NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 22 21:43:03 UTC 2021
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 22, 2021
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D4 51,963 549,861 Flagstaff, AZ...Farmington, NM...Gallup, NM...Sedona, AZ...Cottonwood, AZ...
D5 60,629 1,077,262 El Paso, TX...Las Cruces, NM...Roswell, NM...Alamogordo, NM...Clovis, NM...
D3Sat, Apr 24, 2021 - Sun, Apr 25, 2021 D6Tue, Apr 27, 2021 - Wed, Apr 28, 2021
D4Sun, Apr 25, 2021 - Mon, Apr 26, 2021 D7Wed, Apr 28, 2021 - Thu, Apr 29, 2021
D5Mon, Apr 26, 2021 - Tue, Apr 27, 2021 D8Thu, Apr 29, 2021 - Fri, Apr 30, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 222138

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0438 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

   Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

   A potent Pacific trough will develop off the CA/OR coast and deepen
   as it approaches the Southwest and southern High Plains this weekend
   into early next week. This system is expected to bring fairly
   widespread precipitation with it. This ultimately means that some
   amount of cloud cover could complicate some of the forecast as well
   as there being a somewhat sharp western edge in risk highlights as
   the trough moves eastward. Guidance, however, is in general
   agreement that fire weather concerns will increase in parts of the
   Southwest/Great Basin as early as Saturday with a general increase
   and eastward shift in the risk as the trough intensifies with time.
   Towards the end of the week, upper-level ridging is forecast across
   the West with a general decrease in fire weather concerns.

   As the upper-level trough intensifies off the OR/CA coast, a
   stronger belt of mid-level westerlies will develop across parts of
   the Great Basin and the Southwest on Saturday. Modest surface
   troughing from the northern Rockies into the southern Great Basin
   will help to increase surface winds across northern Arizona. Low-end
   critical probabilities will be maintain this outlook, but the
   somewhat nebulous surface pattern, late increase in mid-level winds
   and some potential high-level clouds do not lend confidence in
   widespread critical conditions occurring.

   For Sunday, the upper trough and southwesterly mid-level jet will
   overspread parts of western Arizona into the eastern Great Basin.
   These winds will combine with a better-defined surface trough to
   increase critical fire weather potential, particularly in northern
   Arizona into northwest New Mexico. Strong winds will likely reach
   north into eastern Utah and western Colorado. With fuel
   receptiveness less certain in those areas, higher critical
   probabilities will remain confined to areas to the south.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Fire weather concerns will again increase on Sunday with modest
   mid-level winds over a lee trough sharpening in the High Plains. Low
   elevation fuels continue to be the most receptive. Without stronger
   mid-level winds or a deeper surface trough, widespread critical
   conditions are not certain.

   The upper-level trough will shift east on Monday and bring much
   stronger mid-level winds across New Mexico into the southern High
   Plains. A much stronger surface response is expected with a deep
   surface low developing in the CO/KS vicinity. Very dry and windy
   conditions are probable, especially across eastern New Mexico.

   The progression of the upper trough may slow some and provide
   another day of fire weather concerns in the southern High Plains
   Tuesday. There are differences in the GFS and ECMWF as to the speed
   of the trough which changes the intensity the attendant lee
   trough/cyclone. However, at least some potential for critical fire
   weather will exist in a similar location to Monday.

   ..Wendt.. 04/22/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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