ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 172032
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2012
   
   VALID 191200Z - 251200Z
   
   EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED
   FROM SRN SK SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND A RIDGE OVER THE OH
   VALLEY. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NEWD ALONG THE NWRN
   PERIPHERY OF THE OH VALLEY RIDGE AND EXTEND ALONG THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF D4/SUN AND FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO THE NRN
   GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF D5/MON. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
   THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS ON D4/SAT AND THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY D5/SUN. FARTHER W...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS A
   RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. WIND SPEEDS WILL
   REMAIN LOW SO NO FIRE WEATHER THREATS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA
   THROUGH D5/MON. HOWEVER...POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS LIKELY OVER
   A LARGE PORTION OF THE SW AND GREAT BASIN. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
   LIKELY SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE RH VALUES DO NOT CLIMB ABOVE 25
   PERCENT. 
   
   MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH WILL
   MOVE INTO THE WRN CONUS AROUND D6/TUE. MAIN UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
   POINT IS IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND LATITUDE OF THE TROUGH. THE
   LATEST ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH AT A HIGHER LATITUDE WHILE THE GFS AND
   MOST OF THE MREF MEMBERS HAVE IT AT A LOWER LATITUDE. THE LOWER
   LATITUDE SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SW...GREAT BASIN... AND
   SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS
   FORECAST. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND
   HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
   
   ...D3: E-CNTRL NM/NRN TX PANHANDLE/OK PANHANDLE...
   MODERATE SWLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
   COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN BRIEF/LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS. THE BREVITY OF THREAT PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR ANY
   HIGHLIGHTS.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 05/17/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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