NWS Climate Prediction Center



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Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

Prognostic Discussions


Valid: Feb 28 - Mar 03, 2024 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Mar 01 - 07, 2024 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Feb 22, 2024


Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EST Thu February 22 2024 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 28 - MAR 03, 2024 
 
Today’s dynamical model solutions are in good agreement on the predicted  
mid-level mean height pattern over the forecast domain during the 6-10 day  
period. However, there are significant day-to-day variations within the period,  
and between models. The latest ensemble mean height forecasts depict a positive  
height anomaly center south of the Aleutians in the vicinity of 40-50N/165-180W  
(about +225 meters above normal on the manual height blend), associated with a  
highly anomalous mid-level ridge that extends northward over the Bering Sea and  
far eastern Siberia. Downstream, a highly anomalous mid-level trough is  
predicted from much of Alaska southward across the far eastern Pacific and  
northwestern contiguous U.S. (CONUS). Widespread below-normal 500-hPa heights  
accompany this trough, with a negative height anomaly center (about -225 meters  
below normal on the manual height blend) depicted near the British Columbia  
coast. Over the central and eastern CONUS and adjacent southeastern Canada,  
well above-normal 500-hPa heights are forecast, associated with relatively low  
amplitude flow. The manual height blend depicts a maximum positive height  
anomaly near +225 meters over the southern maritime provinces of Canada. 
 
On day 6, the ECMWF ensemble mean (ECENS), GEFS, and to a lesser extent  
Canadian ensemble mean (CMCE), predict a rapidly moving and short-lived  
shortwave trough over the north-central CONUS. By day 8, this trough has been  
replaced by a mid-level ridge centered over the Upper Great Lakes region. A  
less notable difference between the various ensemble means shows up in the  
daily forecasts during days 8 and 9. The 0z ECENS maintains an amplified ridge  
across the Bering Sea and eastern Siberia (which favors a colder pattern for  
Alaska), while the 0z GEFS and 0z CMCE start to flatten the ridge over this  
region (which favors a milder pattern for Alaska). 
 
The 6-10 day temperature outlook favors increased chances for above-normal  
temperatures from approximately the northern Rockies and eastern Intermountain  
region eastward across the Central and Eastern CONUS (excluding southern Texas  
where near-normal temperatures are favored), with highest probabilities for  
above-normal temperatures exceeding 80 percent over parts of the Northeast.  
This is consistent with the predicted manual height blend, the ECENS and CMCE  
reforecast-calibrated temperature forecasts, and the statistical temperature  
analogs derived from the manual height blend. Below-normal temperature chances  
are elevated across the far West in proximity to a mid-level trough and  
below-normal heights, and raw (uncalibrated) model temperatures from the  
ensemble means. Today’s 6-10 day temperature outlook reflects a compromise  
between the cooler raw model temperature forecasts and the warmer  
reforecast-calibrated temperatures over the western CONUS. Across Alaska,  
surface temperature tools are in unanimous agreement favoring increased chances  
for below-normal temperatures, with probabilities exceeding 90 percent over  
south-central Alaska. The exception includes the western Aleutians, where   
above-normal temperatures are favored. This scenario is also consistent with  
the predicted manual height blend. For Hawaii, near to below-normal  
temperatures are favored, representing a compromise between automated and  
consolidated temperature tools. 
 
The 6-10 day precipitation outlook favors increased odds for above-normal  
precipitation over much of the western Lower 48 states, due to the proximity of  
a strong mid-level trough and moist, onshore flow south of surface low pressure  
off the British Columbia coast. Chances for wetter-than-normal conditions may  
exceed 70 percent in far northwestern California. For nearly all areas east of  
the Mississippi River, and extending southwestward across southern Texas,  
above-normal precipitation chances are increased. This is initially due to a  
low pressure system predicted to move across the Eastern CONUS, followed by an  
increase in southerly return flow of moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. Between  
the storm systems anticipated over the East and the West, the chances for  
below-normal precipitation are slightly elevated from most of the Four Corners  
region northeastward across most of the Great Plains into the Middle and Upper  
Mississippi Valley. For the Four Corners region, this is a complete reversal  
from yesterday’s outlook which favored above-normal precipitation; however,  
most of the precipitation is now expected to fall just prior to the start of  
the 6-10 day period. For Alaska, a mid-level trough predicted over eastern  
portions of the state favor below-normal precipitation across the northern,  
central, and southwestern Mainland, and the Alaska Peninsula. For Southeast  
Alaska, near to above-normal precipitation is favored, closer to the surface  
low pressure trough anticipated just off the coast. The Hawaiian precipitation  
outlook favors mostly above-normal precipitation, supported by the automated  
and consolidated precipitation tools. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 33% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 34% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 8, and 33% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day  
8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, given  
reasonably good agreement in the mean height, temperature and precipitation  
patterns, offset by expected significant day-to-day variability within the 6-10  
day time frame. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 01 - 07 2024  
 
For Week-2, the various ensemble mean solutions depict a mean mid-level  
circulation pattern that is similar to the one predicted for the earlier 6-10  
day period. The three primary longwave features expected to affect North  
America include large anomalous ridges over the north-central Pacific (40-45N,  
170-180W) and in the vicinity of Maine. The 6z GEFS differs in its prediction  
of the largest positive 500-hPa height anomalies spread out from near James Bay  
eastward to Newfoundland. A large anomalous trough is favored from Alaska  
southeastward over portions of the western CONUS. The manual height blend  
depicts broad but weak cyclonic curvature across the Lower 48 states, with  
below-normal 500-hPa heights favored across much of the western third of the  
CONUS and above-normal 500-hPa heights favored over the central and eastern  
thirds of the CONUS. 
 
The week-2 temperature outlook favors below-normal temperature chances for most  
of the western third of the CONUS. Similar to what was done for the 6-10 day  
temperature outlook, the week-2 temperature outlook represents a compromise  
between cooler raw model temperatures and warmer reforecast-calibrated  
temperatures. This is also consistent with a mid-level trough and below-normal  
heights predicted across this region. From approximately the Rockies eastward  
across the Central and Eastern CONUS, odds mostly favor above-normal  
temperatures, with 80 percent or better chances indicated from the Upper  
Mississippi Valley eastward across the Great Lakes region. This is consistent  
with the forecast of mid-level anomalous ridging, and most of today’s week-2  
temperature guidance. In Alaska, most tools continue to favor below-normal  
temperatures state-wide, with the exception of the western Aleutians where near  
to above-normal temperatures are slightly favored. Farther south in Hawaii,  
near-normal temperatures are favored, representing a compromise between  
automated and consolidated temperature tools. 
 
As was the case for the earlier 6-10 day precipitation outlook, the week-2  
precipitation outlook favors increased chances of above-normal precipitation  
across much of the Lower 48 states. In the West, this is due to the proximity  
of a significant mid-level trough and moist, onshore flow associated with a  
surface trough of low pressure that extends from just off the coast of  
South-Central and Southeast Alaska to near the coasts of the Pacific Northwest  
and California. With the Alaska 500-hPa trough expected to reload farther west  
(according to the ECENS and GEFS), surface low pressure is likely to focus near  
the coast of Southeast Alaska, increasing the chances for above-normal  
precipitation there. For most of Mainland Alaska, however, drier-than-normal  
conditions are favored, with odds exceeding 40 percent over west-central  
portions of the state. Across the Central and Eastern CONUS, near to  
above-normal precipitation is favored for most areas. This is consistent with  
increased southerly return flow from the Gulf of Mexico, and potential lee  
cyclogenesis over the central or northern High Plains region, with the storm  
center subsequently tracking towards the Great Lakes. The exception is New  
England, where below-normal precipitation is favored near the center of a  
strong mid-level ridge. Above-normal precipitation chances are enhanced across  
the Hawaiian Islands, as depicted by the automated and consolidated  
precipitation tools. 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 33% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 34% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 11, and 33% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on  
Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Near-average, 3 out of 5, based on  
good overall agreement among the mid-level height and surface temperature  
patterns, offset by considerable uncertainty among the precipitation tools. 
 
FORECASTER: Anthony A 
 
Notes: 
 
 
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual  
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In  
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as  
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below 
 
 
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,  
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average  
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,  
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values  
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a  
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal  
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases  
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no  
precipitation. 
 
 
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in  
the climate outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
March 21. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19590217 - 20010216 - 19900302 - 19920210 - 19850307 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:  
20010214 - 19900302 - 19730201 - 19590218 - 20000219 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Feb 28 - Mar 03, 2024 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A      
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      N    A      
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N      
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     N    B     COLORADO    A    B      
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B      
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B      
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     A    B      
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N      
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    N      
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    B      
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    B     AK INT BSN  B    B      
AK S INT    B    B     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    B    N      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Mar 01 - 07 2024 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A      
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A      
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N      
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    A    N      
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A      
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A      
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     A    N      
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A      
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A      
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    N      
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE       A    B      
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    B      
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N      
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    B      
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    B     AK INT BSN  B    B      
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    B    A      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   


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