Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center |
Issued: 2024 Mar 19 1230 UTC |
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Solar activity reached high levels (R2-Moderate) with a few M-class
flares observed during the period. The strongest event of the period was
an impulsive M6.7 flare observed at 18/1919 UTC from new Region 3615
(S12E62, Eao/beta-gamma). This AR was also responsible for an M1.4 flare
at 19/0229 UTC. Regions 3614 (N16E42, Dai/beta) and 3616 (N02W46,
Dai/beta-gamma) were the culprits for multiple C-class flares throughout
the period with that latter showing signs of evolution, gaining a weak
gamma signature in its intermediate area. New, simple bipolar spots were
noted near N22W23, but remain unnumbered at this time as we await USAF
observatory observations. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available imagery. |
Solar activity is expected to be low over 19-21 Mar, with a chance for
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate). |
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The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was elevated above background
levels, but remained well below event threshold. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. |
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain elevated, but
below event levels on 19 Mar, and slowly return to background levels
over 20-21 Mar. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be
at normal to moderate levels. |
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Solar wind parameters reflected likely transient influences beginning at
approximately 18/1942 UTC. Total field increased to 9-11 nT, and the Bz
component underwent a prolonged, southward deflection reaching -10 nT
Solar wind speeds increased from ~304 km/s to ~338 km/s, and then
steadily increased thereafter to near ~380 km/s. Phi became relatively
variable during this time. |
Weakly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 19
Mar and the first half of 20 Mar. Enhanced solar wind conditions
are expected after midday on 20 Mar through 21 Mar due to the
anticipated arrival of CMEs associated with the 17 Mar filament
eruption. |
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The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. |
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
19 Mar through midday on 20 Mar. Periods of active conditions and G1
(Minor) storming are likely during the latter half of 20 Mar through 21
Mar due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs associated with the 17 Mar
filament eruption. |
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