NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Sep 29, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Sep 29 12:15:41 UTC 2023
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Overview Overview

 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 291215

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0715 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023

   Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THOUGHT TONIGHT
   FROM EASTERN SD INTO MN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated large hail and strong-severe gusts will be possible from
   eastern South Dakota into Minnesota this morning through tonight.

   ...Eastern SD into MN through tonight...
   No substantial changes to the prior outlook.  In association with an
   ejecting midlevel shortwave trough, elevated convection will
   continue to spread northeastward this morning from northeast SD
   toward northern MN.  The convection appears to be rooted close to
   700 mb, along the northwest edge of the steeper midlevel lapse
   rates, where MUCAPE is near 1000 J/kg.  There is sufficient
   cloud-layer shear/hodograph length for a small cluster capable of
   producing large hail near 1 inch diameter this morning.  Strong
   outflow winds will also be possible, though the potential for
   damaging/severe winds at the surface will be limited by a relatively
   deep stable layer below the 700 mb level.

   In the wake of the morning convection with the midlevel trough,
   gradual midlevel height rises are expected atop a slow-moving
   baroclinic zone from southwest into east central MN. 
   Afternoon/evening convection will rely on shallow ascent along the
   front in conjunction with surface heating/deep mixing to remove
   convective inhibition.  If storms form later this afternoon along
   the front, the environment will conditionally favor a supercell or
   two capable of producing large hail and strong outflow gusts. 
   Otherwise, low-level warm advection will increase this evening into
   early tonight on the nose of a strengthening low-level jet, which
   will support additional elevated storm development with the
   potential for isolated large hail.

   ..Thompson/Leitman.. 09/29/2023

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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