Space Weather Forecast Discussion
| Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center |
| Issued: 2017 Oct 22 0030 UTC |
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| Solar activity declined back down to very low levels following the M1
flare (R1-Minor) observed late on 20 Oct from new Region 2685 (S11E74,
Hax/alpha). As of this writing, no additional spots were visible
rotating on the disk within this region. The CME signature associated
with the M1 flare was analyzed and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output
suggested no Earth impact. No additional CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery. |
| Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with C-class flares
likely including a slight chance for M-class flares over the next
three days (22-24 Oct) due to potential from Region 2685. |
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| The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 3,951 pfu observed at 21/1800 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at background values. |
| The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels for the next three days (22-24 Oct). |
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| Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested
the passage of an SSBC. Phi angle transitioned from a positive to a
negative orientation at about 20/0730 UTC. Total magnetic field strength
underwent a minor enhancement from 3-5 nT to a peak of 12 nT around
21/1330 UTC while the Bz component varied between +9 nT to -7 nT. Solar
wind speeds were mostly steady at about 370 km/s through about 21/1315
UTC when a gradual increase through periods end to near 500 km/s was
observed. |
| Solar wind parameters are likely to remained slightly enhanced through
midday on day one (22 Oct) due to weak, negative polarity CH HSS
effects. Enhancements are expected to slowly wane through day two (23
Oct) and continuing through midday on day three (24 Oct) as influence
from the CH HSS diminishes. By midday on 24 Oct, an SSBC from a negative
to a positive orientation is anticipated in advance of a large,
recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. |
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| The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. |
| Mostly quiet levels are expected through a majority of day one (22 Oct)
with a chance for unsettled to active levels early due to negative
polarity CH HSS effect. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to persist
on day two (23 Oct) through midday on day three (24 Oct) as CH HSS
effects wane. For the remainder of 24 Oct, unsettled to minor storm
levels (G1-Minor) are anticipated in response to an SSBC preceding a CIR
in advance of a large, recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. |
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