NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 20 21:16:03 UTC 2019
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 20, 2019
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Fri, Nov 22, 2019 - Sat, Nov 23, 2019 D6Mon, Nov 25, 2019 - Tue, Nov 26, 2019
D4Sat, Nov 23, 2019 - Sun, Nov 24, 2019 D7Tue, Nov 26, 2019 - Wed, Nov 27, 2019
D5Sun, Nov 24, 2019 - Mon, Nov 25, 2019 D8Wed, Nov 27, 2019 - Thu, Nov 28, 2019
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 202112

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0312 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

   Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

   The first in a series of progressive mid-level troughs will move
   across the central and eastern CONUS Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday.
   Another mid-level trough will begin to deepen across the western
   CONUS Days 5-6/Sunday-Monday, before ejecting into the central CONUS
   Days 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday. The surface mass response with these
   progressive troughs will result in relatively cool conditions
   throughout most of the CONUS, with occasions of accumulating
   precipitation across much of the western, central, and southern
   states, tempering the wildfire-spread threat through at least Day
   5/Sunday. Some wildfire-spread threat may then develop across
   portions of the southern High Plains and northern California with
   the intensification of the second aforementioned trough.

   ...Days 5-7/Sunday-Tuesday...
   Ahead of the deepening trough, strong winds aloft will overspread a
   relatively dry boundary layer, that with afternoon heating and
   mixing, combined with downslope flow from the higher terrain, may
   support strong and dry westerly winds. Such conditions will be
   localized across the southern High Plains on Day 5/Sunday, but will
   become more widespread Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday. Also next
   Monday-Tuesday, a northerly component of the stronger flow aloft on
   the back side of the trough will coincide with the Sacramento Valley
   and surrounding areas in California, where dry and breezy northerly
   surface winds are also expected. Fuels are quite dry here, and  with
   little precipitation accumulations noted so far, these fuels should
   remain supportive of wildfire-spread potential. Substantial
   differences in model solutions regarding placement of the trough
   preclude probabilities for critical conditions in either the High
   Plains or California at this time, though probabilities for critical
   conditions may be needed in future outlooks should more agreement be
   noted among guidance members.

   ..Squitieri.. 11/20/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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