SPC AC 070704
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2023
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/ARKLAMISS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night
across the Lower Mississippi Valley. This includes the potential for
damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and possibly some hail.
...Lower Mississippi Valley/ArkLaMiss and Tennessee Valley...
A shortwave trough and an increasingly strong polar jet will spread
northeastward on Wednesday from the south-central Plains/Ozarks
toward the Midwest and interface with an increasingly moist air mass
across the Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley.
Early day cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms will potentially
be semi-persistent factors near/ahead of the cold front on
Wednesday. However, the pre-convective warm sector will
progressively moisten and cloud breaks should allow for modest
diurnal destabilization across Louisiana into Mississippi and
southern/eastern Arkansas. Some semi-discrete storms/supercells will
be possible, but the modest prevalent scenario of convection may be
quasi-linear bands with some embedded bows near the effective front.
Damaging winds should be the most likely hazard along with the
potential for a few tornadoes. The severe risk should develop toward
eastern portions of Mississippi/Louisiana by Wednesday evening, and
possibly reach western Alabama and/or western Tennessee later
Wednesday night.
...Lower Ohio Valley/Midwest...
The steady northeastward ejection of the shortwave trough and
related deepening phase (potentially reaching -1 mb/hr) of the
northeastward-advancing surface cyclone from the Ozarks to the
Midwest could influence a strongly forced low-topped convective line
across the region Wednesday night. Concern exists for the potential
of convectively enhanced wind gusts, possibly with little or no
lightning flashes, even in the presence of minimal instability with
northward extent. Given a pronounced nocturnal strengthening of
deep-layer winds (highlighted by 100+ kt mid-level jet), along with
steepening lapse rates atop residual but eroding boundary layer
stability, at least low wind-related severe probabilities appear
warranted even with thermodynamic uncertainties/limitations.
..Guyer.. 02/07/2023
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