NWS Climate Prediction Center



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Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

Prognostic Discussions


Valid: Nov 29 - Dec 03, 2020 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Dec 01 - 07, 2020 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Nov 23, 2020


Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EST Mon November 23 2020 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 29 - DEC 03, 2020 
 
Today’s model guidance is in good overall agreement on the predicted  
mid-tropospheric circulation pattern over North America and adjacent oceanic  
areas during the 6-10 day forecast period. Troughs are forecast over the Bering  
Sea and western Mainland Alaska as well as the eastern CONUS, while ridghing is  
forecast over the western CONUS. Today's manual 500-hPa height blend weights  
the ECMWF ensemble mean slightly greater than the NCEP GEFS and Canadian  
ensemble means, due to recent model skill. The resultant manual blend features  
above normal 500-hPa heights over the western and north-central CONUS as well  
as parts of the Northeast, while below normal 500-hPa heights are forecast over  
most of the eastern CONUS extending westward to parts of the Southern Plains.  
Below normal 500-hP heights are predicted over Mainland Alaska and the  
Aleutians. 
 
Enhanced probabilities for near to above normal temperatures are favored across  
most of the western and northern CONUS, under predicted ridging and associated  
positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Below normal temperatures are likely across  
much of the southeastern CONUS, in association with the trough over the eastern  
CONUS. Below normal temperatures are forecast over western Mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, while near to above normal temperatures are favored across eastern Mainland Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle, consistent with the GEFS and ECMWF Calibrated Reforecast tools. The expectation of a predicted trough slowly moving east resulted in increased probabilities of below normal temperatures across western Alaska relative to yesterday’s outlook. Forecast ridging and positive 500-hPa height anomalies lead to favored near to below normal precipitation over much of the western and central CONUS. There are enhanced probabilities of above normal precipitation across the eastern CONUS from the Appalachians extending eastward to the Atlantic Coast, underneath a predicted 500-hPa trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies. A trough predicted over the Bering Sea increases chances of near to above normal precipitation for Alaska. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to good agreement among model circulation forecasts offset by some differences among the temperature and precipitation tools. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 01 - 07 2020 Models are in good agreement in terms of the 500-hPa height pattern over North America during week-2. The models continue predicting troughing over the Bering Sea and western Alaska associated with negative 500-hPa height anomalies. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast over much of the northern CONUS, while near to below normal 500-hPa heights are predicted over most of the southern CONUS. The ECMWF ensemble mean was weighted most in the manual blend of 500-hPa height forecasts, due to recent model skill. The 8-14 day temperature outlook is very similar to the temperature pattern forecast for the 6-10 day period. Above normal temperatures continue to be favored over the western and northern CONUS into the 8-14 day period, under continued positive 500-hPs height anomalies and ridging. Near to below normal temperatures continue to be likely for the southeastern CONUS, under a predicted trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies. The GEFS and ECMWF Calibrated Reforecast tools support below normal temperatures over western Mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, and above normal temperatures across eastern Mainland Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle. The expectation of a predicted trough slowly moving east resulted in a trend towards increased probabilities of below normal temperature across western Mainland Alaska. Near to below normal precipitation is likely across most of the CONUS, except for parts of the Middle Atlantic and the Northeast, where above normal precipitation is favored, supported by most precipitation forecast tools. Enhanced onshore flow, associated with a surface low, favors a continuation of above normal precipitation for much of Alaska into the beginning of December, consistent with the GEFS and ECMWF Calibrated Reforecast tools. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 20% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to good agreement among model circulation forecasts offset by some differences among the temperature and precipitation tools. FORECASTER: Luke H Notes: Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1981-2010 base period means for temperature...precipitation...and 500-hpa heights as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on December 17. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 19991120 - 19981202 - 19781103 - 19931204 - 20091103 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20071102 - 19781106 - 19991121 - 20091102 - 19981204 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Nov 29 - Dec 03, 2020 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA N B OHIO N N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Dec 01 - 07 2020 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN A B INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN N N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
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