NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST DISCUSSION
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by The National Weather Service
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 220905
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
205 AM PDT Sun May 22 2022


.Synopsis...
Dry weather and periods of breezy north winds and low humidity will
bring elevated fire weather conditions through mid-week, especially
Tuesday. Moderate heat risk through the middle of this week, with
temperatures peaking Wednesday. Cooler temperatures and onshore
winds expected late week as a system passes to the north.

&&

.Discussion...
Light winds, mostly clear skies, and near normal temperatures are
expected through the morning hours. Another day of northerly wind is
expected as a shortwave begins to move into the Great Basin region
today. Gusts up to 25 mph are expected, with the strongest winds
across the western portion of the Sacramento Valley and adjacent
foothills and over the mountains. With humidity values from the
single digits to the teens in much of the Valley today, elevated
fire weather conditions are expected.

Ensembles continue to highlight strengthening offshore winds Monday
into Tuesday as another system drops into the Great Basin. These
winds could be the strongest of the week leading to increased fire
weather conditions, especially on Tuesday as widespread humidity
values in the single digits are expected in the Valley. Peak
gradient values from SAC to MFR are around 10-13 mb, strongest from
Monday afternoon into Tuesday evening. This may lead to northerly
gusts up to 35 mph in portions of the Valley and western foothills,
locally up to 40 mph. Lighter winds are expected on Wednesday,
becoming onshore Wednesday evening.

Heat continues to be the other concern of the week with increasing
temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Valley temperatures may
reach into the triple digits both Tuesday and Wednesday, with the
hottest temperatures on Wednesday as ridging is overhead. Warm
overnight lows are also expected Tuesday into Wednesday with some
foothill and Valley locations only dropping into the upper 60s to
low 70s. Moderate to locally high heat risk are expected these days
and groups sensitive to heat should take precautions.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)...
Slightly better agreement in clusters for the timing of a trough
developing offshore on Thursday. This will bring cooler
temperatures, onshore flow, and higher humidity to the area on
Thursday continuing into late Friday. Thursday temperatures will
be roughly 8-12 degrees cooler than those hot temperatures
expected the day before, with a few more degrees of cooling
expected on Friday. A few showers are possible with this passing
system, mainly in far northern California. This system continues
east with EPac high pressure building just offshore through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions next 24 hours. Areas of northerly surface wind
gusts 15-25 kts 18Z-02Z Monday.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
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