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Eastern Pacific Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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Central Pacific Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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Central Pacific Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Central Pacific Data and Image courtesy of Central Pacific Hurricane Center






Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060548
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jul 5 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Bonnie, located several hundred miles south-southwest of
southwestern Mexico.

1. Offshore of Central America/Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather has formed several hundred miles south
of the coast of Central America. This disturbance is expected to
spawn an area of low pressure southwest of the coast of southern
Mexico toward the end of the week. After that, environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the
system moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Hurricane Bonnie (EP4/EP042022)

...BONNIE SENDS ROUGH SURF TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 As of 9:00 PM MDT Tue Jul 5
 the center of Bonnie was located near 15.7, -107.1
 with movement WNW at 15 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 968 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Hurricane Bonnie Public Advisory Number 34

Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Jul 05 2022  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 060233
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
900 PM MDT Tue Jul 05 2022
 
...BONNIE SENDS ROUGH SURF TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 107.1W
ABOUT 335 MI...545 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 107.1 West.  Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A westward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast through the week with a
slight decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast tonight.  Gradual 
weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday and continue through 
Thursday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Bonnie will continue to affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
 

Hurricane Bonnie Forecast Advisory Number 34

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 06 2022  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 060232
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042022
0300 UTC WED JUL 06 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 107.1W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 107.1W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 106.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.1N 108.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.6N 110.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.1N 113.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.7N 115.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.4N 119.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.1N 122.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 20.0N 129.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 20.0N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 107.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI
 
 

Hurricane Bonnie Forecast Discussion Number 34

Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Jul 05 2022  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 060234
TCDEP4
 
Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
900 PM MDT Tue Jul 05 2022
 
Bonnie's cloud pattern has deteriorated since the previous 
advisory and the storm seems to be feeling the effects of some 
moderate north-northeasterly shear.  The eye has filled in and the 
colder cloud tops (of less than -80C) are less prevalent in the 
western portion of the circulation.  The initial intensity has been 
lowered to 95 kt, and this could be a generous estimate given the 
recent degradation of the inner core on satellite imagery.  
Vertical wind shear from the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance is 
forecast to remain moderate in the next 12 hours and will likely 
prevent Bonnie from strengthening further.  The storm is then 
expected to enter an increasingly drier environment, as seen in 
water vapor imagery just to the west of the hurricane, and move 
over cooler waters, which should speed up its weakening.  Bonnie is 
now expected to become post-tropical by day 4, which is consistent 
with simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF global 
models. The intensity forecast is mostly a continuation of the 
previous advisory, but slightly lower because of the lowered 
initial intensity.

Bonnie is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt along the southern 
periphery of a mid-level ridge to the north.  This ridge is 
forecast to weaken a bit in the next day or so and slightly 
reduce the forward speed of the system for a couple of days.  As 
the circulation weakens and becomes more shallow, it is expected to 
turn more westward and increase in forward speed following the 
lower-level flow.  The official track forecast is very similar to 
the previous advisory and closely follows the consensus aids.
 
Although Bonnie will be moving farther away from the southwestern
coast of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will
continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico for
another day or so.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 15.7N 107.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 16.1N 108.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 16.6N 110.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 17.1N 113.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 17.7N 115.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  08/1200Z 18.4N 119.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 19.1N 122.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 20.0N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  11/0000Z 20.0N 136.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
 

Hurricane Bonnie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 06 2022


383 
FOPZ14 KNHC 060233
PWSEP4
                                                                    
HURRICANE BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  34                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042022               
0300 UTC WED JUL 06 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 110W       34  4  39(43)   2(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
15N 110W       50  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
15N 110W       64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
20N 110W       34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1  11(12)  10(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   2( 2)  28(30)  48(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  31(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
15N 115W       34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  11(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)   3(24)   X(24)   X(24)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  41(44)   X(44)   X(44)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  28(36)   X(36)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   6(20)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI                                              
      

Hurricane Bonnie Graphics


Hurricane Bonnie 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Jul 2022 02:35:46 GMT

Hurricane Bonnie 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Jul 2022 03:22:37 GMT




Images and Forecasts Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center,
Script by SE Lincoln Weather.

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