ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 202112

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0312 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2019

   Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

   The first in a series of progressive mid-level troughs will move
   across the central and eastern CONUS Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday.
   Another mid-level trough will begin to deepen across the western
   CONUS Days 5-6/Sunday-Monday, before ejecting into the central CONUS
   Days 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday. The surface mass response with these
   progressive troughs will result in relatively cool conditions
   throughout most of the CONUS, with occasions of accumulating
   precipitation across much of the western, central, and southern
   states, tempering the wildfire-spread threat through at least Day
   5/Sunday. Some wildfire-spread threat may then develop across
   portions of the southern High Plains and northern California with
   the intensification of the second aforementioned trough.

   ...Days 5-7/Sunday-Tuesday...
   Ahead of the deepening trough, strong winds aloft will overspread a
   relatively dry boundary layer, that with afternoon heating and
   mixing, combined with downslope flow from the higher terrain, may
   support strong and dry westerly winds. Such conditions will be
   localized across the southern High Plains on Day 5/Sunday, but will
   become more widespread Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday. Also next
   Monday-Tuesday, a northerly component of the stronger flow aloft on
   the back side of the trough will coincide with the Sacramento Valley
   and surrounding areas in California, where dry and breezy northerly
   surface winds are also expected. Fuels are quite dry here, and  with
   little precipitation accumulations noted so far, these fuels should
   remain supportive of wildfire-spread potential. Substantial
   differences in model solutions regarding placement of the trough
   preclude probabilities for critical conditions in either the High
   Plains or California at this time, though probabilities for critical
   conditions may be needed in future outlooks should more agreement be
   noted among guidance members.

   ..Squitieri.. 11/20/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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