NWS Climate Prediction Center



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Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

Prognostic Discussions


Valid: Jan 23 - 27, 2020 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jan 25 - 31, 2020 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jan 17, 2020


Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EST Fri January 17 2020 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 23 - 27 2020 
 
The GFS and ECMWF ensemble means and their deterministic model runs feature an  
amplifying trough over the Southwest which results in a fast return of  
upper-level ridging across the eastern third of the CONUS. The 0Z ECMWF  
ensemble mean features positive 500-hPa height departures of more than 150  
meters across the Northeast. After a brief period of below normal temperatures,  
a rapid warming trend is likely to expand east from the central U.S. Above  
normal temperatures are likely from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast  
with the largest probabilities across the Great Lakes where daily temperature  
anomalies of +10 to +20 degrees F are forecast early in the period. The  
amplifying upper-level trough favors near to below normal temperatures for  
parts of the Southwest and central Rockies. Pacific flow continues to favor  
above normal temperatures along the West Coast.  
 
The amplified upper-level trough is likely to result in lee side cyclogenesis  
across the southern Great Plains on day 6. Despite good model agreement on the  
development of this surface low, its subsequent track continues to vary among  
model solutions. The largest probabilities of above normal precipitation are  
centered over the southern Great Plains where heavy precipitation is more  
likely as the surface low develops and interacts with inflow from the western  
Gulf of Mexico. 48-hour precipitation amounts (days 6 and 7) from the 0Z and  
12Z ECMWF model range from 1 to 3.5 inches across central and eastern Texas.  
Although increased chances of above normal precipitation extend as far north as  
the northern Great Plains and also covers the eastern CONUS, probabilities are  
lower due to large ensemble spread on where the low pressure system tracks from  
the southern Great Plains. Near to above normal precipitation is favored across  
the western CONUS due to the upper-level trough aloft and onshore flow.  
Conversely, offshore flow elevates chances for below normal precipitation and  
temperatures across western mainland Alaska. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 25% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 10% of Today's operational 6z GFS centered on  
Day 8, 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 15% of  
Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to  
good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF model solutions on an amplified  
upper-level trough over the Southwest.  
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 25 - 31 2020  
 
The amplifying upper-level trough over the Southwest next week continues to  
complicate the temperature outlook during Week-2. Although the current state of  
the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) would favor a colder outcome across the  
eastern U.S., this upper-level trough and associated warm air advection early  
in Week-2 favor above normal temperatures across the eastern third of the  
CONUS. The lack of a high amplitude and persistent upper-level ridge over northwest North America reduces the likelihood of any major arctic outbreaks to enter the CONUS during the early part of Week-2. Therefore, above normal temperatures remain slightly favored along the northern tier of the CONUS, although probabilities are low. The increased chances for below normal temperatures across the central to southern Rockies along with the southern Great Plains are related to the upper-level trough aloft. Model guidance continues to depict a split flow pattern from the North Pacific into western North America along with an active southern stream during Week-2. This predicted longwave pattern yields increased chances of above normal precipitation along much of the West Coast, interior West, and south-central
CONUS. The low pressure system that develops across the south-central U.S., prior to Week-2, is expected to track east of the Mississippi River by day 8. Based on the large positive 500-hpa height anomalies over the eastern half of Canada, the mid-latitude storm track is expected to be displaced southward which elevates chances for below normal precipitation across the Great Lakes along with the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. An upper-level trough over the Aleutians is forecast to result in an increasingly wet pattern and favor above normal temperatures across the Alaska Peninsula, coastal southern Alaska, and the Alaska Panhandle. Surface high pressure northeast of Alaska leads to elevated chances of below normal temperatures for western and northern mainland Alaska. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 35% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 65% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to continued uncertainty on if and when arctic air shifts south from Canada. FORECASTER: Brad Pugh Notes: Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1981-2010 base period means for temperature...precipitation...and 500-hpa heights as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on February 20. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 19520113 - 19660101 - 19921228 - 19750131 - 20040101 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 19520112 - 19651231 - 19520117 - 19921228 - 19750130 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jan 23 - 27 2020 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA N A W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA N A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL A N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jan 25 - 31 2020 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N N NEVADA N A W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING N N UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA A B IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
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