NWS Climate Prediction Center



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Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

Prognostic Discussions


Valid: Dec 12 - 16, 2022 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Dec 14 - 20, 2022 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Dec 06, 2022


Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EST Tue December 06 2022 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 12 - 16 2022 
 
A high amplitude blocking ridge (> +270 meter positive height anomaly center)  
is predicted across the Davis Strait during the 6-10 day period associated with  
negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation  
(AO). Model agreement has improved compared to yesterday regarding high  
amplitude troughing forecast to move across the CONUS during the period.  
Today’s manual height blend depicts above normal heights across much of Alaska  
associated with ridging which is forecast to expand across the state, with  
closer to normal heights predicted across the Panhandle. Below normal heights  
are indicated over much of the western and central CONUS, with the largest  
negative height anomalies over the Central and Southern Rockies and Plains.  
Above normal heights are favored across parts of the north-central and eastern  
CONUS due to the large ridge centered over the Davis Strait and increased  
ridging favored to develop downstream of the trough. 
 
Despite the negative NAO, above normal temperatures are forecast for the  
eastern half of the CONUS, supported by both the GEFS and ECMWF reforecast  
tools. The highest probabilities for above normal temperatures are predicted  
across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast due to increased southerly  
mid-level flow combined with greater influence from the expansive ridge over  
eastern Canada. Conversely, the troughing forecast across the western CONUS  
favors elevated probabilities for below normal temperatures extending from the  
Pacific Coast to the High Plains. Increased probabilities for below normal  
temperatures are also favored for the Alaska Panhandle and much of the  
southeastern Mainland, consistent with the GEFS and ECMWF reforecast tools.  
Slightly increased probabilities for above normal temperatures are highlighted  
across parts of the Aleutians and northern and western coast of the Mainland  
due to greater influence from ridging and below normal sea ice coverage over  
the Bering Sea. 
 
Due to the improving agreement regarding a high amplitude trough moving across  
the central CONUS, there is increasing confidence that a significant  
mid-latitude cyclone will develop across the east-central CONUS and track  
toward the Great Lakes around day-7 (Dec 13). Precipitable water values are  
forecast to be greater than normal over much of the eastern CONUS for  
mid-December given the above normal temperatures and increased southerly  
mid-level flow ahead of the system. The highest probabilities for above normal  
precipitation (>70 percent) are indicated across parts of the Midwest  
corresponding with the track of the surface low and relatively lower  
precipitation climatologies compared to further south. The last several  
deterministic GFS and ECMWF solutions depict a winter storm across the Northern  
Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley to the northwest of the storm track  
lingering into day-8 (Dec 14). As the system nears the Canadian Border, some  
ensemble members of the ECMWF and GEFS transfer energy to the Atlantic Coast,  
where a new surface low may develop further enhancing precipitation over the  
Northeast. Therefore, elevated above normal precipitation probabilities (>50  
percent) are expanded over parts of the region. 
 
Onshore flow across the West Coast of the CONUS favors above normal  
precipitation over the West, although there is greater uncertainty later in the  
period as models differ in the evolution of the mid-level height pattern by  
day-10, with the ECMWF ensemble favoring more ridging and drier conditions  
compared to the GEFS. Increased probabilities for below normal precipitation  
are forecast across parts of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico, farther  
displaced from the troughing and mean storm track. Near to above normal  
precipitation is favored for Alaska due to predicted shortwave troughs to  
intermittently pass through the mean ridging bringing intermittent periods of  
increased southerly flow and enhanced precipitation to the state. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 20% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 5% of Today's operational 0z GFS centered on  
Day 8, 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 5% of  
Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8, and 20% of Today's 0z Canadian  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to  
improving model agreement regarding a significant storm system across the  
central and eastern CONUS, offset by some uncertainty in the pattern evolution  
over the western CONUS later in the period. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 14 - 20 2022  
 
There are increasing signals that the high latitude blocking may begin to  
weaken during the week-2 period. Forecasts from both the GEFS and ECMWF depict  
the NAO trending toward a neutral phase by the end of the period, although the  
AO forecast shows much more variability among ensemble members. The forecast  
across the CONUS is highly uncertain, although there is a general trend toward  
more troughing, with models differing in the exact placement and timing. Given  
the uncertainty, the week-2 manual blend depicts near normal 500-hPa heights  
across much of the CONUS, with slightly above normal heights indicated along  
the Canadian Border. Above normal heights are predicted across most of Alaska  
as more ridging builds across the state, although troughing across eastern  
Russia and the Bering Sea may begin to erode some of the positive height  
anomalies across western Alaska by the end of the period. 
 
The increased troughing in the East during week-2 favors the elevated below  
normal temperature probabilities established over the West to spread into the  
central CONUS and parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. This is consistent  
with the ECMWF reforecast tool, with the GEFS tool being substantially warmer.  
However, the uncalibrated guidance is cooler in the GEFS supporting the  
increased probabilities for below normal temperatures forecast over these  
areas. The reforecast tools continue to support high probabilities for above  
normal temperatures across the Great Lakes and Northeast, although relatively  
cooler conditions may begin to arrive by the second half of the period as the  
ridging over the Davis Strait weakens. Increased probabilities for near to  
above normal temperatures are favored across most of Alaska underneath positive  
height anomalies. The only exception is the Panhandle, where below normal  
temperatures remain favored. 
 
Precipitation signals during week-2 are weak due to the uncertainty in the  
mid-level height pattern. A more zonal mid-level flow or troughing favors near  
to slightly above normal precipitation probabilities for the CONUS. Larger  
probabilities (>40 percent) for above normal precipitation are indicated across  
portions of the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to surface low pressure  
tracking into southern Canada early in the period (see 6-10 day discussion),  
and possibly transferring to the Northeast coast. The deterministic GFS and  
some GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members indicate a second system developing toward  
the end of week-2, which may bring enhanced precipitation to similar areas, but  
perhaps focused slightly more east compared to the first system. Near to above  
normal precipitation is favored across Alaska due to increasing influence of  
troughing over eastern Russia and the Bering Sea, and supported by the  
consolidated reforecast tool 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 25% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on  
Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to  
good model agreement regarding a significant storm system in the eastern CONUS  
early in week-2, offset by increased uncertainty in the evolution of the  
pattern following this system. 
 
FORECASTER: Thomas Collow 
 
Notes: 
 
 
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual  
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In  
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as  
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below 
 
 
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,  
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average  
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,  
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values  
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a  
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal  
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases  
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no  
precipitation. 
 
 
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in  
the climate outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
December 15. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:  
20081215 - 19721205 - 19981220 - 19701126 - 19721210 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19721205 - 20081214 - 19721210 - 19841219 - 19981219 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Dec 12 - 16 2022 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A      
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A      
W MONTANA   B    N     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A      
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    A      
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A      
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A      
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     N    B      
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A      
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N      
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  B    N      
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    B    N      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Dec 14 - 20 2022 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  B    N     OREGON      B    N     NRN CALIF   B    N      
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       B    N     NEVADA      B    N      
W MONTANA   B    N     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A      
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO    B    A      
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A      
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    N      
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     B    N      
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    N      
ARKANSAS    B    N     LOUISIANA   B    N     WISCONSIN   A    A      
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    A    A      
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    N    A      
TENNESSEE   N    N     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     N    A      
FL PNHDL    N    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A      
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  N    A      
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    B    N      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   


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