NWS Climate Prediction Center



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Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

Prognostic Discussions


Valid: May 30 - Jun 03, 2019 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jun 01 - 07, 2019 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: May 24, 2019


Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 30 - JUN 03, 2019 
 
Model agreement has improved since yesterday regarding the 6-10 day period,  
with the GEFS again showing mid-level low pressure over Ontario. Today's manual  
blend favors negative height anomalies for the Great Lakes and the Upper  
Mississippi Valley as a result of this mid-level low. A forecast deamplifying  
pattern favors a trend toward normal 500-hPa heights over much of the CONUS,  
with some initial positive and negative anomalies favored for the East and West  
respectively. Mid-level low pressure moving through the Gulf of Alaska favors  
near to below normal heights for the southern half of the mainland, in addition  
to the Aleutians and the Panhandle. 
 
Above normal temperature probabilities are favored for much of the East due to  
surface high pressure over the Western Atlantic and southwesterly flow. The  
influence of mid-level low pressure over Ontario favors increased below normal  
temperature probabilities for the Great Lakes, Upper Mississippi Valley, and  
the Northern Plains. Farther to the West, troughing is favored at the start of  
the period, with some weakening late. Today's forecast continues to support  
some elevated below normal temperature probabilities, but these are reduced  
relative to yesterday. With ridging forecast over western Canada, above normal  
temperatures are favored for the Pacific Northwest and western California. Near  
to below normal temperatures are favored for southern mainland Alaska and the  
Panhandle due to aforementioned mid-level low pressure. Above normal  
temperatures are forecast over the Aleutians and northern mainland Alaska,  
under higher 500-hPa heights. 
 
Above normal precipitation probabilities remain elevated for most of the West  
due to forecast troughing. Ridging over western Canada favors increased below  
normal precipitation probabilities for the Pacific Northwest. Surface high  
pressure off the East Coast favors increased below normal precipitation  
probabilities over the Southeast and Gulf Coast, but these are reduced in  
coverage compared to yesterday as high pressure moves further offshore and the  
flow across the CONUS becomes more zonal. With troughing positioned over the  
West, southerly flow over the Plains and Mississippi Valley favors enhanced  
chances of above normal precipitation. The ECMWF ensemble mean shows a  
precipitation maximum over eastern Oklahoma with over 2 inches of rain forecast  
during the period. Frontal activity may enhance precipitation across the Middle  
and Upper Mississippi Valley, into the Great Lakes and Northeast due to the  
aforementioned mid-level low pressure over Ontario. On the backside of this  
system, below normal precipitation probabilities are increased over parts of  
the Northern Plains. Mid-level low pressure forecast south of the Alaskan  
mainland favors increased probabilities of above normal precipitation over most  
of Alaska, particularly the southern mainland and the Panhandle. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 20% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 10% of Today's operational 6z GFS centered on  
Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 10% of  
Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8, and 20% of Today's 0z Canadian  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good  
agreement between models and tools on most features, offset by uncertainty  
related to a deamplifying pattern. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 01 - 07 2019  
 
Good agreement exists among today's model solutions of weak split flow over the  
West, with otherwise zonal flow over the rest of the CONUS in the week-2  
period. As a result, near normal 500-hPa heights are forecast for much of the  
CONUS, with some indication in the model guidance of ridging beginning to build  
over the central CONUS late in the period. The GEFS and Canadian ensembles show  
troughing building into the East, downstream of the developing ridge. However,  
the ECMWF ensembles are less robust, maintaining the Pacific flow pattern. 
 
Initially, below normal temperatures are favored for much of the West as  
troughing is forecast to have an influence. However, as this troughing weakens,  
a trend toward warmer temperatures is favored throughout week-2, resulting in  
an average of near normal temperatures forecast over a large region. Above  
normal temperatures are favored for the Southwest and Southern Plains due to  
the potential for ridging and increasing 500-hPa heights later in week-2.  
Increased above normal temperature probabilities continue to be favored for the  
East, but these are lowered compared to yesterday due to the weakening  
southwesterly flow and near normal 500-hPa heights. Weak ridging over western  
Canada also favors increased above normal temperature probabilities over the  
Northern Rockies. Upstream, the influence of mid-level low pressure now  
forecast to be centered near or off the coast of British Columbia favors near  
normal temperatures over the Pacific Northwest. Due to the forecast near to  
below normal heights over southern mainland Alaska and the Panhandle, increased  
below normal temperature probabilities are highlighted. Above normal  
temperature probabilities are favored for the remainder of the state. 
 
The precipitation probability forecast during week-2 is more uncertain due to  
the pattern becoming more zonal. Initial troughing favors above normal  
precipitation for much of the western CONUS, with the exception of the Pacific  
Northwest, where below normal precipitation is forecast. Pacific flow favors a  
west to east storm track across the CONUS elevating chances of above normal  
precipitation over most of the central and eastern CONUS. There is a continued  
signal in the ECMWF ensembles for elevated precipitation chances for parts of  
the Central and Southern Plains, especially for the first half of week-2.  
Increased above normal precipitation probabilities remain favored for much of  
mainland Alaska and the Panhandle, under the continued influence of mid-level  
low pressure. 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 20% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 60% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 11, and 20% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on  
Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to  
forecast development of a zonal pattern and lack of amplified features. 
 
FORECASTER: Thomas Collow 
 
Notes: 
 
 
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual  
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In  
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as  
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below 
 
 
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,  
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average  
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,  
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values  
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a  
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal  
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases  
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no  
precipitation. 
 
 
The climate prediction center uses 1981-2010 base period means for  
temperature...precipitation...and 500-hpa heights as reference in the climate  
outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
June 20. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19950512 - 19590519 - 20080524 - 19640607 - 20070521 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19950513 - 20080524 - 19670503 - 19590519 - 20040521 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for May 30 - Jun 03, 2019 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    A      
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      B    A      
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     N    A      
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO    B    A      
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    B    N     S DAKOTA    B    N      
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A      
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     N    A      
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    N    A      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   B    A      
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    B    A      
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N      
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    B      
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  A    A      
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A      
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    B    A      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jun 01 - 07 2019 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  N    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B      
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      A    A      
W MONTANA   N    B     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     N    A      
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    A      
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    N    A      
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A      
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    A      
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    A    A      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   B    A      
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    B    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N      
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A      
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A      
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   


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