Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Issued: 2021 May 11 0030 UTC

Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2822 (N18E33, Dao/beta-gamma) was much less active today and did not produce significant flares. Region 2823 (N21E39, Cao/beta) was also quiet. The CME associated with the filament eruption that occurred at approximately 09/1000 UTC likely has some Earth-directed component, based on its source region and presentation in STEREO-A coronagraph imagery. Model analysis, while somewhat uncertain based on the lack of a clear signature in LASCO C2/C3, suggests arrival on 13 May. An earlier arrival on 12 May cannot be ruled out either, given the low confidence in the model output.
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2 radio blackouts) flares through 13 May, given the history and magnetic complexity of Region 2822.

Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate through 13 May and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background.

Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
The IMF was slightly disturbed, likely due to current sheet interaction. Total magnetic field strength peaked near 12 nT and the Bz component briefly exceeded -5 nT a few times. Wind speed averaged about 350 km/s. Phi was often variable between positive and negative orientations.
Minor interactions are anticipated on 11 May with continued current sheet effects, and eventually, possible interaction with a weak and narrow, negative polarity CH HSS. The CME mentioned earlier in this discussion is likely to arrive on 13 May but could arrive as early as late on 12 May, given the low confidence in the model initialization process.

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for much of the next two days (11-12 May) until the 09 May CME arrives. There is a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms on 13 May and possibly on 12 May if the CME is moving faster than anticipated.
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