NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3 Convective Outlook

Feb 6, 2023 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Feb 6 08:40:55 UTC 2023
  |  
SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 3 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 060840

   Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0240 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2023

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...

   CORRECTED FOR TYPO

   ...SUMMARY...
   At least isolated severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday and
   Wednesday night across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee
   Valley.

   ...ArkLaTex to Tennessee Valley including LA/AR/MS/AL/TN...
   Severe-weather potential is expected to increase into Wednesday
   across the region. This will be as a shortwave trough/polar jet
   spread northeastward from the south-central Plains/Ozarks toward the
   Midwest and interface with an increasingly moist air mass across the
   Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley.

   However, numerical guidance timing/spatial variability and the
   likelihood of early day convection, as well as modest overall
   destabilization, cast uncertainty regarding the potential and
   placement of somewhat higher severe probabilities (such as a Slight
   Risk) at this time. Recent NAM runs continue to be much more
   east-northeastward progressive as compared to recent ECMWF/GFS
   guidance.

   Early day cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms will likely be
   semi-persistent factors ahead of the cold front on Wednesday,
   although most global guidance has trended slightly more unstable
   with respect to the warm/moist sector over the prior 24-36 hr of
   guidance runs. Regardless, currently thinking is the warm sector
   will at least modestly destabilize Wednesday across portions of
   Louisiana into Arkansas/Mississippi. At least an isolated
   severe-weather potential should increase accordingly, including
   damaging wind/tornado risks. This severe potential should reach
   portions of Alabama/Tennessee Wednesday night. 

   An upgrade to a categorical Slight Risk could be warranted for
   portions of the region into the Day 2 time frame as forecast details
   become clearer.

   ...Lower Ohio Valley/Midwest...
   Steady northeastward ejection of the shortwave trough and related
   deepening phase of the northeastward-advancing surface cyclone from
   the Ozarks to the Midwest could influence a strongly forced
   low-topped convective line across the region Wednesday night, even
   in the presence of minimal instability with northward extent. Given
   a pronounced strengthening of deep-layer winds, along with
   steepening lapse rates atop residual but eroding boundary layer
   stability, at least low wind-related severe probabilities may be
   warranted in future outlooks, even with thermodynamic
   uncertainties/potential limitations.

   ..Guyer.. 02/06/2023

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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