NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1-2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Mon May 10 16:06:03 UTC 2021
May 10, 2021 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal  Day 1 Surface Analysis 

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 69,860 2,838,384 Albuquerque, NM...Sacramento, CA...Fairfield, CA...Vacaville, CA...Las Cruces, NM...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 101605

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1105 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

   Valid 101700Z - 111200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA INTO
   WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...

   Visible satellite depicts clear skies along the West Coast, with
   METAR observations showing 20+ mph sustained north-northwesterly
   winds present across the Sacramento Valley area. Though RH is
   currently within the 20-30% range, continued heating/boundary-layer
   mixing is expected to foster 15-20% RH during the afternoon (per
   latest guidance consensus). As such, Elevated and Critical
   highlights have been maintained across portions of northern
   California. 

   Little change has been made to the Elevated and Critical highlights
   across the Southwest. Clear skies are evident across the Lower
   Colorado River Basin, with METARs showing RH below 20% across
   several locales. As stronger flow aloft overspreads a deepening and
   mixing boundary layer, widespread 20+ mph sustained westerly surface
   winds will develop, with RH likely dropping into the 10-15% range.
   Fuels should remain dry enough to support considerable
   wildfire-spread potential.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/10/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021/

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough positioned over the Northern Rockies will remain
   quasi-stationary throughout the day, resulting in a mostly zonal
   flow pattern over much of the central and eastern CONUS. The
   exception will be along the West Coast, which will experience more
   northerly/northwesterly flow aloft. A mid-level jet streak embedded
   in the flow field, featuring 50+ kt winds, will move from parts of
   northern California into the Southwest throughout the day. At the
   surface, dry/breezy conditions are forecast to prevail over much of
   the West.

   ...Northern California...
   With the aforementioned enhanced northerly flow aloft, day time
   heating/mixing processes will allow winds aloft to mix toward the
   surface. Afternoon sustained northerly surface winds of 20+ mph
   (higher gusts in terrain-favored areas) should occur as RH values
   fall into the teens amid dry/receptive fuels. Consequently, critical
   fire-weather conditions can be expected, from late morning
   throughout the afternoon. In proximity to the critical area,
   elevated fire-weather conditions are expected where the wind/RH
   combo will be slightly weaker.

   ...Southwest...
   Enhanced westerly mid-level flow present over the region, combined
   with diurnal heating/mixing, should result in widespread sustained
   winds of 20-30 mph over the region. Meanwhile, RH values will fall
   into the teens and perhaps single digits (mainly across east-central
   Arizona into central New Mexico). Fuels across the region remain
   receptive to large-fire spread, and thus, critical fire-weather
   conditions can be expected for an expansive portion of the region.
   Elevated fire-weather conditions will occur in regions surrounding
   the critical delineation, where winds and RH values should generally
   not exceed critical thresholds, though localized critical conditions
   are certainly possible.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK TO GET DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)
      


   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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