NWS Climate Prediction Center



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Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

Prognostic Discussions


Valid: Jan 26 - 30, 2022 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jan 28 - Feb 03, 2022 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jan 20, 2022


Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EST Thu January 20 2022 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 26 - 30 2022 
 
A high amplitude pattern is likely to persist into late January with a 500-hPa  
ridge (trough) over the northeast Pacific (eastern North America). The ensemble  
means continue to depict the amplified ridge just offshore of the West Coast,  
retrograding westward closer to the Aleutians by the end of January. This ridge  
retrogression to near the Aleutians would be more consistent with La NiƱa but  
it is expected to take time for a downstream trough to develop over western  
North America.  
 
The amplified 500-hPa trough over eastern North America favors a continuation  
of the anomalously cold temperatures from the Mississippi Valley to the East  
Coast, along with the southern Great Plains. Model solutions feature strong  
surface high pressure shifting southeastward over the east-central CONUS on  
days 6 and 7 (Jan 26th and 27th). Negative temperature anomalies of -10 to -20  
degrees F are forecast to accompany this surface high. A 500-hPa ridge with  
associated above normal heights is forecast to extend east to include much of  
the western CONUS which favors near to above normal temperatures for this  
region. The two most likely areas for above normal temperatures include the  
desert Southwest and Northern High Plains, due to good model agreement. Also,  
the Northern High Plains remain snow-free, which is unusual for this time of  
year. With the absence of cold air advection forecast during this 5-day period,  
the sparse snow coverage is expected to contribute to warming surface  
temperatures. A small area with enhanced probabilities of below normal  
temperatures forecast across parts of the Great Basin is related to predicted  
low-level inversions.  
 
Forecast confidence in the precipitation outlook across the eastern CONUS  
remains low due to high uncertainty in the interaction between shortwave  
troughs in the northern and southern streams. Given the progressive mid-level  
flow, probabilities of below normal precipitation are slightly elevated for the  
interior Northeast and Ohio to Tennessee Valleys. Near normal precipitation is  
more probable closer to the East Coast, Gulf Coast, and Florida as waves of low  
pressure are predicted to track along a mean frontal boundary. A two-category  
change in the precipitation outlook (wet to dry) was necessary across parts of  
the Southern Rockies and Central Plains as the predicted associated shortwave  
trough has shifted south in today's 6-10 day period. Below normal precipitation  
remains likely across much of the western CONUS due to mean 500-hPa ridging  
upstream over the North Pacific.  
 
Near to above normal precipitation is favored for Alaska due to modest onshore  
flow and a west-to-east storm track. This predicted surface pattern also  
increases probabilities of above normal temperatures along the eastern border  
of Mainland Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle. Negative sea surface temperature  
anomalies slightly favor below normal temperatures along coastal western  
Alaska, the Aleutians, and Alaska Peninsula.  
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 50% of Today's 0z  
European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 50% of Today's operational 0z  
ECMWF centered on Day 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good  
agreement among the temperature tools offset by low confidence in the  
precipitation outlook across the eastern CONUS. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 28 - FEB 03, 2022  
 
Ensemble means depict an intensification and slight eastward progression of the  
longwave ridge axis over the Northeast Pacific. Models subsequently develop a  
500-hPa trough over the western half of the CONUS, and increase heights over  
the eastern U.S. Despite the fact that this pattern is almost a completely  
reversal in the 500-hPa pattern over the CONUS since yesterday, today's  
ensemble means are in good agreement on some level of trough development in the  
West. The 0z ECMWF ensemble mean depicts the deepest trough, followed by the 0z  
Canadian ensemble mean. A teleconnection based on the strong positive height  
south of the Aleutians supports this solution, as well as the GFS ensemble's  
trend toward predicting a neutral to negative PNA towards the end of the week-2  
period. Given this, the significant change from both today's 6-10 day manual  
blend and yesterday's week-2 blend is justified. 
 
The significant increase in 500-hPa heights predicted in the eastern U.S.  
favors a much smaller coverage of below normal temperatures across the East. A  
forecast increase in return flow from the Gulf of Mexico favors a two category  
change (below to above) across the Southern and Central Plains and parts of the  
Mississippi Valley. A developing trough predicted over the western half of the  
CONUS favors below normal temperatures across much of the West (also resulting  
in a two category change in some places). 
 
With a trough expected to develop in the western CONUS, the pattern across the  
CONUS becomes favorable for precipitation to develop across parts of the  
Intermountain West, favoring near to above normal precipitation across the  
western CONUS. A transient pattern forecast over the eastern U.S., with several  
predicted shortwave troughs anticipated to support surface lows developing over  
parts of the East, favors near to above normal precipitation for the eastern  
U.S. Probabilities are still relatively low, however, as there is still a good  
deal of uncertainty in where and when storm systems may develop. 
 
A transition to a drier pattern is likely for Alaska heading through the week-2  
period as the high amplitude ridge becomes established from the Aleutians  
northward to the Bering Strait. Also, this longwave pattern would eventually  
result in the return of anomalous cold. 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 70% of Today's 0z  
European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Yesterday's 12z European  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 10  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Well below Average, 1 out of 5,  
due to a predicted significant longwave pattern transition resulting in  
significant changes between yesterday's and today's forecast, as well as  
between today's 6-10 day and week-2 forecasts. 
 
FORECASTER: Mike C 
 
Notes: 
 
 
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual  
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In  
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as  
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below 
 
 
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,  
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average  
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,  
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values  
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a  
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal  
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases  
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no  
precipitation. 
 
 
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in  
the climate outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
February 17. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19990104 - 19620109 - 19630122 - 20020114 - 20090111 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19990103 - 19760201 - 19630122 - 20090112 - 20040120 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jan 26 - 30 2022 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  N    N     OREGON      N    B     NRN CALIF   N    B      
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       B    B     NEVADA      N    B      
W MONTANA   N    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     N    B      
UTAH        B    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    N    B      
NEW MEXICO  N    B     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    B      
NEBRASKA    N    B     KANSAS      N    B     OKLAHOMA    B    N      
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    N      
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B      
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    N     WISCONSIN   B    B      
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    B    B      
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    B      
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    B     NEW YORK    B    B      
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    B     MAINE       B    N      
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N      
PENN        B    B     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  B    B      
MARYLAND    B    B     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    B    B      
N CAROLINA  B    B     S CAROLINA  B    B     GEORGIA     B    B      
FL PNHDL    B    N     FL PENIN    B    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N      
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  N    A      
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    A    A      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jan 28 - Feb 03, 2022 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    N      
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A      
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A      
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    N    A      
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    N    A      
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A      
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N      
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    A      
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    N    A      
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    A      
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    N    A      
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    N      
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A      
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A      
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    B    A      
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    N      
FL PNHDL    B    N     FL PENIN    B    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N      
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  B    N      
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    B     AK PNHDL    B    B      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   


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