NWS Climate Prediction Center



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Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

Prognostic Discussions


Valid: Aug 23 - 27, 2022 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Aug 25 - 31, 2022 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Aug 17, 2022


Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Wed August 17 2022 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 23 - 27 2022 
 
A large ridge over Canada depicted in the 500-hPa height anomaly map is  
beginning to weaken after persisting for nearly a week while a trough continues  
to strengthen off the coast of Greenland and across the Labrador Sea. The  
result is a pair of anomalous ridges, one centered over southern British  
Columbia, and a second weaker ridge over the Canadian Maritimes. Upstream, an  
area of troughing persists over the North Pacific south of the Aleutian  
Islands, although this feature has been weakening and retrograding slightly in  
recent days. Weak troughing over the southeastern CONUS continues in current  
model solutions as well, although the strength of this feature has diminished  
from depictions earlier this week. 
 
Today’s 6-10 day temperature outlook is very similar to yesterday. Above-normal  
temperatures are favored for the northwest CONUS and New England. The area of  
near-normal temperatures over the Great Lakes is shifted slightly westward  
relative to yesterday due to the trough over western Canada being shifted  
westward when compared with yesterday’s model solutions. Below-normal  
temperatures continue to be favored for the central CONUS and the Desert  
Southwest due to continued monsoon activity and a frontal boundary situated  
over the Central Plains, which is expected to bring ample precipitation to the  
region. As the trough over the North Pacific shifts south and west away from  
Alaska, above-normal temperatures are favored for most of the state. 
 
With continued monsoon activity and a frontal boundary across the middle of the  
country east of the Rockies, a broad swath of enhanced above-normal  
precipitation probabilities are indicated for the CONUS, from the Great Basin  
eastward across the Central Plains and covering most of the East Coast. The  
highest probability of above normal precipitation is indicated for a broad area  
centered over Arkansas. Below-average precipitation is favored for portions of  
the upper Midwest and the northwest CONUS. Above-normal precipitation is  
favored for the southern coast of Alaska due to a regime of onshore flow during  
the forecast period. 
 
 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 25% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 38% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 8, and 37% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day  
8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to  
strong agreement between dynamical models. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 25 - 31 2022  
 
For the past several days model solutions on the 500-hPa height anomaly field  
have shown less coherence when compared to the 6-10 day forecast period, and  
this trend continues today. The overall synoptic pattern is similar in this  
period with respect to the 6-10 day period, but the magnitude of anomalies are  
much weaker. The most coherent features continue to be broad ridging over  
Canada and weak troughing over the southeastern CONUS. The 500-hPa ridge axis  
over the western CONUS continues to be situated in a favorable location to  
support monsoon activity, which has been quite active this summer and appears  
poised to continue into the 8-14 day period. 
 
The 8-14 day temperature outlook is very similar relative to yesterday, and to  
the 6-10 day outlook for today. Above-average temperatures continue to be  
favored for the Pacific Northwest and New England under continued ridging.  
Chances for below-normal temperatures have increased relative to yesterday  
across the Great Lakes and Midwest as a trough pushes south into central  
Canada. Continued monsoon activity and a persisting frontal boundary result in  
a tilt towards below-average temperatures for the central CONUS and portions of  
the Desert Southwest. For Alaska, above-normal temperatures are favored for  
most of the state as the anomalous troughing over the North Pacific subsides. 
 
An active pattern for the Lower 48 continues during the 8-14 day forecast  
period, with a tilt towards above-normal precipitation for much of the CONUS.  
The highest probabilities of above-normal precipitation are centered over the  
Four Corners due to a continued favorable environment for the North American  
monsoon. Below-normal precipitation continues to be favored for much of the  
north-central and northwestern CONUS under the influence of anomalous ridging  
over Canada. For much of Alaska, above-normal precipitation continues to be  
favored under a regime of onshore flow during the forecast period. 
 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 33% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 34% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 11, and 33% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on  
Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, due to  
moderate agreement between dynamical models, offset by low probability  
anomalies and diverging model solutions. 
 
FORECASTER: Daniel Barandiaran 
 
Notes: 
 
 
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual  
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In  
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as  
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below 
 
 
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,  
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average  
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,  
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values  
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a  
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal  
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases  
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no  
precipitation. 
 
 
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in  
the climate outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
August 18. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19810819 - 19980810 - 20080814 - 19810804 - 20000728 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:  
20080813 - 19810818 - 19810804 - 20090826 - 19980809 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Aug 23 - 27 2022 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    A      
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     N    A      
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    A      
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    N    A      
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A      
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A      
MINNESOTA   N    N     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    B    A      
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   N    N      
ILLINOIS    N    N     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    N    N      
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    B    A      
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    N      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     B    A      
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N      
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A      
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    N      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Aug 25 - 31 2022 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N      
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     N    A      
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    B    A      
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    N    N      
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A      
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A      
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    N      
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   N    N     WISCONSIN   B    N      
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    N    N      
INDIANA     N    N     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    B    A      
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    A    N      
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N      
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N      
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     N    A      
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N      
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A      
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    N      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   


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