weakening in the mid and
   upper-level winds for Sunday.  These weaker winds, coupled with rain
   chances along and east of the Rockies, will limit the potential for
   widespread and robust fire weather concerns. However, localized
   elevated conditions will be possible where fuels are receptive and
   terrain influences or subtle shortwave troughs can enhance low-level

   ...Nevada into southeast California and Arizona...
   Forecast guidance suggests that pockets of elevated conditions are
   possible across western and northern NV, southeast CA, and northern
   AZ. Downslope winds in these areas may be sustained at around 15
   mph, concurrent with RH reductions below 15%. However, notable
   spread in forecast wind speeds, coupled with the weak flow regime
   aloft, yields low confidence to denote any risk areas at this time.
   Future outlooks may highlight one or more of these regions if
   confidence increases.  

   ...Dry Thunderstorms...
   The broad moisture plume that is currently in place along and east
   of the Rockies is expected to gradually shift east as the mean flow
   becomes more zonal by the late weekend. This will shift the
   potential for isolated dry thunderstorms into western CO where a
   favorable overlap of limited, but sufficient, moisture may be in
   place to support dry thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. However,
   guidance suggests this area may be fairly small, and only a few
   forecast soundings from this region show favorable thermodynamic
   profiles for dry thunderstorms. So while the potential is there for
   a dry thunderstorm or two, confidence on the spatial extent of this
   threat is too low to delineate a risk area.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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