ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 222159

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0459 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019

   Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

   A cutoff, upper-level low will be situated across the Lower Colorado
   River Valley at the beginning of the period. This feature will be
   slow to progress to the east until the large-scale, upper-level
   trough across the west begins to deepen by D5/Thursday. At the
   surface, ridging from southern Oregon into the central Great Basin
   combined with a coastal trough in southern California will promote
   offshore winds through early D4/Wednesday. For D5/Thursday and
   beyond, the deepening western trough will increase mid-level flow
   across the Great Basin and central/southern High Plains. Lee
   troughing/cyclogenesis will further enhance surface flow across the
   southern High Plains late in the period.

   ...D3/Tuesday into D4/Wednesday...Southern California...
   With a favorable LAX/TPH pressure gradient and upper-level support,
   Tuesday morning/early afternoon appears to be the period of greatest
   overlap of strong surface winds and low RH. By mid/late afternoon,
   winds will likely weaken while RH continues to drop. There is
   uncertainty is with regard to how far strong surface winds will push
   near the coast. For early D4/Wednesday, pressure gradient and some
   high resolution guidance suggest that a few hours of elevated
   conditions may occur; however, confidence is too low on the duration
   of these conditions to include probabilities.

   ...D5/Thursday through D8/Sunday...
   Strong mid-level flow associated with the western trough as well as
   lee troughing/cyclogenesis in the Plains will lead to potentially
   critical fire weather from portions of the Great Basin into the
   central/southern High Plains. Modest model discrepancy in critical
   conditions as well as potential precipitation keeps confidence too
   low to introduced probabilities.

   ..Wendt.. 09/22/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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