NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1-2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sat Jul 31 05:44:03 UTC 2021
Jul 31, 2021 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire
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Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   FNUS21 KWNS 310543

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1243 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

   Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

   The weak upper-level impulse that has brought widespread showers and
   thunderstorms to the West over the past two days is noted over
   northeast Nevada in early-morning IR imagery and radar mosaics. This
   feature will continue to gradually shift to the north/northwest into
   southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho today. Deeper monsoonal
   moisture will accompany the impulse and support increasing
   thunderstorm and wetting rainfall chances across Oregon and southern
   Idaho. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible closer to the
   international border on the northern periphery of the monsoonal
   moisture. Weak low pressure over the West will maintain weak
   gradient winds at the surface and reduce the potential for robust
   wind/RH-driven fire weather concerns.

   ...Eastern Washington and northern Idaho...
   Despite an increase in column precipitable water over the past 24
   hours, the observed 00z sounding from OTX reveals modest mid-level
   moisture atop a dry boundary layer. Low-level trajectories emanating
   from southwest Canada will maintain this dry layer through the day.
   While boundary-layer heating/mixing may be muted by increasing cloud
   cover, forecast soundings suggest increasing mid-level moisture will
   support sufficient destabilization for at least isolated
   thunderstorm chances by late afternoon. A mixture of wet/dry
   thunderstorms appears likely for this region, but given antecedent
   dry fuels, ongoing fire activity, and the dry conditions expected at
   the surface outside of precipitation cores, an isolated
   dry-thunderstorm risk area is introduced.

   Localized elevated wind/RH conditions may occur this afternoon
   across this region as well as across central MT. However, muted
   daytime heating and generally weak pressure-gradient winds will
   limit the coverage and duration of these conditions.

   ..Moore.. 07/31/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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