NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 30 21:52:02 UTC 2021
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 30, 2021
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sun, Aug 01, 2021 - Mon, Aug 02, 2021 D6Wed, Aug 04, 2021 - Thu, Aug 05, 2021
D4Mon, Aug 02, 2021 - Tue, Aug 03, 2021 D7Thu, Aug 05, 2021 - Fri, Aug 06, 2021
D5Tue, Aug 03, 2021 - Wed, Aug 04, 2021 D8Fri, Aug 06, 2021 - Sat, Aug 07, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 302148

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0448 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

   Valid 011200Z - 071200Z

   Upper ridging is expected to persist across the western CONUS
   through the Days 3-5/Sunday-Tuesday period, before a mid-level
   trough overspreads the West Coast and traverses the northern Rockies
   Days 6-8/Wednesday-Friday. While deep-layer moisture will initially
   be present along the West Coast, relatively drier mid-level air will
   accompany southwesterly mid-level flow by Day 4/Monday,
   overspreading the Northwest towards the end of the period. Dry and
   breezy conditions, along with potentially dry, isolated
   thunderstorms may occur with the mid-level trough approach/passage
   across parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies.
   However, details on preceding day(s) possible rainfall accumulations
   need to be resolved before fire weather highlights/probabilities may
   be added.

   ...Day 3/Sunday...
   Modest surface lee-troughing is expected across portions of Montana
   Sunday afternoon, leading to dry and breezy conditions across
   northern portions of the state. Guidance has come to a consensus
   that 15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds will overlap
   15-25% RH for multiple hours Sunday afternoon, warranting the
   introduction of 40% Critical probabilities.

   ...Day 4/Monday...
   Mid-level moisture will decline some across parts of the Pacific
   Northwest on Monday. However, precipitable water values within the
   0.75-1.0 inch range are expected to remain in place. With modest
   deep-layer ascent developing with the onset of increasing
   southwesterly flow, it is not out of the question for relatively
   drier thunderstorms to develop across far northern California into
   central/eastern Oregon and extreme northwest Nevada. The primary
   mitigating factor in adding dry thunderstorm probabilities at this
   time is the potential for appreciable rainfall accumulations in the
   Sunday/Monday time frame. If relatively drier thunderstorm potential
   persists in guidance, and appreciable rainfall accumulations are not
   realized in the next few days, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights
   may be needed in future outlooks.

   ...Days 6-8/Wednesday-Friday...
   As the mid-level trough traverses the northwest CONUS mid to late
   next week, dry and breezy conditions will likely occur, especially
   across terrain-favoring areas, including higher elevations/to the
   lee of the Cascades, Sierra, and northern Rockies. Some disagreement
   in model guidance regarding the exact placement of the most
   favorable dry/windy conditions, along with the aforementioned
   preceding rainfall, preclude fire weather highlights this outlook.

   ..Squitieri.. 07/30/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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