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Summary for Tropical Depression Andres (EP1/EP012021)

...ANDRES EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY MORNING...
 As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon May 10
 the center of Andres was located near 15.9, -110.3
 with movement W at 6 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Andres Public Advisory Number 8

Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021  

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 110231
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Andres Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012021
900 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021
 
...ANDRES EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY MORNING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 110.3W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Andres
was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 110.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Andres is expected to become a remnant
low by Tuesday morning and dissipate by Wednesday night.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Tropical Depression Andres Forecast Advisory Number 8

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021  

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 110231
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012021
0300 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.3W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.3W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.0N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.1N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.1N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 110.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 

Tropical Depression Andres Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021  

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 110232
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression Andres Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012021
900 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021
 
Andres is not expected to be a tropical cyclone much longer. Earlier 
today, strong west-southwesterly shear caused the thunderstorm 
activity to be stripped away from the center, and now Andres is  
nearly devoid of deep convection.  The initial intensity is held at 
30 kt based on a combination of the latest Dvorak estimates. Andres 
is expected to become a remnant low by Tuesday morning due to a 
combination of the continued strong shear and cooler SSTs along the 
forecast track. These hostile conditions should cause the remnant 
low to dissipate in a couple of days, which is shown by the GFS, 
ECMWF, and UKMET global models.
 
After moving northwestward during the past day or two, Andres has
now turned sharply to the west due to the decoupling of the low-
and mid-level centers.  A continued westward motion at about 5 kt
is expected until the cyclone dissipates.  This forecast is located
to the south of the previous one due to the change in the initial
motion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 15.9N 110.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 16.0N 111.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  12/0000Z 16.1N 112.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/1200Z 16.1N 113.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Tropical Depression Andres Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021


000
FOPZ11 KNHC 110231
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012021               
0300 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Tropical Depression Andres Graphics


Tropical Depression Andres 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 May 2021 02:33:38 GMT

Tropical Depression Andres 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 May 2021 03:22:39 GMT
   
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