NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 11, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 11 01:00:43 UTC 2021
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Overview Overview

 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 110100

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0800 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

   Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms with very large hail and severe gusts are
   possible across portions of southern Texas this evening and tonight.

   ...TX into LA...
   An active corridor for showers and thunderstorms north of a
   stationary front near the TX Hill Country into southeast
   TX/southwest LA, will likely persist through the evening hours.  The
   storm activity is being forced in part by low-level warm air
   advection and has led to the elevated thunderstorms, some of which
   are locally severe from the Concho Valley northeastward into
   northeast TX.  A gradual diminishing of updraft strength is
   anticipated this evening with the remaining severe threat
   concentrated near the Rio Grande by mid-late evening.  A renewed
   risk for severe may occur late tonight as low-level warm air
   advection strengthens over the Big Country into southern OK. 
   Isolated large hail will be the primary risk with this overnight
   activity.  For short-term details, please refer to MCD #586
   regarding the severe risk near and southeast of Del Rio.

   ...Central NC this evening...
   Thunderstorms are expected to continue to weaken early this evening
   near a stationary front draped across NC.  Gradually cooling surface
   temperatures and stabilization of the boundary layer will favor
   lessening storm coverage.  Despite adequate shear profiles for storm
   organization, the risk isolated damaging gust will likely diminish
   by late evening.  Please refer to MCD #587 regarding the severe risk
   in the short term.

   ..Smith.. 05/11/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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