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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311124
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Hilda, located about 750 miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Depression
Nine-E, located about 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 400
miles south-southwest of the coast of southern Mexico. Continued
gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in a couple of days before
environmental conditions become less conducive for development.
This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph, away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Hilda are issued under WMO
header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Hilda are issued under WMO
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Summary for Tropical Storm Hilda (EP3/EP082021)

...HILDA STRENGTHENING... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...
 As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 31
 the center of Hilda was located near 13.3, -115.7
 with movement WNW at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 3

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 310835
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082021
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021
 
...HILDA STRENGTHENING...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 115.7W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 115.7 West.  Hilda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general heading with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected 
during the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast through 
Sunday, with Hilda expected to become a hurricane by tonight or 
early Sunday.  Some weakening is anticipated to begin on Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 310834
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082021
0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 115.7W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE   0SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 115.7W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 115.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.6N 117.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.1N 119.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.6N 120.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.1N 122.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.7N 123.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.3N 124.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 17.8N 127.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 18.9N 131.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 115.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 

Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 310836
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082021
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021
 
A prominent convective band now wraps about halfway around the 
southeast to west side of Hilda's center, and another band is 
taking shape to the north of the center.  With the improved 
organization, Dvorak estimates increased to a consensus T3.0/45 kt 
from TAFB and SAB, and a 0520 UTC ASCAT-B pass confirmed that indeed 
maximum winds are about 45 kt.  This is being set as Hilda's 
initial intensity, although it could be a little conservative since 
objective ADT estimates have trended higher than that since 0600 
UTC.

A mid-tropospheric ridge currently extends from northern Mexico 
westward across the Baja California peninsula to about 120W and is 
steering Hilda west-northwestward at 290/12 kt.  Although this 
ridge is expected to build westward and keep Hilda on a 
west-northwestward course, potential interactions with Tropical 
Depression Nine-E to the west and another low pressure area to the 
east could cause the storm to slow down over the next 3 days and 
oscillate a bit around that general heading.  There is slightly more 
spread among the track models than is typical, with the HWRF a 
notable southern outlier and the GFS and HMON models having some of 
the faster solutions due to greater interaction with T.D. Nine-E.  
That being said, the overall track guidance has trended a little 
slower and farther south on this cycle, and the updated NHC track 
forecast has therefore been adjusted in that direction from the 
previous forecast, lying close to the TVCE multi-model consensus but 
not nearly as far south as the HCCA consensus aid.

Hilda is currently in a light-shear regime and over sea surface 
temperatures of about 29 degrees Celsius, so continued 
strengthening is anticipated in the short term with Hilda likely 
to reach hurricane strength by tonight or early Sunday.  However, 
global models are suggesting that the shear may increase out of the 
east during the next 24 hours, and then Hilda will be near cooler 
waters in 2 to 3 days.  Therefore, Hilda is likely to reach its 
peak intensity in about 48 hours, and the NHC intensity forecast at 
that time is near the upper end of the guidance suite.  Hilda is 
expected to move over even cooler waters after 48 hours, which 
should cause a gradual weakening trend through the end of the 
forecast period.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0900Z 13.3N 115.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 13.6N 117.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 14.1N 119.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 14.6N 120.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 15.1N 122.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  02/1800Z 15.7N 123.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 16.3N 124.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 17.8N 127.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 18.9N 131.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021


000
FOPZ13 KNHC 310835
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082021               
0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 115W       34 17   3(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
10N 120W       34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
15N 120W       34  4  46(50)  35(85)   2(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)
15N 120W       50  X   6( 6)  38(44)   2(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
15N 120W       64  X   1( 1)  14(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)  37(52)   5(57)   X(57)
15N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   3(20)   X(20)
15N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)   1(15)
 
15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  15(22)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

Tropical Storm Hilda Graphics


Tropical Storm Hilda 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 31 Jul 2021 08:38:11 GMT

Tropical Storm Hilda 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 31 Jul 2021 09:23:51 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression Nine-E (EP4/EP092021)

...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...
 As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 31
 the center of Nine-E was located near 12.3, -127.0
 with movement W at 6 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 3

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 310835
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092021
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021
 
...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 127.0W
ABOUT 1340 MI...2155 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 127.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A general
westward motion with some increase in forward speed is forecast
during the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours, and 
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm in a couple 
of days.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 310835
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092021
0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 127.0W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 127.0W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 126.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 12.2N 127.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.1N 128.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.2N 129.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.5N 131.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.8N 132.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.1N 134.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 13.7N 136.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 14.5N 138.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 127.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 310836
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092021
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021
 
The depression remains poorly organized this morning. Deep
convection remains limited, and recent scatterometer data show that
the circulation is elongated from east to west. The initial
intensity is maintained at 25 kt, which could be generous based on
the latest ASCAT data.
 
As mentioned in the previous advisory, the confidence in the track
and intensity forecast for the depression is quite low due to the
current lack of organization of the system, and the potential for
some interaction with Tropical Storm Hilda located to its
northeast. The ASCAT data was helpful in pinpointing the center
location overnight, and the latest fixes indicate that the cyclone
is moving just south of due west or 265/5 kt. The track guidance
generally agrees on a slow west or west-southwest heading over the
next 12-24 hours followed by a west or west-northwest motion
through 48-60 hours.  After that time, the track guidance begins to
diverge with the GFS showing a binary interaction of the depression
and Hilda by days 4 and 5.  Most of the remainder of the guidance
keeps enough separation between the systems that the depression
continues generally moving westward or west-northwestward through
the end of the forecast period.  The NHC track forecast is once
again close to the various multi-model consensus aids, and is
slightly slower than the previous official forecast.
 
Although the depression is located over warm water, moderate
easterly shear and dry air entrainment have prevented strengthening
since genesis occurred.  Given the current poor organization of the
system and the marginal environment, only slow strengthening is
indicated over the next few days.  Another plausible scenario is
that the system fails to produce organization deep convection
within the next 12 to 24 hours, and it degenerates into a broad low
pressure area along the ITCZ. Given this uncertainty, the NHC
intensity forecast has been lowered slightly and is in best
agreement with the IVCN intensity aid.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0900Z 12.3N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 12.2N 127.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 12.1N 128.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 12.2N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 12.5N 131.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  02/1800Z 12.8N 132.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 13.1N 134.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 13.7N 136.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 14.5N 138.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Tropical Depression Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021


000
FOPZ14 KNHC 310835
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092021               
0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
10N 130W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
10N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
15N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)   2(16)
15N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
15N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics


Tropical Depression Nine-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 31 Jul 2021 08:37:20 GMT

Tropical Depression Nine-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 31 Jul 2021 09:30:32 GMT
   
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