NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Mon May 10 19:38:03 UTC 2021
May 10, 2021 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal  Day 2 Surface Analysis 

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 101936

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0236 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   An Elevated area was added for portions of the Sacramento Valley,
   mainly for tomorrow morning into early afternoon. From roughly
   15-20Z, high-resolution guidance shows 15-20 mph sustained northerly
   surface winds overlapping with RH under 20% as a modest belt of
   30-40 kt 500 mb flow overspreads northern California. While the
   favorable winds/RH should only overlap for a few hours, an Elevated
   area was added given very receptive fuels in place. Otherwise, the
   Elevated across northwestern New Mexico was expanded in area since
   the latest guidance shows a larger overlap of 15+ mph sustained
   westerly surface winds coinciding with RH under 20%.

   Overlapping Elevated winds/RH are expected across northern parts of
   the Mid Atlantic into southern New England tomorrow afternoon within
   a post-cold frontal environment. However, recent rainfall has likely
   dampened fuels enough to reduce the wildfire-spread threat in most
   locales, with wildfire-growth potential remaining relatively
   localized.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/10/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1239 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021/

   ...Synopsis...
   The predominant zonal flow pattern anchored over the CONUS will
   begin to breakdown as the mid-level trough located over the Northern
   Rockies shifts eastward. This will result in a more diffuse height
   gradient in the West, and thus, a general weakening of the mid-level
   flow field. At the surface, high pressure will settle into the Great
   Basin region.

   ...Southwest...
   Despite the weakening flow aloft, diurnal heating/mixing should
   allow for sustained winds of 10-15 mph to develop in localized
   areas. Dry conditions will prevail across the region, with RH values
   falling into the teens. For the most part, any fire-weather concerns
   will likely be quite localized. However, there exists relative
   agreement among mid-range guidance for elevated fire-weather
   conditions developing across west-central portions of New Mexico
   into far east-central Arizona. Given this relative confidence, an
   elevated area has been introduced for this region.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK TO GET DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)



   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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