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Severe Wx Summary! | ||||||||||||
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Thu, Aug. 18, 2022-12:38:08pm
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Thu, Aug 18, 2022 - 12:39pm |
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2022 |
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 17/1345Z from Region 3078 (S20W34). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. |
IB. Solar Activity Forecast Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug). |
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 17/1841Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 17/0343Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 17/1850Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6038 pfu. |
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (18 Aug), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (19 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on day three (20 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug). |

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2022 Aug 18 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale G2). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 18-Aug 20 2022 is 7 (NOAA Scale G3).
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Rationale: Combined CME and negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected to keep the geomagnetic field at G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storm levels through 20 Aug.
Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
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Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms through 20 Aug as Region 3078 rotates into an increasingly geoeffective position on the solar disk.
Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 17 2022 1345 UTC.
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Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackout given the flare potential of Region 3078. There is a slight chance this region could also produce X-class flares and R3 or greater radio blackouts.
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Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2022 Aug 15 0229 UTC
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Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). | Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. |

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Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10. |

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The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere. |

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The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere. The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause. |

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This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression | This plot shows six Previous Cycles to date |
The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun.
Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.


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Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach. |
Source: Space Weather.com |

Full Moon Perseids | |||
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2022 August 18 |
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Explanation: The annual Perseid meteor shower was near its peak on August 13. As planet Earth crossed through streams of debris left by periodic Comet Swift-Tuttle meteors rained in northern summer night skies. But even that night's nearly Full Moon shining near the top of this composited view couldn't hide all of the popular shower's meteor streaks. The image captures some of the brightest perseid meteors in many short exposures recorded over more than two hours before the dawn. It places the shower's radiant in the heroic constellation of Perseus just behind a well-lit medieval tower in the village of Sant Llorenc de la Muga, Girona, Spain. Observed in medieval times, the Perseid meteor shower is also known in Catholic tradition as the Tears of St. Lawrence, and festivities are celebrated close to the annual peak of the meteor shower. Joining the Full Moon opposite the Sun, bright planet Saturn also shines in the frame at the upper right. |
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High Resolution Image | |||
Tomorrow’s Image: one Saturn year | |||
Credit & Copyright: Juan Carlos Casado (Starry Earth, TWAN) | |||
Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day |
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of: NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).
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