NWS Climate Prediction Center



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Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

Prognostic Discussions


Valid: Oct 27 - 31, 2019 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Oct 29 - Nov 04, 2019 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Oct 21, 2019


Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Mon October 21 2019 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 27 - 31 2019 
 
Today's model solutions are in good agreement on certain areas of the large  
scale 500-hPa height pattern forecast over the U.S. during the 6-10 day period,  
though some disagreement exists for other parts of the country. All models  
predict very large positive height anomalies over Alaska (approaching 3  
standard deviations at some point) associated with a ridge extending from off  
the Pacific Northwest coast to the Arctic circle. Downstream, a trough is  
expected to deepen in the western CONUS and become positively tilted. This is  
where some larger differences come into play. The 0z ECMWF ensemble mean is  
forecasting the trough to dig further south and west, while the 06z GFS  
ensemble mean predicts a slightly more progressive trough. The Canadian is  
vastly different, and is not considered in today's manual 500-hPa blend, which  
favors the 0z ECMWF ensemble mean. It appears that the last few deterministic  
GFS runs are not consistent with most of the other model solutions that favor  
trough energy in the Southwest U.S., so they are also not considered in the  
blend. Finally, there has been a general trend in most models over the last few days toward more troughing in the Southwest, further supporting this solution. Very large positive height anomalies strongly favor above normal temperatures across Alaska. Downstream the trough expected to impact the western and central U.S. favors below normal temperatures, particularly over parts of the Northern Great Basin, Rockies, and Plains. Southerly low-level flow ahead of a forecast trough developing in the central CONUS increases the likelihood of above normal temperatures for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. One or more storm systems riding over the ridge predicted near western Canada and Alaska is expected to bring precipitation to the Aleutians and Mainland Alaska, favoring above normal precipitation in those areas. Downstream of this anomalous ridge, essentially zero precipitation is predicted by today's models, leading to very large probabilities of below normal precipitation for the Pacific Northwest, extending into parts of California and the Great Basin. Upslope flow associated with some cyclogenesis expected in the lee of the Rockies increases chances of above normal precipitation for parts of the Northern and Central Plains. The cold front predicted in the central U.S., ahead of the trough, may bring relatively large amounts of rain into the eastern U.S., favoring above normal precipitation there. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 30% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 50% of Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to good model agreement on a high amplitude pattern offset slightly by uncertainty in the temperature and precipitation outlook across the eastern U.S. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 29 - NOV 04, 2019 For week-2, the pattern over the U.S. and surrounding areas is expected to become less amplified as the flow becomes more progressive over the western U.S. The mean trough is forecast to move eastward into the Great Lakes Region and New England, but the 0z ECMWF ensemble favors keeping a great deal of trough energy back in the western CONUS during much of the week 2 period, while the GFS has a much more progressive trough which is forecast to move into Canada during the middle of the week 2 period. Since the 0z ECMWF is still favored in the week 2 500-hPa blend, trough energy is still expected in the Southwest through the Central Plains, Great Lakes region, and Northeast. Temperatures are still expected to be above normal over all of Alaska since the positive temperature anomalies are predicted to be so high during the beginning portion of the week 2 period. Below normal temperatures are favored from the West Coast of the CONUS, eastward into the Great Lakes and Northeast as the trough spreads eastward. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal in the Southeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic associated with the larger positive temperature anomalies before the cold front moves off the East Coast. The precipitation pattern forecast during the week 2 period is very similar to the 6-10 day period. The highly anomalous first half of the week 2 period is expected favor Alaska remaining above normal, and the western U.S. below normal, with respect to precipitation. The predicted storm system expected to bring upslope flow and above normal precipitation to the Northern Rockies will exit that area by the week 2 period, favoring near to below normal precipitation for that area. The above normal precipitation favored over for the Southern Plains, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic is mainly supported by the 0z ECMWF ensemble's solution of a slower-moving trough in the Central CONUS. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 30% of Yesterday's operational 18z GFS centered on Day 10, and 50% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to good model agreement on a high amplitude pattern offset slightly by uncertainty in the temperature and precipitation outlook across the eastern U.S. FORECASTER: Mike C Notes: Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1981-2010 base period means for temperature...precipitation...and 500-hpa heights as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on November 21. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 19961023 - 19691001 - 19611026 - 20011009 - 19951001 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 19961022 - 20011010 - 19951001 - 19690930 - 19671025 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Oct 27 - 31 2019 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B B NEVADA B B W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Oct 29 - Nov 04, 2019 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B B NEVADA B B W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B B WYOMING B B UTAH B B ARIZONA B N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
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