Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Issued: 2021 Apr 22 1230 UTC

Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 2816 (S24W12, Cai/beta) produced multiple C-class flares including, a C3/1f flare at 22/0435 UTC. This flare was associated with Type II and Type IV radio sweeps. Region 2817 (N18W86, Dao/beta) produced several C-class flares including the largest event of the period, a C4 flare at 22/0921 UTC. Spot analysis was difficult for this region due to its proximity to the west limb. Region 2818 (S17E32, Hsx/alpha) was stable, lacking any significant flare activity. Analysis is ongoing to determine if any of these events contain an Earth-directed component. Of particular interest is the C3/1f flare from Region 2816 due to its center disk location and observed radio signatures.
Solar activity is likely to be low, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flares on 22-23 Apr.

Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 12,700 pfu observed at 21/1455 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels throughout the remainder of the forecast period (22-24 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment returned to near background conditions. Wind speed began the period near 650 km/s and gradually decreased to end the period below 420 km/s. Total field peaked at 6 nT. Bz dropped as low as -4 nT. Phi angle was variable.
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at near background conditions until late on 23 Apr when negative-polarity CH HSS influence prevails.

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the remainder of 22 Apr. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 23-24 Apr due to anticipated coronal hole activity.
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