Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Issued: 2022 Jul 06 0030 UTC

Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3047 (S20W29, Bxo/beta) underwent decay. It produced the largest flare of the period, a C9.8 at 05/0407 UTC. The flare was associated with a Type II radio sweep. A CME associated shock was observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery. The primary ejecta appeared directed in a more narrow trajectory. CME analysis of this event determined low possibility of any significant any geoeffective component. Region 3050 (N18E16) decayed to plage, however, the area was unstable and produced some C-class flares, to include a C5.1 flare at 04/1333 UTC. This flare was associated with Type II and IV sweeps, however, no visible CME was detected in available coronagraph imagery. Remaining regions were inactive or in decay. No new CMEs were observed on the Sun-Earth line in available imagery.
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) 06-08 Jul.

Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 08 July.

Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were ambient. Solar wind speed decreased from ~450 km/s to below 350 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative, with brief shifts into a positive sector.
Enhancements to the solar wind environment are anticipated 06 Jul due to a SSBC ahead of a CIR associated with a positive polarity CH HSS. Enhancements in the solar wind from the HSS are expected to continue 07-08 July.

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 06 Jul as CH HSS effects increase. Unsettled to active levels, with a chance for isolated G1 (Minor) storming periods, are expected 07-08 Jul as effects wane.
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