Space Weather Forecast Discussion
| Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center |
| Issued: 2023 Nov 29 1230 UTC |
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| Solar activity reached high levels with a M9.8 flare from AR 3500 at
28/1950 UTC, the highest of the period. Region 3500 (S09W02,
Dkc/beta-gamma) continued to be the largest, most complex region on the
disk, and the main culprit of activity producing a M3.4 flare at 28/1932
UTC along with the aforementioned M9 flare. Region 3505 (S17E63,
Hax/alpha) was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable.
Region 3499 (S17W65, Bxo/beta) added to the mix at the end of the
period, producing a C8.1 flare at 28/2331 UTC. New Regions 3506 (N15W19,
Bxo/beta) and 3507 (N10W79, Hsx/alpha) were numbered but remained
inactive. The CMEs from the 27th, mentioned in previous discussions, were modeled
and determined to have at least somewhat of an Earth-directed component
with arrivals first on 30 Nov, and then early on 01 Dec for the latter
two events. As for 28 Nov, Type II radio sweeps, associated with the
aforementioned M-class flares with estimated speeds of 340 and 854 km/s,
and 10 cm radio bursts (210 sfu and 720 sfu, respectively), were
reported by USAF observatories. Then, at approximately 28/2012 UTC
a full halo CME can ben seen in NASA C2 coronagraph imagery. Analysis
and modeling of this event determined an arrival time of early to midday
on 01 Dec. |
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| Solar wind parameters were at near nominal levels. Total field ranged
4-5 nT, the Bz component was +/- 4 nT, and solar wind speeds averaged at
or just under 450 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive. |
| Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to diminish on 28 Nov and
continue through the majority of 29 Nov. An enhancement from the 27 Nov
filament eruption will likely materialize late 29 Nov into early 30 Nov
providing glancing influences. An additional, further enhancements are
expected on 01 Dec with the arrival of the two CMEs from late on 27 Nov
and the 28 Nov halo CME. |
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| The geomagnetic field was quiet. |
| Primarily quiet conditions are expected early on 29 Nov, with active
levels expected to begin by late 29 Nov following the anticipated
arrival of the early 27 Nov CME. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is
likely, with a chance for an isolated G2 (Moderate) period, on 30 Nov as
CME effects continue. By 01 Dec, G2 (Moderate) conditions are likely
with the anticipated arrival of the late 27 Nov/ 28 Nov CMEs. |
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