NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 28 21:48:02 UTC 2024
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 28, 2024
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D4 71,178 385,066 Roswell, NM...Clovis, NM...Hobbs, NM...Carlsbad, NM...Hereford, TX...
D3Sat, Mar 30, 2024 - Sun, Mar 31, 2024 D6Tue, Apr 02, 2024 - Wed, Apr 03, 2024
D4Sun, Mar 31, 2024 - Mon, Apr 01, 2024 D7Wed, Apr 03, 2024 - Thu, Apr 04, 2024
D5Mon, Apr 01, 2024 - Tue, Apr 02, 2024 D8Thu, Apr 04, 2024 - Fri, Apr 05, 2024
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 282143

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0443 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

   Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

   Zonal flow aloft will quickly amplify ahead of a Pacific trough
   forecast to move onshore this weekend. Strong southwesterly flow
   will overspread the Southwest and southern high Plains, deepening a
   surface low over the southern Rockies. Strong surface winds are
   expected over much of the southern Plains along with an increasingly
   warm and dry air mass. As the upper-level system moves east, strong
   winds and lower RH will continue into early next week before a cold
   front moves south. Critical fire-weather concerns appear likely this
   weekend and early next week.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this weekend and into
   early next week as the main wave of the aforementioned Pacific
   trough moves over the southern Plains. Accompanied by a powerful
   80-100 kt mid-level jet streak, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected
   over southeastern CO. The enhanced flow aloft and strong low-level
   pressure gradient will help drive 25-35 mph sustained surface winds
   across parts of the TX Panhandle, eastern NM and western OK. Dry
   downslope winds and warm temperatures behind a dryline/lee trough
   should also support widespread humidity values below 15%. The
   overlap of strong winds and several hours of hot and dry surface
   conditions will be favorable for widespread critical fire-weather
   concerns, especially D5/Sun.

   Fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D6/Mon as the upper
   trough and surface low move to the east. Confidence on the coverage
   and duration of critical fire-weather concerns is lower owing to
   uncertainty on a potential frontal passage. However, gusty winds and
   lower humidity still appear likely over southern portions of the TX
   Panhandle into southeastern NM and west TX. Through the remainder of
   next week, fire-weather concerns appear much lower as the cold front
   is forecast to move southeastward ushering in a colder air mass.

   ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      


To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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