Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Issued: 2021 Jan 18 0030 UTC

Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2796 (S21W32, Axx/Alpha) produced B-class activity during the period. New Region 2797 (S18E746, Hsx/Alpha) quietly rotated onto the SE limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a slight chance for C-class activity, on 18-20 Jan.

Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 18-19 Jan. Moderate to high levels are expected by 20 Jan due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained at nominal levels through the period. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased through the period from 305 km/s to end-of-period speeds near 275 km/s. Total field remained at and below 5 nT and the Bz component varied between +1 to -4 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately positive orientation.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced on 18 Jan. A negative polarity CH HSS extension off the southern crown is expected to move into a geoeffective position, creating enhancements in the solar wind parameters. Enhancements are expected to continue through 20 Jan with additional HSS activity from positive polarity CHs in the northern hemisphere.

Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels with active periods likely on 18-20 Jan due to CH HSS influence.
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