NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 23 21:26:02 UTC 2019
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 23, 2019
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Mon, Mar 25, 2019 - Tue, Mar 26, 2019 D6Thu, Mar 28, 2019 - Fri, Mar 29, 2019
D4Tue, Mar 26, 2019 - Wed, Mar 27, 2019 D7Fri, Mar 29, 2019 - Sat, Mar 30, 2019
D5Wed, Mar 27, 2019 - Thu, Mar 28, 2019 D8Sat, Mar 30, 2019 - Sun, Mar 31, 2019
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 232124

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0424 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

   Valid 251200Z - 311200Z


   A mid-level ridge and associated surface high will traverse the
   central/south-central CONUS during Day 3/Monday. By Day 4/Tuesday, a
   mid-level trough will impinge on the Four Corners region, with lee
   troughing and associated southeasterly flow contributing to
   moistening low-level conditions across the southern High Plains,
   with relatively quiescent surface winds expected.

   By Day 5/Wednesday, the aforementioned mid-level trough will
   approach the southern Plains. Stronger westerly downslope flow will
   increase across the southern High Plains, with drier air mixing
   eastward from the lee of the Southern Rockies. On Day 6/Thursday,
   the mid-level trough, with a belt of 60+ knot mid-level flow, will
   eject into the central CONUS, with a surface low intensifying in the
   central Plains. Strong westerly winds amidst critically low RH are
   expected across the central/southern High Plains, where little in
   the way of additional accumulated precipitation is expected. Model
   agreement for potentially critical wind/RH conditions appears to be
   situated in southeast Colorado, into eastern New Mexico and far-west
   Texas, where 40% probabilities for critical conditions have been

   For Day 7/Friday onward, model guidance sharply diverges in
   solutions, reducing confidence for the placement of critical
   probability delineations. The ECMWF depicts a trough digging farther
   south into the southern Plains, with a cold front surging south
   across the area. The GFS however, shows a less amplified trough,
   with a surface low developing across the southern High Plains.

   ..Squitieri.. 03/23/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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