NWS Climate Prediction Center



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Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

Prognostic Discussions


Valid: Jun 19 - 23, 2024 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jun 21 - 27, 2024 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jun 13, 2024


Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Thu June 13 2024 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 19 - 23 2024 
 
Dynamical models remain in very good agreement regarding the 500-hPa height  
pattern across North America during the 6-10 day period. At the outset of the  
period, highly amplified ridging is forecast across the eastern CONUS, with the  
0z ECENS, GEFS, and CMCE indicating 500-hPa heights near or greater than 594  
dam over parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Troughing is  
initially favored across the West, with the mid-level pattern forecast to  
de-amplify across the CONUS by day-10, resulting in weakening positive height  
anomalies in the East and increasing positive height anomalies in the West.  
Today’s manual 6-10 day height blend depicts positive height anomalies east of  
the Rockies, with a maxima of +150 meters across New England. Near normal  
heights are forecast across the West given the transitional pattern. Near- to  
below normal heights are depicted over most of Alaska underneath weak troughing  
over the Bering Sea and parts of the Mainland during the period.  
 
Strong ridging and its associated positive height anomalies favor high  
probabilities of above-normal temperatures throughout much of the eastern and  
central CONUS. The largest probabilities (above 90 percent) are forecast across  
the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast where the ECENS and CMCE depict 5-day  
temperatures averaging more than 10 degrees F above normal. Probabilities for  
above-normal temperatures are reduced across central to southern Texas due to  
the likelihood of enhanced rainfall. An amplified trough early in the period  
tilts the temperature outlook towards below-normal across parts of the Northern  
Rockies, but with increasing chances for above-normal temperatures over the  
Southwest and West Coast as the ridging expands westward with time. Over  
Alaska, weak troughing favors increased probabilities for below-normal  
temperatures over western and northern Alaska including the Aleutians, with  
near- to above-normal temperature chances increased over the remainder of the  
state. Enhanced above-normal temperature probabilities are favored across  
Hawaii consistent with the consolidation forecast tool. 
 
Prior to the 6-10 day period, a broad area of low pressure may form over the  
southwestern Gulf of Mexico or Bay of Campeche, with the National Hurricane  
Center designating a 40 percent chance of development into a tropical cyclone.  
Regardless of tropical development, this feature is forecast to result in  
enhanced precipitation along much of the Gulf Coast, with the highest totals  
likely across southeastern Texas (south of Galveston). The 6-10 day  
precipitation outlook reflects this most likely outcome with its largest  
above-normal precipitation probabilities (50 to 70 percent) over south Texas,  
and with increasing chances for above-normal precipitation extending to the  
Four Corners and Central and Southern Rockies as this enhanced moisture spreads  
further inland leading to the potential for diurnal convection. Troughing aloft  
early in the period favors above-normal precipitation from the Pacific  
Northwest east to the Northern Rockies, but increasing heights favor a tilt  
toward elevated below-normal precipitation chances over parts of California and  
Nevada. Downstream of the trough over the western CONUS and to the north of the  
500-hPa ridge axis, above-normal precipitation is favored for the northern to  
central Great Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Underneath the ridging in  
the East, below-normal precipitation chances are increased from the Middle  
Mississippi Valley eastward through the Mid-Atlantic coast. Weak troughing  
across Mainland Alaska during the period generally favors elevated near- to  
above-normal precipitation chances across the state. Above-normal precipitation  
probabilities are increased across Hawaii. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 35% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 5% of Today's operational 6z GFS centered on  
Day 8, 35% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 5% of  
Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8, and 20% of Today's 0z Canadian  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to  
high confidence regarding a heat wave over the East early in the period, offset  
by some increasing uncertainty in the pattern evolution toward day-10. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 21 - 27 2024  
 
There is increasing uncertainty during week-2 as the mid-level height pattern  
becomes less amplified across the CONUS, with a de-amplification of the ridge  
in the East along with weak troughing lingering near the West Coast and some  
expansion of the positive height anomalies into parts of the western CONUS.  
While positive height anomalies remain favored over much of the CONUS during  
the period, they are notably weaker than in the 6-10 day period over the East  
as ensemble variability increases across the region, with the GEFS being the  
most pronounced depicting closer to normal mid-level heights by the end of  
week-2, while the ECENS maintains weakly positive height anomalies. The manual  
height blend for week-2 depicts weakly positive height anomalies across much of  
the CONUS, with a maxima of +60 meters across the Great Lakes and Northeast,  
and a small region of near-normal heights across the extreme northwestern  
CONUS. Positive height anomalies are forecast over Alaska as troughing at the outset of the period weakens allowing for an expansion of the north Pacific ridge across the state. Due to the broad coverage of positive 500-hPa height anomalies, elevated probabilities for above-normal temperatures are favored over most of the CONUS. The highest probabilities (above 70 percent) are highlighted across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast tied to the very warm temperature anomalies forecast early in the period. The aforementioned influx of Gulf moisture favors decreased probabilities for above-normal temperatures across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley compared to further north, with near-normal temperatures forecast across parts of Texas. Near- to below-normal temperature chances are increased over the Pacific Northwest based on the uncalibrated GEFS and ECENS models as well as the analogs. Signals remain weak across Alaska, with the GEFS and ECENS reforecast tools, along with uncalibrated guidance, supporting a slight tilt toward increased below-normal temperature chances across the Aleutians, western Mainland, and Southeast Alaska. Elevated near- to above-normal temperature probabilities are favored over the rest of the state given increasing positive mid-level height anomalies. Near- to above-normal temperature chances are increased across Hawaii. As in the 6-10 day forecast, there is good agreement regarding increased tropical moisture across the Gulf Coast, particularly over Texas, supporting enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation into week-2 with the highest probabilities (greater than 50 percent) over extreme south Texas. Elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities extend northwest to the Four Corners region as enhanced Gulf moisture may spread that far inland and there could be isolated to scattered convection. There is more uncertainty across the Midwest and east to the Mid-Atlantic, where the GEFS brings more of the tropical moisture northward late in week-2 given its depiction of lower mid-level heights compared to the ECENS. Precipitation would be welcome in these areas given the hot and dry conditions in the days prior, but the uncalibrated ECENS continues to favor below-normal precipitation for these areas during week-2. Given these differences, a broad area of near-normal precipitation is highlighted from the Central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Shortwave troughs tracking from the Pacific Northwest and to the north of the ridge favor a swath of increased above-normal precipitation probabilities from the Pacific Northwest east to the northern Great Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. The decreasing amplitude of the ridge also favors a more zonal flow pattern developing across the Great Lakes and Northeast allowing for a continued eastward progression of the above-normal precipitation chances into these areas. Precipitation tools offer relatively weak signals with an ill-defined surface and 500-hPa height pattern. The GEFS and ECENS reforecast tools generally agree on a slight tilt towards above-normal precipitation across much of Mainland Alaska. Based on the consolidated forecast tool, above-normal precipitation chances are increased over Hawaii. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 35% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 35% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good agreement regarding the pattern evolution, offset by more uncertainty related to a less amplified pattern, particularly in regards to the precipitation forecast over parts of the East later in the period. FORECASTER: Thomas Collow Notes: Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on June 20. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20030530 - 19940610 - 19990524 - 20060618 - 20010528 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20060619 - 20030530 - 20070617 - 19870604 - 19960603 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jun 19 - 23 2024 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N N NEVADA N B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A UTAH N A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jun 21 - 27 2024 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
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