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000
FXUS66 KSTO 052153
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
153 PM PST Sun Dec 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with areas of dense Valley fog tonight into tomorrow
morning. A few showers will be possible Monday as a weak system
moves through. Additional precipitation chances and cooler
temperatures expected late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Central Valley stratus continues to break up early this afternoon
with blue skies beginning to peak out through the low cloud cover.
Lowered temperatures a few degrees from the NBM where stratus has
lingered the longest, with areas without cloud cover already seeing
a decent warm up. Highs range from the mid 50s to low 70s in the
Valley (depending on stratus cover), with the mountains in the 40s
and 50s.

Fog and stratus looks to redevelop tonight with the latest HREF
suggesting the best chances for dense fog on the western side of the
Valley. Some north wind remains over the northern Sacramento Valley
tonight which may limit fog development to areas further south than
were seen this morning. Increasing cloud cover will be seen
throughout the day tomorrow as a weak system moves across our area
through Monday night. Some showers will be possible across all of
the area; however, the better chances will be in higher elevations.
Only a few hundredths of QPF are expected for any given location.

Dry weather returns Tuesday along with clearing skies and a bit
warmer temperatures than those seen on Monday. Another system
approaches the area on Wednesday and brings slightly better chances
for precipitation to interior NorCal.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)...
Clusters are in good agreement that a troughing will be over the
NW US Thursday, although the amplitude varies within this
guidance. Rain and mountain snow chances remain in the forecast
for Thursday, with the best chances for precipitation in the
higher elevations at this time. This quick system exits the area
Friday leaving dry and cooler than normal temperatures through
much of the weekend. Cold overnight lows expected. Ensembles still
point toward the potential for more widespread and impactful
precipitation toward the middle of the month.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions developing by 23z for all TAF sites. Areas of
FG/BR develop once again after 05z with widespread IFR/LIFR
conditions from KCIC south after 09z. Winds remain below 10 knots.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Sacramento, CA (STO) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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