NWS Climate Prediction Center



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Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

Prognostic Discussions


Valid: (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Oct 21, 2017


PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 
300 PM EDT SAT OCT 21 2017 
  
THERE IS NO FORECASTER MESSAGE WRITTEN ON WEEKENDS 
  
NOTES: 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. 
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT 
ISSUED. 
  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
  
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
20011031 - 19751104 - 19541009 - 19771027 - 19651016 
  
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19751103 - 19651016 - 20011030 - 19771027 - 19541010 
  
6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 27 - 31, 2017 
  
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   B    B     E MONTANA   B    N     WYOMING     B    B      
UTAH        N    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    B    N      
NEW MEXICO  N    B     N DAKOTA    B    N     S DAKOTA    B    B      
NEBRASKA    B    B     KANSAS      B    B     OKLAHOMA    B    B      
N TEXAS     B    B     S TEXAS     B    B     W TEXAS     B    B      
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B      
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    N     WISCONSIN   B    N      
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    B    A      
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A      
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A      
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    N    A      
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  B    A     GEORGIA     B    A      
FL PNHDL    B    A     FL PENIN    N    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A      
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A      
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    N      
  
  
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 29 - NOV 04, 2017 
  
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     A    B      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B      
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    B    N     S DAKOTA    B    B      
NEBRASKA    B    B     KANSAS      B    B     OKLAHOMA    B    B      
N TEXAS     B    B     S TEXAS     B    B     W TEXAS     B    B      
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B      
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    B     WISCONSIN   B    N      
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    B     MICHIGAN    B    N      
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    B      
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    B     NEW YORK    N    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  B    N      
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    B    A      
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    A     GEORGIA     B    N      
FL PNHDL    B    B     FL PENIN    N    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A      
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A      
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    B      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 - ON AFOS AS 
NFDPMDMRD. 
  
$$ 

                   


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