Updated: Wed Apr 18 21:22:02 UTC 2018
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 18, 2018
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Risk |
Area (sq. mi.) |
Area Pop. |
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area |
D3 |
59,955 |
1,203,795 |
El Paso, TX...Las Cruces, NM...Roswell, NM...Alamogordo, NM...Socorro, TX... |
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D3 | Fri, Apr 20, 2018 - Sat, Apr 21, 2018 |
D6 | Mon, Apr 23, 2018 - Tue, Apr 24, 2018 |
D4 | Sat, Apr 21, 2018 - Sun, Apr 22, 2018 |
D7 | Tue, Apr 24, 2018 - Wed, Apr 25, 2018 |
D5 | Sun, Apr 22, 2018 - Mon, Apr 23, 2018 |
D8 | Wed, Apr 25, 2018 - Thu, Apr 26, 2018 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
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ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 182120
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0420 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018
Valid 201200Z - 261200Z
A closed upper low will move eastward from the Four Corners region
to the southern/central High Plains on Day 3/Friday, and it should
continue towards the lower/mid MS Valley on Day 4/Saturday. At the
surface, low-level moisture should increase east of a dryline/front
across the southern High Plains on Day 3/Friday. A progressive
pattern is forecast across the CONUS from Day 5/Sunday through the
remainder of the extended forecast period. Considerable uncertainty
exists regarding the possible development and subsequent evolution
of an upper trough/low over the western CONUS around Day 7/Tuesday
into Day 8/Wednesday.
...Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday: Portions of the Southwest into the
Southern Plains...
Although some precipitation may occur across portions of the
Southwest into southern High Plains from Day 2/Thursday into Day
3/Friday, there still appears to be enough potential for fuels to
remain dry/receptive to continue the 70%/critical area for Day
3/Friday for parts of NM into far west TX with no changes. Across
this area, strong/gusty westerly downslope winds behind a
dryline/front will likely combine with critically reduced RH values
to support critical fire weather conditions.
A 40%/marginal area has been maintained for Day 4/Saturday across
the TX Big Bend and Edwards Plateau vicinity. Post-frontal
west-northwesterly winds should become locally strong/gusty Saturday
afternoon, and RH values are forecast to become critically reduced
across this region. Confidence in even stronger low-level winds
currently remains too low to justify higher (70%) probabilities for
critical fire weather conditions.
..Gleason.. 04/18/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
$$
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
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Source: NWS Fire Weather Outlook |
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