Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2022 Aug 18 1510 UTC - Read More
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=6 Storm!
Kp=5 Storm!
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 6-hr max
M1.59 - Class Flare
M1.31 - Class Flare
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
C3.0 - Active 2022-08-18
B7.59 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
9.39 protons/cm3
568km/sec Mod. Elevated
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
7.44 (Bt) - Normal
0.458 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 17/1345Z from Region 3078 (S20W34). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 17/1841Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 17/0343Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 17/1850Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6038 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (18 Aug), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (19 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on day three (20 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2022 Aug 18 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale G2). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 18-Aug 20 2022 is 7 (NOAA Scale G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 18 to Aug 20 2022
Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20
Forecast High  
7 G3
6 G2
5 G1
00-03UT 3 6 G2 5 G1
03-06UT 2 5 G1 5 G1
06-09UT 3 4 4
09-12UT 3 4 3
12-15UT 5 G1 4 3
15-18UT 4 4 3
18-21UT 6 G2 4 3
21-00UT 7 G3 5 G1 3
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
6 G2
6 G2
3
2
3
3
5 G1
5 G1
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Aug 18 to Aug 20
Middle Latitudes Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20
Active 15% 25% 40%
Minor Storm 35% 35% 15%
Major-severe storm 50% 25% 1%
High Latitudes Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20
Active 1% 5% 10%
Minor Storm 5% 15% 30%
Major-severe storm 90% 75% 55%

Rationale: Combined CME and negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected to keep the geomagnetic field at G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storm levels through 20 Aug.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 18 to Aug 20 2022
Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms through 20 Aug as Region 3078 rotates into an increasingly geoeffective position on the solar disk.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 17 2022 1345 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 18 to Aug 20 2022
Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
PCAF green

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackout given the flare potential of Region 3078. There is a slight chance this region could also produce X-class flares and R3 or greater radio blackouts.

Region Flare Probabilities for Aug 18, 2022
Region Class C M X P
3074 5% 0% 0% 0%
3078 80% 30% 5% 5%
3079 20% 5% 1% 1%
3081 20% 5% 1% 1%
3082 25% 5% 1% 1%
3083 25% 5% 1% 1%


3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2022 Aug 15 0229 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2022 Aug 15 124 5 2
2022 Aug 16 124 5 2
2022 Aug 17 122 20 5 G1
2022 Aug 18 118 25 5 G1
2022 Aug 19 112 18 4
2022 Aug 20 108 12 4
2022 Aug 21 102 8 3
2022 Aug 22 100 5 2
2022 Aug 23 100 5 2
2022 Aug 24 94 5 2
2022 Aug 25 94 5 2
2022 Aug 26 94 5 2
2022 Aug 27 94 12 4
2022 Aug 28 96 8 3
2022 Aug 29 98 8 3
2022 Aug 30 100 8 3
2022 Aug 31 108 5 2
2022 Sep 01 114 5 2
2022 Sep 02 116 5 2
2022 Sep 03 116 24 6 G2
2022 Sep 04 112 28 6 G2
2022 Sep 05 108 18 5 G1
2022 Sep 06 108 10 3
2022 Sep 07 115 14 4
2022 Sep 08 120 8 3
2022 Sep 09 124 10 3



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current B7.59 123 31 5 G1

Solar X-ray Flux 24-hrs
GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Planetary k index past 2 Days
1-minute Estimated Planetary k index
Graph showing Planetary k index Graph showing 1-minute Estimated Planetary k index

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 568 km/sec 9.39 p/cm3 Bt 7.44 nT Bz -3.75 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
Current Sun
Sunspots last 30 days
Solar Data - Issued: 1425 UTC - 18 Aug 2022 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (83)

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.


Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Radio Communications Impact (D-Region Absorption)
Radio Communications Impact

  The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.

  The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause.



Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
Six Previous Cycles to date
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing 6 Previous Cycles to date
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression This plot shows six Previous Cycles to date

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Full Moon Perseids
Full Moon Perseids
2022 August 18

Explanation: The annual Perseid meteor shower was near its peak on August 13. As planet Earth crossed through streams of debris left by periodic Comet Swift-Tuttle meteors rained in northern summer night skies. But even that night's nearly Full Moon shining near the top of this composited view couldn't hide all of the popular shower's meteor streaks. The image captures some of the brightest perseid meteors in many short exposures recorded over more than two hours before the dawn. It places the shower's radiant in the heroic constellation of Perseus just behind a well-lit medieval tower in the village of Sant Llorenc de la Muga, Girona, Spain. Observed in medieval times, the Perseid meteor shower is also known in Catholic tradition as the Tears of St. Lawrence, and festivities are celebrated close to the annual peak of the meteor shower. Joining the Full Moon opposite the Sun, bright planet Saturn also shines in the frame at the upper right.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: one Saturn year
Credit & Copyright: Juan Carlos Casado (Starry Earth, TWAN)
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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