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000
FXUS66 KSTO 052128
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
228 PM PDT Tue Jul 5 2022


.Synopsis...
Temperatures will remain below average this week. Dry weather is
expected except for a chance of light showers across the Coast
Range, northern Sacramento Valley and northern mountains today.

&&

.Discussion...Temperatures started this morning quite mild, about
7 to 13 degrees warmer than yesterday morning and at 1 pm were 3
to 6 degrees higher than 24 hours ago. Delta flow has weakened
with more limited cooling effects due to the mixed marine layer
and a weaker pressure gradient. Temperatures at 1 pm had risen to
the low to mid 80s for the Valley and Delta. Updated the forecast
this morning, increasing afternoon highs by around 4 degrees,
bringing highs in the upper 80s for much of the Valley.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies cover the mountains as an upper
trough remains off the coast. Mid level clouds have been replaced
by cumulus clouds. Radar indicates light rain showers continuing
over the northern Coastal Range and mountains of west Shasta
County. Mesoscale models indicate these showers diminishing by
early evening.

Satellite imagery shows some smoke from the Electra Fire this
afternoon. There was good humidity recovery and lighter northeast
winds into this morning. HRRR Near Surface Smoke has the smoke
tracking to the northeast as winds have shifted from light down
Valley/downslope this morning to breezy southwest this afternoon.
Winds have increased as the surface pressure gradient has
tightened. These winds are currently gusting to 20 mph over
ridges in the area. Alert Wildfire cameras are showing multiple
smoke plumes that have developed at the fire area. Winds after
midnight tonight are expected to return to light
downslope/downvalley winds.

An increased Delta breeze continues overnight bringing a cooler
morning than we saw today. Ensembles keep the main trough off
the PacNW coast the next several days continuing below-average
temperatures across interior NorCal through the work week.

Modest warming is expected this week as heights aloft increase
slightly, but continuing onshore flow will help to keep
temperatures a little below average. Dry weather is expected after
tonight.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)...

A weak short wave will pass over NorCal on Saturday but upper
level ridging building in from the desert southwest will continue
to bring a warming trend. Warming will continue into early next
week with Valley highs returning to near 100 by Sunday-Tuesday.
Long wave troughing over the Pacific will keep onshore winds and
will be breezy at times mainly over the Sierra and through the
Delta and will provide overnight cooling to influenced areas.


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions at the TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Winds
remain under 12 knots except in the Delta where gusts up to 25
knots will be possible.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Sacramento, CA (STO) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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