Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Issued: 2021 Oct 17 0030 UTC

Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2882 (N15W91, Hsx/alpha) was quiet and stable as it rotated beyond the limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Very low solar activity is expected 17-19 Oct.

Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux retained background values.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background 17-19 Oct.

Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected a weak enhancement in the IMF. Total magnetic field strength increased to 8-9 nT. Bz was primarily northward. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector in the latter half of the period.
Weak enhancements in the IMF are possible on 17 Oct. A CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS is expected cause enhanced solar wind parameters on 18-19 Oct.

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 17 Oct. Unsettled to active levels are likely on 18-19 Oct due to CH HSS influence.
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