Updated: Thu Mar 28 21:48:02 UTC 2024
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 28, 2024
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Risk |
Area (sq. mi.) |
Area Pop. |
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area |
D4 |
71,178 |
385,066 |
Roswell, NM...Clovis, NM...Hobbs, NM...Carlsbad, NM...Hereford, TX... |
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D3 | Sat, Mar 30, 2024 - Sun, Mar 31, 2024 |
D6 | Tue, Apr 02, 2024 - Wed, Apr 03, 2024 |
D4 | Sun, Mar 31, 2024 - Mon, Apr 01, 2024 |
D7 | Wed, Apr 03, 2024 - Thu, Apr 04, 2024 |
D5 | Mon, Apr 01, 2024 - Tue, Apr 02, 2024 |
D8 | Thu, Apr 04, 2024 - Fri, Apr 05, 2024 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
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ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 282143
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
Zonal flow aloft will quickly amplify ahead of a Pacific trough
forecast to move onshore this weekend. Strong southwesterly flow
will overspread the Southwest and southern high Plains, deepening a
surface low over the southern Rockies. Strong surface winds are
expected over much of the southern Plains along with an increasingly
warm and dry air mass. As the upper-level system moves east, strong
winds and lower RH will continue into early next week before a cold
front moves south. Critical fire-weather concerns appear likely this
weekend and early next week.
...Southern High Plains...
Critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this weekend and into
early next week as the main wave of the aforementioned Pacific
trough moves over the southern Plains. Accompanied by a powerful
80-100 kt mid-level jet streak, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected
over southeastern CO. The enhanced flow aloft and strong low-level
pressure gradient will help drive 25-35 mph sustained surface winds
across parts of the TX Panhandle, eastern NM and western OK. Dry
downslope winds and warm temperatures behind a dryline/lee trough
should also support widespread humidity values below 15%. The
overlap of strong winds and several hours of hot and dry surface
conditions will be favorable for widespread critical fire-weather
concerns, especially D5/Sun.
Fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D6/Mon as the upper
trough and surface low move to the east. Confidence on the coverage
and duration of critical fire-weather concerns is lower owing to
uncertainty on a potential frontal passage. However, gusty winds and
lower humidity still appear likely over southern portions of the TX
Panhandle into southeastern NM and west TX. Through the remainder of
next week, fire-weather concerns appear much lower as the cold front
is forecast to move southeastward ushering in a colder air mass.
..Lyons.. 03/28/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
$$
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
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Source: NWS Fire Weather Outlook |
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