ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 172159

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019

   Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

   A progressive upper-level pattern will continue across the CONUS
   through the outlook period. This will bring seasonably cold
   temperatures and precipitation to much of the CONUS with possible
   exceptions of the Desert Southwest, West Texas, and Lower Rio Grande
   Valley. Two strong upper-level trough passages across the southern
   tier of the CONUS will likely bring fire weather concerns to
   portions of South Texas/Lower Rio Grande on Day 3/Saturday and to
   portions of the Southwest/southern High Plains on Day 5/Monday.

   On Day 3/Saturday, critical conditions (northwest sustained surface
   winds of 20 mph, RH values of 18-25%) may develop in a dry
   post-frontal regime near the Rio Grande stretching from the Edwards
   Plateau southeastward towards the Gulf Coast. The driest air should
   remain in northern Mexico with locally critical conditions most
   likely to develop in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. 

   On Day 4/Sunday, lee troughing and a dry air mass may result in
   elevated conditions across portions of the southern High Plains.
   However, the better chances for critical conditions will be on Day
   5/Monday, when a vigorous upper-level trough will bring strong deep
   layer flow to the Southwest/southern High Plains and support lee
   cyclogenesis near the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Widespread
   west-southwest sustained surface winds of 20-30 mph with RH values
   of 8-15% are expected to develop across southeast Arizona,
   southern/eastern New Mexico, and West Texas/Texas Panhandle on Day
   5/Monday. The limiting factor will be uncertainty regarding fuel
   dryness. Fine fuels may support large fire growth under these
   weather conditions, but there are higher dead fuel moisture values
   in heavier fuels across the region that will likely dampen the
   overall large fire potential. On Day 6/Tuesday, dry post-frontal
   conditions could result in critical conditions along the Rio Grande
   in West/South Texas.

   Additionally, dry northerly flow may result in elevated conditions
   in portions of South Florida on Day 5/Monday, but forecast wetting
   rains before Day 5/Monday should dampen fire potential. Offshore
   flow may develop across portions of southern California on Day
   6/Tuesday, but recent precipitation precludes any probabilities for
   critical conditions at this time.

   ..Nauslar.. 01/17/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT