Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Issued: 2017 Dec 17 0030 UTC

Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remained spotless. The filament eruption mentioned in previous discussion products, that occurred at approximately 15/1229 UTC, was determined to contain a potentially geoeffective component. ENLIL model analysis suggests a southeasterly trajectory with a radial velocity of approximately 245 km/s. Based on this transit speed any potential impacts to the Earths magnetosphere should occur late on day three (19 Dec), in conjunction with the forecasted positive polarity CH HSS. There were no additional Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the reporting period.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next three days (17-19 Dec).

Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day one (17 Dec). An increase to moderate to high levels is likely on days two and three (18-19 Dec) in response to elevated wind speeds from a recurrent CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated background conditions through most of the period with a slight enhancement late in the period. Solar wind speeds ranged between 320-370 km/s. Total magnetic field strength was below 4 nT for most of the day. After 16/2100 UTC, a increase to 10 nT was observed but no significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Phi angle was oriented in a mostly positive solar sector.
.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to continue near background levels until late on day one (17 Dec) when elevated wind speeds and enhanced total field measurements will announce the arrival of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds are anticipated to exceed 600 km/s with this feature. An additional enhancement is possible late on day three (19 Dec) due to glancing blow impacts from the aforementioned CME from 15 Dec.

Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels until late on day one (17 Dec) when unsettled to active conditions are expected due to the anticipated arrival of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on days two and three (18-19 Dec) under persistent CH HSS influence and potential glancing blow effects from the 15 Dec CME.
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