Space Weather Forecast Discussion
| Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center |
| Issued: 2018 Jul 22 1230 UTC |
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| Solar activity was very low. New Region 2716 (N16, Lo=200) decayed to
plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite
imagery. |
| Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (22-24
Jul). |
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| The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values. |
| The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the forecast period (22-24 Jul). The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels. |
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| Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested
waning influence from positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds
declined from a brief peak of 590 km/s at 21/1514 UTC to near 500 km/s
by the periods end. Total magnetic field strength declined to between
3-6 nT after 21/1330 UTC. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the
positive sector. |
| Solar wind speed is expected to decrease on day one (22 Jul) as CH HSS
conditions diminish. By late on day two and continuing through day three
(23-24 Jul), the onset of a CIR in advance of a negative polarity CH HSS
is expected to cause an enhancement in solar wind parameters. Solar wind
data from STEREO-A suggest wind speeds of 600-650 km/s at likely. |
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| The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. |
| The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
day one (22 Jul) as positive polarity CH HSS effects slowly wane. In
response to the onset of influence from a negative polarity CH HSS,
active conditions are likely on day two (23 Jul) and G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on day three (24 Jul). |
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