NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Jul 31, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jul 31 05:27:43 UTC 2021
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Overview Overview

 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 310527

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1227 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

   Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   TENNESSEE AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AS WELL
   AS WISCONSIN AND THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms with damaging gusts will be possible today, mainly
   across a portion of central and southern Missouri into the western
   portion of the Tennessee Valley. Other strong storms will be
   possible over Wisconsin and the coastal Carolinas.

   ...Central and southern Missouri into western Tennessee and
   Kentucky...

   The eastern U.S. synoptic upper trough will amplify today
   contributing to a belt of slightly stronger winds aloft over the
   middle MS and TN Valley areas. Meanwhile a cold front will move
   southward through central into southern KS, while a stationary front
   persists from northeast KS to southern MO and western TN. With rich
   low-level moisture in place, the atmosphere south of the boundaries
   will become moderately unstable with 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE likely.
   It is probable that an MCS will be in progress across
   central/northern MO by 12Z today. Some threat for strong to damaging
   wind gusts might still exist, but this activity may weaken as it
   continues southeast during the morning. Additional storms are
   expected to develop along the trailing outflow boundary/front merger
   across central MO and spread southeast into the moderately unstable
   warm sector during the afternoon. A belt of up to 35 kt
   northwesterly mid-level winds will reside across this region with
   modest effective bulk shear supporting mostly multicells. Storms may
   evolve into line segments with potential for a few damaging wind
   gusts across a portion of southern MO and possibly into western
   TN/KY during the afternoon and evening. Considerable uncertainty
   remains regarding evolution of morning storms which precludes a
   categorical upgrade to SLGT at this time.

   ...Wisconsin...

   A shortwave trough embedded within the broader, amplifying upper
   trough will move southeast into the upper Great Lakes during the
   afternoon accompanied by a cold front. Up to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
   is expected in the pre-frontal warm sector, but mid-level lapse
   rates will remain marginal. Thunderstorms will likely develop along
   the cold front and spread southeast through central WI. Northwest
   flow aloft with modest vertical shear will support multicells, but
   some storms might produce locally strong wind gusts and small hail
   before weakening during the evening.

   ...Coastal Carolinas...

   Multicell storms are expected to develop along a stalled front near
   the coastal Carolinas within a weakly sheared and moderately
   unstable environment during the afternoon. A few of the storms might
   produce strong to severe downburst winds before weakening during the
   early evening.

   ..Dial/Moore.. 07/31/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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