Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Issued: 2024 May 27 0030 UTC

Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3691 (N29E48, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the strongest event of the period, a C7.4/Sf flare at 26/1706 UTC. The region continued to grow in number of spots and penumbral area. Newly numbered region 3693 (N06E35, Cro/beta) was quiet. The remaining numbered active regions on the visible disk were either stable or in gradual decay. New Regions 3694 (S12E45, Axx/alpha), 3695 (N27E60, Bxo/beta) and 3696 (N09E66, Hrx/alpha) were numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Solar activity is likely to be low, with a chance of M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), over 27-29 May.

Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at normal to moderate levels over 27-29 May, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels. Total magnetic field strength was mostly between 4-6 nT. The Bz component reached as far south as -6 nT. A gradual increase was observed to near 9 nT near the end of the UT day. Solar wind speeds briefly reached as high as 450 km/s but declined to ~350 km/s by the end of the reporting period. Outside of 26/1200-1500 UTC, phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.
Enhancements in solar wind parameters are possible over 27-28 May due to coronal hole influence. Additional enhancements may occur early on 27 May due to periphery of a passing CME that left the Sun on 23 May. Mostly nominal conditions are likely on 29 May.

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled levels on 27-28 May due to potential combined effects from a coronal hole and a the periphery of a passing CME. Mostly quiet levels are likely on 29 May.
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