Space Weather Forecast Discussion
| Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center |
| Issued: 2021 Jan 18 0030 UTC |
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| Solar activity was very low. Region 2796 (S21W32, Axx/Alpha) produced
B-class activity during the period. New Region 2797 (S18E746, Hsx/Alpha)
quietly rotated onto the SE limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in available imagery. |
| Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a slight
chance for C-class activity, on 18-20 Jan. |
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| The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values. |
| The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 18-19 Jan. Moderate to high levels are expected by 20
Jan due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to persist at background levels. |
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| Solar wind parameters remained at nominal levels through the period.
Solar wind speeds slowly decreased through the period from 305 km/s to
end-of-period speeds near 275 km/s. Total field remained at and below 5
nT and the Bz component varied between +1 to -4 nT. The phi angle was in
a predominately positive orientation. |
| Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced on 18 Jan. A
negative polarity CH HSS extension off the southern crown is expected to
move into a geoeffective position, creating enhancements in the solar
wind parameters. Enhancements are expected to continue through 20 Jan
with additional HSS activity from positive polarity CHs in the northern
hemisphere. |
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| The geomagnetic field was quiet. |
| The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels with active
periods likely on 18-20 Jan due to CH HSS influence. |
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