Current Mesoscale Discussions
Updated:  Sun May 22 16:41:02 UTC 2022

Valid MD Image
MD Legend Image Mesoscale Discussion # 871 Mesoscale Discussion # 870 Mesoscale Discussion # 869 Mesoscale Discussion # 868
MD0871 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #0871
Issued: 22/1639 UTC
Until: 22/1845 UTC
Concerning: SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

MD0870 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #0870
Issued: 22/1630 UTC
Until: 22/1900 UTC
Concerning: SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

MD0869 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #0869
Issued: 22/1620 UTC
Until: 22/1845 UTC
Concerning: SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

MD0868 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #0868
Issued: 22/1548 UTC
Until: 22/1745 UTC
Concerning: SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

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Notice:  The responsibility for Heavy Rain Mesoscale Discussions has been transferred to the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) on April 9, 2013. Click here for the Service Change Notice. Archived Mesoscale Discussions
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 Storm Prediction Center
  • SPC MD 870

    Sun, 22 May 2022 16:31:04 +0000 UTC

    MD 0870 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND
    MD 0870 Image

    
    Mesoscale Discussion 0870
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1130 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022
    
    Areas affected...Portions of northern NY into New England
    
    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 
    
    Valid 221630Z - 221900Z
    
    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
    
    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms that develop this afternoon should be
    capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a
    tornado. Watch issuance will likely be needed to address this
    threat.
    
    DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have already developed over the
    past couple of hours across parts of ME. This activity is likely
    elevated above the stable marine layer, but it may pose an isolated
    threat for marginal hail in the short term. Otherwise, additional
    robust convection is forecast to develop in the next couple of hours
    across northern NY and into parts of New England. Large-scale ascent
    preceding an upper trough will aid this convective development, and
    enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow should support 35-45+ kt of
    deep-layer shear. Given the magnitude of this shear, a few
    supercells appear possible along with some multicell clusters.
    Low-level moisture across this area should remain slightly less
    compared to locations farther south, but MLCAPE generally ranging
    from 500-1500 J/kg should be sufficient for surface-based
    thunderstorms. Both large hail and damaging winds will be possible
    with any supercell that can develop, while the wind threat should be
    greater with multicell clusters. In addition, the low-level flow may
    be sufficient for around 100 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, mainly across
    parts of ME. Any semi-discrete thunderstorm could produce a brief
    tornado, but limited low-level hodograph curvature in various RAP
    forecast soundings suggest this threat should remain quite isolated.
    Regardless, the threat for scattered damaging winds and large hail
    will increase early this afternoon, and watch issuance will likely
    be needed in the next couple of hours.
    
    ..Gleason/Hart.. 05/22/2022
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...
    
    LAT...LON   44427435 45077352 45057158 45307141 45397091 46117038
                46737004 47516919 47526902 47336893 47436818 47086774
                45636753 44187021 43257242 43357316 43837332 43827403
                44427435 
    
    
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  • SPC MD 869

    Sun, 22 May 2022 16:21:03 +0000 UTC

    MD 0869 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL VA INTO THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE...MD...PA...NY...NJ...DC...AND A SMALL PART OF NEW ENGLAND
    MD 0869 Image

    
    Mesoscale Discussion 0869
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1120 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022
    
    Areas affected...Portions of northern/central VA into the eastern WV
    Panhandle...MD...PA...NY...NJ...DC...and a small part of New England
    
    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 
    
    Valid 221620Z - 221845Z
    
    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
    
    SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and hail should increase as
    thunderstorms develop by early this afternoon. Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch issuance is likely.
    
    DISCUSSION...Partly to mostly clear skies ahead of a front will
    allow the airmass to quickly destabilize into early this afternoon
    across parts of VA/MD/PA/NY and vicinity. A rather moist low-level
    airmass is in place across this region, with generally 60s to low
    70s surface dewpoints. Fairly cool mid-level temperatures are also
    present, which coupled with continued diurnal heating will likely
    support MLCAPE reaching 1000-2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Locally
    greater instability is possible across PA, MD, and VA where better
    low-level moisture is present. The stronger mid-level flow
    associated with an upper trough over the Great Lakes and eastern
    Canada should remain displaced mostly to the west of the surface
    warm sector. Still, around 25-35 kt of southwesterly winds at 500 mb
    (weaker with southward extent into the Mid-Atlantic) should foster
    similar values of effective bulk shear and some updraft
    organization. Mainly multicell clusters are expected to develop
    early this afternoon, initially over the higher terrain of
    VA/MD/PA/NY. As this activity strengthens and spreads eastward, it
    should be capable of producing scattered damaging wind gusts and
    perhaps isolated hail. Most guidance suggests that initial
    thunderstorm development will occur by 17-18Z (1-2 PM EDT). A Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued around that time frame to
    address the increasing threat through the rest of the afternoon.
    
    ..Gleason/Hart.. 05/22/2022
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...
    
    LAT...LON   40277492 38357711 37817851 38427934 39287915 40067874
                42267690 43087601 43847468 43807433 43607359 43287325
                42827302 41657371 40277492 
    
    
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  • SPC MD 868

    Sun, 22 May 2022 15:49:03 +0000 UTC

    MD 0868 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
    MD 0868 Image

    
    Mesoscale Discussion 0868
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1048 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022
    
    Areas affected...portions of southern Alabama into southwest Georgia
    
    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 
    
    Valid 221548Z - 221745Z
    
    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
    
    SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts may accompany the leading line of
    storms into the early afternoon hours. A WW issuance is not expected
    given the isolated and marginal nature of the severe threat.
    
    DISCUSSION...A tropical MCS, characterized by a -7 to -10 F
    temperature deficit/cold pool, is progressing northward within a
    modest deep-layer wind profile. While deep-layer ambient shear is
    weak, the leading-line of the MCS is progressing towards warmer
    temperatures across southern Alabama/southwest Georgia, which are
    approaching the lowers 80s F and may warm further before the MCS
    arrives. As such, further boundary-layer mixing may support a couple
    of damaging gusts associated with this MCS as it progresses
    northward (as suggested by the 12Z HREF). 15Z mesoanalysis shows
    increasing DCAPE in advance of the leading line, indicative of a
    thermodynamic profile supportive of damaging gust potential with
    continued evaporative cooling/northward cold pool progression.
    Nonetheless, the severe threat is expected to remain relatively
    isolated and brief given the lack of stronger upper support and
    vertical shear, and a WW issuance is not expected.
    
    ..Squitieri.. 05/22/2022
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
    
    LAT...LON   30908425 30578492 30718543 30928608 30968672 30908713
                30768749 31458752 32448679 32848559 32648446 32068412
                31458414 30908425 
    
    
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