NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3 Convective Outlook

May 10, 2021 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon May 10 07:18:29 UTC 2021
  |  
SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 3 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 100718

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0218 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
   United States on Wednesday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A weak, positively tilted upper trough should progress across the
   northern/central Plains towards the mid MS Valley on Wednesday. At
   the surface, a front should be located from parts of coastal TX
   along the Gulf Coast, with little movement forecast through the day.
   Rich low-level moisture will likely remain confined along/south of
   this front. Convection should be ongoing at the start of the period
   along/near much of the Gulf Coast from TX to AL. Most guidance
   suggests that the better potential for surface-based instability
   should remain offshore, with perhaps a few exceptions. The front may
   not quite move off the coast of deep south TX, coastal LA/MS, and
   the FL Panhandle vicinity by Wednesday afternoon. Regardless, weak
   shear is forecast across deep south TX, with only marginally better
   mid-level flow expected along the central Gulf Coast through the
   day. While a strong storm or two might occur across these regions,
   nearly uniform westerly flow from just off the surface through mid
   levels along the central Gulf Coast will likely limit low-level
   convergence on the front. This weak convergence and a lack of
   focused large-scale ascent aloft render considerable uncertainty
   regarding how much surface-based convection will ultimately develop
   over land along/south of the front. At this point, the overall
   severe potential appears too limited to include any probabilities.

   ..Gleason.. 05/10/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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