NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sun Sep 22 22:02:03 UTC 2019
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 22, 2019
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Tue, Sep 24, 2019 - Wed, Sep 25, 2019 D6Fri, Sep 27, 2019 - Sat, Sep 28, 2019
D4Wed, Sep 25, 2019 - Thu, Sep 26, 2019 D7Sat, Sep 28, 2019 - Sun, Sep 29, 2019
D5Thu, Sep 26, 2019 - Fri, Sep 27, 2019 D8Sun, Sep 29, 2019 - Mon, Sep 30, 2019
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 222159

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0459 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019

   Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

   A cutoff, upper-level low will be situated across the Lower Colorado
   River Valley at the beginning of the period. This feature will be
   slow to progress to the east until the large-scale, upper-level
   trough across the west begins to deepen by D5/Thursday. At the
   surface, ridging from southern Oregon into the central Great Basin
   combined with a coastal trough in southern California will promote
   offshore winds through early D4/Wednesday. For D5/Thursday and
   beyond, the deepening western trough will increase mid-level flow
   across the Great Basin and central/southern High Plains. Lee
   troughing/cyclogenesis will further enhance surface flow across the
   southern High Plains late in the period.

   ...D3/Tuesday into D4/Wednesday...Southern California...
   With a favorable LAX/TPH pressure gradient and upper-level support,
   Tuesday morning/early afternoon appears to be the period of greatest
   overlap of strong surface winds and low RH. By mid/late afternoon,
   winds will likely weaken while RH continues to drop. There is
   uncertainty is with regard to how far strong surface winds will push
   near the coast. For early D4/Wednesday, pressure gradient and some
   high resolution guidance suggest that a few hours of elevated
   conditions may occur; however, confidence is too low on the duration
   of these conditions to include probabilities.

   ...D5/Thursday through D8/Sunday...
   Strong mid-level flow associated with the western trough as well as
   lee troughing/cyclogenesis in the Plains will lead to potentially
   critical fire weather from portions of the Great Basin into the
   central/southern High Plains. Modest model discrepancy in critical
   conditions as well as potential precipitation keeps confidence too
   low to introduced probabilities.

   ..Wendt.. 09/22/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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