Eastern Pacific Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
This product is updated at approximately 4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, and 10 PM PST from May 15 to November 30.
Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jul 5 2022
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Bonnie, located several hundred miles south-southwest of
southwestern Mexico.
1. Offshore of Central America/Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather has formed several hundred miles south
of the coast of Central America. This disturbance is expected to
spawn an area of low pressure southwest of the coast of southern
Mexico toward the end of the week. After that, environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the
system moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
...BONNIE SENDS ROUGH SURF TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
As of 9:00 PM MDT Tue Jul 5
the center of Bonnie was located near 15.7, -107.1
with movement WNW at 15 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 968 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
000
WTPZ34 KNHC 060233
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
900 PM MDT Tue Jul 05 2022
...BONNIE SENDS ROUGH SURF TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 107.1W
ABOUT 335 MI...545 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 107.1 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast through the week with a
slight decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight. Gradual
weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday and continue through
Thursday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will continue to affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
000
WTPZ24 KNHC 060232
TCMEP4
HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
0300 UTC WED JUL 06 2022
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 107.1W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 107.1W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 106.5W
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.1N 108.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.6N 110.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.1N 113.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.7N 115.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.4N 119.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.1N 122.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 20.0N 129.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 20.0N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 107.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 060234
TCDEP4
Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
900 PM MDT Tue Jul 05 2022
Bonnie's cloud pattern has deteriorated since the previous
advisory and the storm seems to be feeling the effects of some
moderate north-northeasterly shear. The eye has filled in and the
colder cloud tops (of less than -80C) are less prevalent in the
western portion of the circulation. The initial intensity has been
lowered to 95 kt, and this could be a generous estimate given the
recent degradation of the inner core on satellite imagery.
Vertical wind shear from the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance is
forecast to remain moderate in the next 12 hours and will likely
prevent Bonnie from strengthening further. The storm is then
expected to enter an increasingly drier environment, as seen in
water vapor imagery just to the west of the hurricane, and move
over cooler waters, which should speed up its weakening. Bonnie is
now expected to become post-tropical by day 4, which is consistent
with simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF global
models. The intensity forecast is mostly a continuation of the
previous advisory, but slightly lower because of the lowered
initial intensity.
Bonnie is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt along the southern
periphery of a mid-level ridge to the north. This ridge is
forecast to weaken a bit in the next day or so and slightly
reduce the forward speed of the system for a couple of days. As
the circulation weakens and becomes more shallow, it is expected to
turn more westward and increase in forward speed following the
lower-level flow. The official track forecast is very similar to
the previous advisory and closely follows the consensus aids.
Although Bonnie will be moving farther away from the southwestern
coast of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will
continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico for
another day or so.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 15.7N 107.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 16.1N 108.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 16.6N 110.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 17.1N 113.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 17.7N 115.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 18.4N 119.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 19.1N 122.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 20.0N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 11/0000Z 20.0N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
383
FOPZ14 KNHC 060233
PWSEP4
HURRICANE BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
0300 UTC WED JUL 06 2022
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 110W 34 4 39(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
15N 110W 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 110W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 11(12) 10(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 28(30) 48(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 11(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24)
20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) X(44) X(44)
20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11)
20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 28(36) X(36)
20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10)
20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20)
20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI
Air Quality
