NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Wed Apr 18 21:22:02 UTC 2018
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 18, 2018
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 59,955 1,203,795 El Paso, TX...Las Cruces, NM...Roswell, NM...Alamogordo, NM...Socorro, TX...
D3Fri, Apr 20, 2018 - Sat, Apr 21, 2018 D6Mon, Apr 23, 2018 - Tue, Apr 24, 2018
D4Sat, Apr 21, 2018 - Sun, Apr 22, 2018 D7Tue, Apr 24, 2018 - Wed, Apr 25, 2018
D5Sun, Apr 22, 2018 - Mon, Apr 23, 2018 D8Wed, Apr 25, 2018 - Thu, Apr 26, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 182120

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0420 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

   Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

   A closed upper low will move eastward from the Four Corners region
   to the southern/central High Plains on Day 3/Friday, and it should
   continue towards the lower/mid MS Valley on Day 4/Saturday. At the
   surface, low-level moisture should increase east of a dryline/front
   across the southern High Plains on Day 3/Friday. A progressive
   pattern is forecast across the CONUS from Day 5/Sunday through the
   remainder of the extended forecast period. Considerable uncertainty
   exists regarding the possible development and subsequent evolution
   of an upper trough/low over the western CONUS around Day 7/Tuesday
   into Day 8/Wednesday.

   ...Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday: Portions of the Southwest into the
   Southern Plains...
   Although some precipitation may occur across portions of the
   Southwest into southern High Plains from Day 2/Thursday into Day
   3/Friday, there still appears to be enough potential for fuels to
   remain dry/receptive to continue the 70%/critical area for Day
   3/Friday for parts of NM into far west TX with no changes. Across
   this area, strong/gusty westerly downslope winds behind a
   dryline/front will likely combine with critically reduced RH values
   to support critical fire weather conditions.

   A 40%/marginal area has been maintained for Day 4/Saturday across
   the TX Big Bend and Edwards Plateau vicinity. Post-frontal
   west-northwesterly winds should become locally strong/gusty Saturday
   afternoon, and RH values are forecast to become critically reduced
   across this region. Confidence in even stronger low-level winds
   currently remains too low to justify higher (70%) probabilities for
   critical fire weather conditions.

   ..Gleason.. 04/18/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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