NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 23 21:54:02 UTC 2020
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 23, 2020
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Tue, Feb 25, 2020 - Wed, Feb 26, 2020 D6Fri, Feb 28, 2020 - Sat, Feb 29, 2020
D4Wed, Feb 26, 2020 - Thu, Feb 27, 2020 D7Sat, Feb 29, 2020 - Sun, Mar 01, 2020
D5Thu, Feb 27, 2020 - Fri, Feb 28, 2020 D8Sun, Mar 01, 2020 - Mon, Mar 02, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 232150

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0350 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2020

   Valid 251200Z - 021200Z

   A mid-level trough will move east across the central and eastern
   CONUS Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday, with surface high pressure and
   associated cooler temperatures sweeping across much of the CONUS. A
   second mid-level impulse is expected to pivot around the backside of
   the larger-scale trough, reinforcing high pressure across the
   central U.S on Day 5/Thursday. Thereafter, medium-range guidance
   depicts a mid-level ridge traversing the western and central CONUS
   on Days 6-7/Friday-Saturday, with a mid-level trough amplifying
   across the southwest CONUS and a surface low developing across the
   central Plains Day 8/Sunday.

   ...Day 3/Tuesday...
   With high pressure overspreading much of the Inter-mountain West, a
   tight pressure gradient will develop across southern California. Dry
   and breezy offshore flow is expected throughout the day, though
   marginally receptive fuels and recent rainfall are expected to
   mitigate large-scale wildfire spread.

   Meanwhile, the southerly surge of a cooler airmass across the
   southern High Plains will promote windy, dry conditions across
   southern New Mexico into Far West Texas by afternoon peak heating.
   Some slight disagreement among short-term model members regarding
   where the best overlap of favorable wind/RH will be. Given model
   disagreement and marginally receptive fuels across the region,
   critical probabilities will be withheld, though an elevated area may
   be needed in future outlooks.

   ...Day 4-8/Wednesday-Sunday...
   Though cooler temperatures will prevail across much of the southern
   High Plains through the remainder of the period, dry and breezy
   conditions, combined with a relative lack of forecast accumulating
   precipitation, will encourage the curing of finer fuels. Towards
   next weekend (Days 7-8), strong and dry southwesterly flow will
   return to the High Plains with the onset of lee troughing and
   subsequent low development in the central Plains. Still, model
   guidance differs regarding the placement of critical wind/RH
   overlap, and conditions will continue to be monitored for the need
   of critical probabilities in later outlooks.

   ..Squitieri.. 02/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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