Space Weather Forecast Discussion
| Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center |
| Issued: 2021 Apr 22 1230 UTC |
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| Solar activity was low. Region 2816 (S24W12, Cai/beta) produced multiple
C-class flares including, a C3/1f flare at 22/0435 UTC. This flare was
associated with Type II and Type IV radio sweeps. Region 2817 (N18W86,
Dao/beta) produced several C-class flares including the largest event of
the period, a C4 flare at 22/0921 UTC. Spot analysis was difficult for
this region due to its proximity to the west limb. Region 2818 (S17E32,
Hsx/alpha) was stable, lacking any significant flare activity. Analysis
is ongoing to determine if any of these events contain an Earth-directed
component. Of particular interest is the C3/1f flare from Region 2816
due to its center disk location and observed radio signatures. |
| Solar activity is likely to be low, with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-Minor) flares on 22-23 Apr. |
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| The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 12,700 pfu observed at 21/1455 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was steady at background levels. |
| The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
throughout the remainder of the forecast period (22-24 Apr). The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels. |
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| The solar wind environment returned to near background conditions. Wind
speed began the period near 650 km/s and gradually decreased to end the
period below 420 km/s. Total field peaked at 6 nT. Bz dropped as low as
-4 nT. Phi angle was variable. |
| Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at near background
conditions until late on 23 Apr when negative-polarity CH HSS influence
prevails. |
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| The geomagnetic field was quiet. |
| The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the remainder
of 22 Apr. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 23-24 Apr due to
anticipated coronal hole activity. |
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