ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 172117

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0417 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

   Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

   The upper-level trough across the Pacific Northwest will begin to
   weaken at the start of the period. A ridge will then build across
   the Four Corners region, extending into the Pacific Northwest.
   Upper-level flow across the Great Basin will weaken with time, with
   surface winds primarily driven by daytime heating/thermal surface
   troughing. The Pacific Northwest will begin to warm/dry as the ridge
   builds. Towards the end of the period, the upper-level trough off
   the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast move east and break down the
   ridge. Details on the evolution and timing of this occurring are
   uncertain given the discrepancies in medium-range guidance.

   ...D3/Friday...Portions of Great Basin into southern Wyoming...
   As fuels have continued to cure during recent dry/windy days, enough
   lingering mid-level flow in conjunction with a thermal surface
   trough will promote 15-20 mph wind across portions of the Great
   Basin and southern Wyoming. Higher surface winds are possible in
   Wyoming where mid-level flow will be stronger. Fuels are sparse in
   many locations within the highlighted area, but areas of fine/100-hr
   fuels have cured sufficiently to support a threat for fire spread at
   low/middle elevations. Recent fire activity in central Utah also
   supports increased confidence in potentially critical fire weather.

   ...Pacific Northwest...
   Much of the period will see very little in the way of fire weather
   concerns for Oregon and Washington. However, fuels are expected to
   cure with the warm/hot temperatures and dry conditions expected
   beneath the upper-level ridge. Fire weather concerns will increase
   once the upper-level trough swings through the region with both high
   wind/low RH and lightning ignitions becoming more probable. Current
   medium-range guidance shows the ridge breakdown occurring as early
   as D7/Tuesday or D8/Wednesday. Uncertainty is quite high at this
   time and no probabilities will be introduced.

   ..Wendt.. 07/17/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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