Space Weather Forecast Discussion
| Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center |
| Issued: 2019 Oct 22 0030 UTC |
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| Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available satellite imagery. |
| Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels on 22-24 Oct. |
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| The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal and the greater than 10
MeV proton flux was at background levels. |
| The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to
moderate on 22-24 Oct, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast
period. |
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| Solar wind parameters were at background levels under a nominal solar
wind regime. |
| Weak enhancements in the near-Earth solar wind environment are still
possible on 22 Oct due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Background solar wind conditions are expected on 23 Oct with the return
to a nominal solar wind regime. Late on 24 Oct, a CIR ahead of an
anticipated positive polarity CH HSS is expected to produce enhancements
in the solar wind environment that are expected to last beyond this
forecast period. |
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| The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled this period. |
| The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled levels, with
isolated active periods on 22 Oct with possible impacts from the
negative polarity CH HSS. Generally quiet conditions are expected to
prevail on 23 Oct with the return of a nominal solar wind regime. Late
on 24 Oct, a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to move into a
geoeffective position, increasing activity to mostly unsettled to active
levels, with isolated G1 (minor) storm periods. |
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