Current Mesoscale Discussions
Updated:  Sun May 22 16:41:02 UTC 2022

Valid MD Image
MD Legend Image Mesoscale Discussion # 871 Mesoscale Discussion # 870 Mesoscale Discussion # 869 Mesoscale Discussion # 868
MD0871 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #0871
Issued: 22/1639 UTC
Until: 22/1845 UTC
Concerning: SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
MD0870 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #0870
Issued: 22/1630 UTC
Until: 22/1900 UTC
Concerning: SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
MD0869 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #0869
Issued: 22/1620 UTC
Until: 22/1845 UTC
Concerning: SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
MD0868 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #0868
Issued: 22/1548 UTC
Until: 22/1745 UTC
Concerning: SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

  All times are UTC

Notice:  The responsibility for Heavy Rain Mesoscale Discussions has been transferred to the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) on April 9, 2013. Click here for the Service Change Notice. Archived Mesoscale Discussions
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 Storm Prediction Center
  • SPC MD 870

    Sun, 22 May 2022 16:31:04 +0000 UTC

    MD 0870 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND
    MD 0870 Image

    
Mesoscale Discussion 0870
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

Areas affected...Portions of northern NY into New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 221630Z - 221900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms that develop this afternoon should be
capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a
tornado. Watch issuance will likely be needed to address this
threat.

DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have already developed over the
past couple of hours across parts of ME. This activity is likely
elevated above the stable marine layer, but it may pose an isolated
threat for marginal hail in the short term. Otherwise, additional
robust convection is forecast to develop in the next couple of hours
across northern NY and into parts of New England. Large-scale ascent
preceding an upper trough will aid this convective development, and
enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow should support 35-45+ kt of
deep-layer shear. Given the magnitude of this shear, a few
supercells appear possible along with some multicell clusters.
Low-level moisture across this area should remain slightly less
compared to locations farther south, but MLCAPE generally ranging
from 500-1500 J/kg should be sufficient for surface-based
thunderstorms. Both large hail and damaging winds will be possible
with any supercell that can develop, while the wind threat should be
greater with multicell clusters. In addition, the low-level flow may
be sufficient for around 100 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, mainly across
parts of ME. Any semi-discrete thunderstorm could produce a brief
tornado, but limited low-level hodograph curvature in various RAP
forecast soundings suggest this threat should remain quite isolated.
Regardless, the threat for scattered damaging winds and large hail
will increase early this afternoon, and watch issuance will likely
be needed in the next couple of hours.

..Gleason/Hart.. 05/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON   44427435 45077352 45057158 45307141 45397091 46117038
            46737004 47516919 47526902 47336893 47436818 47086774
            45636753 44187021 43257242 43357316 43837332 43827403
            44427435
    Read more

  • SPC MD 869

    Sun, 22 May 2022 16:21:03 +0000 UTC

    MD 0869 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL VA INTO THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE...MD...PA...NY...NJ...DC...AND A SMALL PART OF NEW ENGLAND
    MD 0869 Image

    
Mesoscale Discussion 0869
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

Areas affected...Portions of northern/central VA into the eastern WV
Panhandle...MD...PA...NY...NJ...DC...and a small part of New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 221620Z - 221845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and hail should increase as
thunderstorms develop by early this afternoon. Severe Thunderstorm
Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...Partly to mostly clear skies ahead of a front will
allow the airmass to quickly destabilize into early this afternoon
across parts of VA/MD/PA/NY and vicinity. A rather moist low-level
airmass is in place across this region, with generally 60s to low
70s surface dewpoints. Fairly cool mid-level temperatures are also
present, which coupled with continued diurnal heating will likely
support MLCAPE reaching 1000-2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Locally
greater instability is possible across PA, MD, and VA where better
low-level moisture is present. The stronger mid-level flow
associated with an upper trough over the Great Lakes and eastern
Canada should remain displaced mostly to the west of the surface
warm sector. Still, around 25-35 kt of southwesterly winds at 500 mb
(weaker with southward extent into the Mid-Atlantic) should foster
similar values of effective bulk shear and some updraft
organization. Mainly multicell clusters are expected to develop
early this afternoon, initially over the higher terrain of
VA/MD/PA/NY. As this activity strengthens and spreads eastward, it
should be capable of producing scattered damaging wind gusts and
perhaps isolated hail. Most guidance suggests that initial
thunderstorm development will occur by 17-18Z (1-2 PM EDT). A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued around that time frame to
address the increasing threat through the rest of the afternoon.

..Gleason/Hart.. 05/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40277492 38357711 37817851 38427934 39287915 40067874
            42267690 43087601 43847468 43807433 43607359 43287325
            42827302 41657371 40277492
    Read more

  • SPC MD 868

    Sun, 22 May 2022 15:49:03 +0000 UTC

    MD 0868 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
    MD 0868 Image

    
Mesoscale Discussion 0868
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

Areas affected...portions of southern Alabama into southwest Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 221548Z - 221745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts may accompany the leading line of
storms into the early afternoon hours. A WW issuance is not expected
given the isolated and marginal nature of the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...A tropical MCS, characterized by a -7 to -10 F
temperature deficit/cold pool, is progressing northward within a
modest deep-layer wind profile. While deep-layer ambient shear is
weak, the leading-line of the MCS is progressing towards warmer
temperatures across southern Alabama/southwest Georgia, which are
approaching the lowers 80s F and may warm further before the MCS
arrives. As such, further boundary-layer mixing may support a couple
of damaging gusts associated with this MCS as it progresses
northward (as suggested by the 12Z HREF). 15Z mesoanalysis shows
increasing DCAPE in advance of the leading line, indicative of a
thermodynamic profile supportive of damaging gust potential with
continued evaporative cooling/northward cold pool progression.
Nonetheless, the severe threat is expected to remain relatively
isolated and brief given the lack of stronger upper support and
vertical shear, and a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri.. 05/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   30908425 30578492 30718543 30928608 30968672 30908713
            30768749 31458752 32448679 32848559 32648446 32068412
            31458414 30908425
    Read more
   NWS Current Mesoscale Discussions
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