SPC AC 070704

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0104 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2023

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/ARKLAMISS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night
   across the Lower Mississippi Valley. This includes the potential for
   damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and possibly some hail.

   ...Lower Mississippi Valley/ArkLaMiss and Tennessee Valley...
   A shortwave trough and an increasingly strong polar jet will spread
   northeastward on Wednesday from the south-central Plains/Ozarks
   toward the Midwest and interface with an increasingly moist air mass
   across the Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley.

   Early day cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms will potentially
   be semi-persistent factors near/ahead of the cold front on
   Wednesday. However, the pre-convective warm sector will
   progressively moisten and cloud breaks should allow for modest
   diurnal destabilization across Louisiana into Mississippi and
   southern/eastern Arkansas. Some semi-discrete storms/supercells will
   be possible, but the modest prevalent scenario of convection may be
   quasi-linear bands with some embedded bows near the effective front.
   Damaging winds should be the most likely hazard along with the
   potential for a few tornadoes. The severe risk should develop toward
   eastern portions of Mississippi/Louisiana by Wednesday evening, and
   possibly reach western Alabama and/or western Tennessee later
   Wednesday night.

   ...Lower Ohio Valley/Midwest...
   The steady northeastward ejection of the shortwave trough and
   related deepening phase (potentially reaching -1 mb/hr) of the
   northeastward-advancing surface cyclone from the Ozarks to the
   Midwest could influence a strongly forced low-topped convective line
   across the region Wednesday night. Concern exists for the potential
   of convectively enhanced wind gusts, possibly with little or no
   lightning flashes, even in the presence of minimal instability with
   northward extent. Given a pronounced nocturnal strengthening of
   deep-layer winds (highlighted by 100+ kt mid-level jet), along with
   steepening lapse rates atop residual but eroding boundary layer
   stability, at least low wind-related severe probabilities appear
   warranted even with thermodynamic uncertainties/limitations.

   ..Guyer.. 02/07/2023

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z