NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 27 21:39:03 UTC 2020
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 27, 2020
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D4 53,928 1,218,600 Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Roswell, NM...Clovis, NM...
D3Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - Mon, Mar 30, 2020 D6Wed, Apr 01, 2020 - Thu, Apr 02, 2020
D4Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - Tue, Mar 31, 2020 D7Thu, Apr 02, 2020 - Fri, Apr 03, 2020
D5Tue, Mar 31, 2020 - Wed, Apr 01, 2020 D8Fri, Apr 03, 2020 - Sat, Apr 04, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 272135

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0435 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

   Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

   A progressive upper-level pattern will continue across the CONUS
   through the outlook period. An upper-level trough is likely to move
   from the Great Lakes into the Northeast on Day 3/Sunday - Day
   4/Monday with another mid-level shortwave trough likely developing
   over the Southwest and moving across the southern Plains on Day
   3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday. Strong mid-level flow (50+ knots) will
   remain over portions of the Southwest and southern Plains through
   Day 4/Monday. An associated surface cyclone is forecast to track
   eastward across Texas and through the Southeast with a trailing cold
   front bringing dry/breezy conditions behind it on Day 4/Monday - Day

   ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Southwest/southern Plains...
   West-southwest flow aloft will result in downslope winds and lee
   troughing across the southern High Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Southerly
   surface winds will increase amid a dry airmass likely resulting in
   elevated to locally critical conditions during the afternoon and
   into the evening.

   On Day 4/Monday, strong mid-level flow will arrive with a surface
   cyclone developing across the southern High Plains. Strong westerly
   surface winds will develop behind a sharpening dryline aided by 75+
   knot mid-level flow resulting in critical conditions. Fuels are
   continuing to cure across the region, especially after
   recent/ongoing dry/windy conditions. While ERCs remain mostly
   near/above normal and some green-up is occurring, fine fuels are
   receptive and 100-hour dead fuel moisture values are dropping (per
   Texas Forestry Service).

   Late in the period, dry/windy conditions may develop again as a
   mid-level trough associated with the subtropical jet moves across
   the Southwest/southern High Plains/northern Mexico. However, there
   is too much uncertainty regarding timing/magnitude of fire weather
   conditions to introduce probabilities at this time.

   ...Day 6/Wednesday: Florida Peninsula...
   Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may result in critical conditions
   on Day 6/Wednesday. Dry/breezy conditions are also possible on Day
   5/Tuesday across eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula with deep
   boundary layer mixing expected. ERCs are mostly above the 85th
   percentile with some areas nearing the 95th percentile across
   central/southern Florida with little to no rain over the last two
   weeks. Current forecast guidance is indicating isolated to scattered
   light rain Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with the cold front
   passage, which may mitigate fire weather conditions.

   ..Nauslar.. 03/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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