ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 272135

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0435 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

   Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

   A progressive upper-level pattern will continue across the CONUS
   through the outlook period. An upper-level trough is likely to move
   from the Great Lakes into the Northeast on Day 3/Sunday - Day
   4/Monday with another mid-level shortwave trough likely developing
   over the Southwest and moving across the southern Plains on Day
   3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday. Strong mid-level flow (50+ knots) will
   remain over portions of the Southwest and southern Plains through
   Day 4/Monday. An associated surface cyclone is forecast to track
   eastward across Texas and through the Southeast with a trailing cold
   front bringing dry/breezy conditions behind it on Day 4/Monday - Day
   7/Thursday.

   ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Southwest/southern Plains...
   West-southwest flow aloft will result in downslope winds and lee
   troughing across the southern High Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Southerly
   surface winds will increase amid a dry airmass likely resulting in
   elevated to locally critical conditions during the afternoon and
   into the evening.

   On Day 4/Monday, strong mid-level flow will arrive with a surface
   cyclone developing across the southern High Plains. Strong westerly
   surface winds will develop behind a sharpening dryline aided by 75+
   knot mid-level flow resulting in critical conditions. Fuels are
   continuing to cure across the region, especially after
   recent/ongoing dry/windy conditions. While ERCs remain mostly
   near/above normal and some green-up is occurring, fine fuels are
   receptive and 100-hour dead fuel moisture values are dropping (per
   Texas Forestry Service).

   Late in the period, dry/windy conditions may develop again as a
   mid-level trough associated with the subtropical jet moves across
   the Southwest/southern High Plains/northern Mexico. However, there
   is too much uncertainty regarding timing/magnitude of fire weather
   conditions to introduce probabilities at this time.

   ...Day 6/Wednesday: Florida Peninsula...
   Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may result in critical conditions
   on Day 6/Wednesday. Dry/breezy conditions are also possible on Day
   5/Tuesday across eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula with deep
   boundary layer mixing expected. ERCs are mostly above the 85th
   percentile with some areas nearing the 95th percentile across
   central/southern Florida with little to no rain over the last two
   weeks. Current forecast guidance is indicating isolated to scattered
   light rain Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with the cold front
   passage, which may mitigate fire weather conditions.

   ..Nauslar.. 03/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT