NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Dec 7, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Dec 7 12:40:36 UTC 2022
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Overview Overview

 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 071240

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0640 AM CST Wed Dec 07 2022

   Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

   ...Synopsis...
   Around the northwest periphery of the persistent mid-upper ridge
   over the Gulf of Mexico, and in advance of a shortwave trough
   approaching the Pacific Northwest coast late, a midlevel trough will
   eject east-northeastward from the lower CO River Valley to the
   southern/central High Plains.  A cold near-surface air mass will
   tend to mute lee cyclogenesis potential downstream from the ejecting
   trough, such that a surface baroclinic zone will move little from
   north TX to the TN Valley through tonight.  Isolated thunderstorms
   will be possible today along the front from the Mid-South into the
   TN Valley, and the potential for thunderstorms (mainly elevated)
   will increase some this evening into tonight from west TX into OK in
   a strengthening warm advection regime associated with a lead
   shortwave trough.  Severe storms are not expected as a result of
   poor midlevel lapse rates and weak buoyancy.

   ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/07/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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