NWS Climate Prediction Center



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Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

Prognostic Discussions


Valid: Jan 23 - 27, 2019 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jan 25 - 31, 2019 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jan 17, 2019


PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST THU JANUARY 17 2019 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 23 - 27 2019 
 
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PREDICTING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED  
500-HPA FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A RELATIVELY DEEP MID-LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS. STRONG RIDGING IS ANTICIPATED FARTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. DOWNSTREAM, AMPLIFIED CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THE 500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND FAVORS BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND PARTS OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AS WELL AS FOR MOST OF THE CONUS BETWEEN THE ROCKIES AND THE APPALACHIANS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED FOR EASTERN PARTS OF MAINLAND ALASKA, THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, THE WESTERN CONUS, AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. THE AMPLIFIED, CYCLONIC FLOW FORECAST OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONUS FROM THE GREAT BASIN EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THE HIGHEST FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS NEAR THE PREDICTED MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS. SNOW COVER CONSIDERATIONS CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS LEAD TO SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WEST COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS, AND FOR MOST OF ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING, ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AND THE PANHANDLE, AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF A MEAN TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THERE ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE WEST FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. THERE ARE INCREASED ODDS OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWEST EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DUE TO A PREDICTED AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR ALASKA AHEAD OF A MEAN 500-HPA TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5, DUE TO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 500-HPA HEIGHT, TEMPERATURE, AND PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 25 - 31 2019 THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PREDICTING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MEAN 500-HPA TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. UPSTREAM, STRONG RIDGING IS PREDICTED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO MAINLAND ALASKA. A MEAN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, BUT WITH REDUCED AMPLITUDE RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA BLEND FEATURES BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED ACROSS ALASKA AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH FORECAST OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR THE EASTERN CONUS NEAR THE PREDICTED MEAN TROUGH AXIS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WEST COAST NEAR THE PREDICTED RIDGE AXIS. RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MEAN TROUGH NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD IS SIMILAR TO THAT PREDICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, EXCEPT IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THE EASTERN
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, SUPPORTING BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXPANDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, AND CONFINING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5, DUE TO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 500-HPA HEIGHT, TEMPERATURE, AND PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. FORECASTER: MIKE C NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19950102 - 19980131 - 19830127 - 19860131 - 19780113
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19950107 - 19780108 - 19780113 - 19950102 - 19780103 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JAN 23 - 27 2019 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING B A UTAH B B ARIZONA B B COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JAN 25 - 31 2019 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B B NEVADA B B W MONTANA B B E MONTANA N A WYOMING B A UTAH B B ARIZONA A B COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B N MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
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