Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2024 Feb 22 2341 UTC - Read More
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp= 2.00 - Quiet
Kp= 0.33 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 6-hr max
X6.37 - R3 Class Flare
C8.7 - Active
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
C8.7-Active 2024-02-23
C5.29 - Active
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
2.70 protons/cm3
319 km/sec - Calm
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
5.41 (Bt) - Normal
0.44 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2024
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 21/2307Z from Region 3590 (N17E38). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 377 km/s at 21/2339Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 21/2209Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/0438Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 Feb, 24 Feb) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (25 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2024 Feb 23 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 23-Feb 25 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 23 to Feb 25 2024
Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb 25
Forecast High  
1.67
1.67
4.67 G1
00-03UT 1.67 1.67 3.00
03-06UT 1.33 1.33 2.00
06-09UT 1.33 1.33 2.00
09-12UT 1.33 1.33 3.33
12-15UT 1.33 1.33 4.00
15-18UT 1.33 1.33 4.67 G1
18-21UT 1.67 1.67 4.00
21-00UT 1.67 1.67 3.33
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
2.00
2.00
1.33
0.67
1.67
1.33
0.33
0.33
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Feb 23 to Feb 25
Middle Latitudes Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb 25
Active 10% 10% 25%
Minor Storm 1% 1% 10%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb 25
Active 15% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 20% 20% 25%
Major-severe storm 20% 20% 35%

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 25 Feb with the arrival of a CME that left the sun on 21 Feb.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 23 to Feb 25 2024
Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb 25
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: A slight chance for an S1-2 (Minor-Moderate) solar radiation storm will persist through 25 Feb primarily due to the potential of a significant event posed by AR 3590.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Feb 22 2024 2234 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 23 to Feb 25 2024
Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb 25
Class: C-flare 99% 99% 99%
R1-R2 60% 60% 60%
R3 or greater 30% 30% 30%
PCAF Updated: Thursday, 22 Feb 2024 UTC
Polar Cap Absorption FCST green

Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a chance for R3 (Strong) events, through 25 Feb due to the recent flare history of AR 3590 coupled with the anticipated return of old AR 3575.

Region Flare Probabilities for Feb 23, 2024
Region Class C M X P
3586 5% 1% 1% 1%
3590 90% 45% 15% 5%


27-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2024 Feb 19 0216 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2024 Feb 19 160 8 3
2024 Feb 20 160 10 3
2024 Feb 21 165 5 2
2024 Feb 22 170 5 2
2024 Feb 23 170 5 2
2024 Feb 24 172 5 2
2024 Feb 25 172 5 2
2024 Feb 26 165 8 3
2024 Feb 27 165 7 3
2024 Feb 28 165 5 2
2024 Feb 29 155 5 2
2024 Mar 01 160 5 2
2024 Mar 02 165 5 2
2024 Mar 03 170 5 2
2024 Mar 04 170 5 2
2024 Mar 05 170 5 2
2024 Mar 06 170 5 2
2024 Mar 07 170 5 2
2024 Mar 08 170 5 2
2024 Mar 09 170 5 2
2024 Mar 10 165 5 2
2024 Mar 11 165 5 2
2024 Mar 12 165 5 2
2024 Mar 13 165 5 2
2024 Mar 14 165 5 2
2024 Mar 15 165 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current C5.29 173 6 0.33

Solar X-ray Flux 24-hrs
GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Planetary k index past 2 Days
1-minute Estimated Planetary k index
Graph showing Planetary k index Graph showing 1-minute Estimated Planetary k index

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 319 km/sec 2.70 p/cm3 Bt 5.41 nT Bz 2.93 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs



Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
Current Sun

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.


Solar Cycle


Graph showing Seven Previous Cycles to date
Daily and Monthly Sunspot
Daily Sunspots Last 30 Days
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Daily Sunspots Last 20 Days
Sunspot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression

The Solar Cycle forecast comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and the International Space Environmental Services (ISES). This amounts to the ‘official’ forecast for the solar cycle. The Prediction Panel forecasts the sunspot number expected for solar maximum and has predicted Cycle 25 to reach a maximum of 115 occurring in July, 2025. The error bars on this prediction mean the panel expects the cycle maximum could be between 105-125 with the peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026.


Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Radio Communications Impact (D-Region Absorption)
Radio Communications Impact

  The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.

  The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause.




 Astronomy Picture of the Day


The Pencil Nebula Supernova Shock Wave
The Pencil Nebula Supernova Shock Wave
2024 February 23

Explanation: This supernova shock wave plows through interstellar space at over 500,000 kilometers per hour. Centered and moving upward in the sharply detailed color composite its thin, bright, braided filaments are actually long ripples in a cosmic sheet of glowing gas seen almost edge-on. Discovered in the 1840s by Sir John Herschel, the narrow-looking nebula is sometimes known as Herschel's Ray. Cataloged as NGC 2736, its pointed appearance suggests its modern popular name, the Pencil Nebula. The Pencil Nebula is about 800 light-years away. Nearly 5 light-years long it represents only a small part of the Vela supernova remnant though. The enormous Vela remnant itself is around 100 light-years in diameter, the expanding debris cloud of a star that was seen to explode about 11,000 years ago. Initially, the section of the shock wave seen as the Pencil nebula was moving at millions of kilometers per hour but has slowed considerably, sweeping up surrounding interstellar material.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: light-weekend
Credit & Copyright: Helge Buesing
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day


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