NWS Climate Prediction Center



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Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

Prognostic Discussions


Valid: Aug 10 - 14, 2020 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Aug 12 - 18, 2020 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Aug 04, 2020


Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Tue August 04 2020 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 10 - 14 2020 
 
Today’s model guidance is in good overall agreement on the predicted   
mid-tropospheric circulation pattern over North America and adjacent oceanic    
areas during the 6-10 day forecast period. Troughs are forecast over the Bering  
sea and the Pacific Coast of North America, while all models predict  
persistence of 500-hPa ridging over the west-central CONUS. Today's manual  
500-hPa height blend weights the ECMWF ensemble mean slightly greater than the  
NCEP GEFS and Canadian ensemble means, due to recent model skill. The resultant  
manual blend features below normal 500-hPa heights over most of Alaska. Near to  
slightly above normal 500-hPa heights are predicted over most of the central  
and eastern CONUS, while near to slightly below normal 500-hPa heights are  
forecast over the western CONUS. 
 
Positive 500-hPa height anomalies and southerly flow associated with the  
500-hPa ridge over the west-central CONUS increases probabilities of above  
normal temperatures over most of the central and eastern CONUS. Near to below  
normal temperatures are likely over the western CONUS related to the predicted  
trough. Negative 500-hPa height anomalies over Alaska increase the chances for near to below normal temperatures across Mainland Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle, while above normal temperatures are favored over the Aleutians due to the above normal SSTs. Forecast ridging over the west-central CONUS leads to near to below normal precipitation over much of the western and central CONUS. There are enhanced odds of above normal precipitation over parts of Washington, Northern Idaho, and western Montana, in association with an upper-level trough. Near to above normal precipitation is favored over most of the eastern CONUS, except for southern Florida where below normal is favored, as indicated by most model forecasts. A predicted 500-hPa trough over the Bering Sea increases chances of above normal precipitation over the Aleutians, southern mainland Alaska, and the Alaska Panhandle. Most tools favor near to below normal precipitation over northern mainland Alaska. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to good agreement among model circulation forecasts offset by some differences among the temperature and precipitation tools. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 12 - 18 2020 During the week-2 period, the predicted circulation features a deep trough over the West Coast, while broad ridging is predicated over the central CONUS. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast over most of the CONUS except for the northwestern CONUS where negative 500-hPa height anomalies are indicated. Below normal 500-hPa heights are forecast over much of Mainland Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle, while positive 500-hPa height anomalies are favored over far northern mainland Alaska and the Aleutians. The ECMWF ensemble mean was weighted most in the manual blend of 500-hPa height forecasts, due to recent model skill. The 8-14 day temperature outlook is very similar to the temperature pattern forecast for the 6-10 day period. Near to below normal temperatures continue to be likely for the northwestern CONUS, under a predicted trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies. Above normal temperatures continue to be favored over the central and eastern CONUS into the 8-14 day period, under continued positive 500-hPs height anomalies and ridging. Below normal temperatures are likely for most of southern Mainland Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle, under predicted below normal 500-hPa heights, while above normal temperatures are favored for the Aleutians in association with above normal SSTs. Above normal precipitation is likely over Washington extending eastward to Minnesota, under a predicted trough. Near to below normal precipitation continues to be most likely across most of the western and central CONUS, associated with mean ridging over the central CONUS. Near to above normal precipitation is favored for most of the eastern CONUS, except for southern Florida where below normal is favored, which is consistent with the operational Autoblend and ERF Consolidation tools. Above normal precipitation continues to be likely for the Aleutians, southern Mainland Alaska, and the Panhandle ahead of a trough over the Bering Sea, while below normal precipitation is likely for northern mainland Alaska. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 20% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to good agreement among model circulation forecasts offset by some differences among the temperature and precipitation tools. FORECASTER: Luke H Notes: Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1981-2010 base period means for temperature...precipitation...and 500-hpa heights as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on August 20. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20090720 - 19910809 - 19820808 - 20000730 - 19970719 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20090720 - 19970718 - 20000730 - 19820808 - 19910808 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Aug 10 - 14 2020 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A B UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Aug 12 - 18 2020 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B N NEVADA B B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
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