NWS Climate Prediction Center



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Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

Prognostic Discussions


Valid: Aug 24 - 28, 2019 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Aug 26 - Sep 01, 2019 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Aug 18, 2019


Prognostic Discussions for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks. 
NWS Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2019 
  
There is no forecaster message written on weekends. 
  
Notes: 
 
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual  
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In  
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as  
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below 
 
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,  
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average  
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,  
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values  
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a  
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal  
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases  
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no  
precipitation. 
 
The climate prediction center uses 1981-2010 base period means for  
temperature...precipitation...and 500-hpa heights as reference in the climate  
outlooks. 
  
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:  
20020816 - 19930806 - 19560810 - 19520813 - 20020730 
  
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19560809 - 20000810 - 19930806 - 20020816 - 19520813 
  
6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Aug 24 - 28, 2019 
  
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    N      
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    B      
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    A    A      
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    A      
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    N      
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    N    A      
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   A    A      
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    A    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N      
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    A      
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  B    B     AK INT BSN  B    N      
AK S INT    B    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    B    A      
  
  
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Aug 26 - Sep 01, 2019 
  
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    N      
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    N      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    N      
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    B    N     S DAKOTA    B    N      
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A      
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A      
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    A      
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   N    A      
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    A    A      
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    N    A      
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    A      
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  B    N      
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    A      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 - ON AFOS AS 
NFDPMDMRD. 
  
$$ 

                   


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