Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Issued: 2017 Oct 22 0030 UTC

Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity declined back down to very low levels following the M1 flare (R1-Minor) observed late on 20 Oct from new Region 2685 (S11E74, Hax/alpha). As of this writing, no additional spots were visible rotating on the disk within this region. The CME signature associated with the M1 flare was analyzed and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output suggested no Earth impact. No additional CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with C-class flares likely including a slight chance for M-class flares over the next three days (22-24 Oct) due to potential from Region 2685.

Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 3,951 pfu observed at 21/1800 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the next three days (22-24 Oct).

Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested the passage of an SSBC. Phi angle transitioned from a positive to a negative orientation at about 20/0730 UTC. Total magnetic field strength underwent a minor enhancement from 3-5 nT to a peak of 12 nT around 21/1330 UTC while the Bz component varied between +9 nT to -7 nT. Solar wind speeds were mostly steady at about 370 km/s through about 21/1315 UTC when a gradual increase through periods end to near 500 km/s was observed.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are likely to remained slightly enhanced through midday on day one (22 Oct) due to weak, negative polarity CH HSS effects. Enhancements are expected to slowly wane through day two (23 Oct) and continuing through midday on day three (24 Oct) as influence from the CH HSS diminishes. By midday on 24 Oct, an SSBC from a negative to a positive orientation is anticipated in advance of a large, recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast...
Mostly quiet levels are expected through a majority of day one (22 Oct) with a chance for unsettled to active levels early due to negative polarity CH HSS effect. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to persist on day two (23 Oct) through midday on day three (24 Oct) as CH HSS effects wane. For the remainder of 24 Oct, unsettled to minor storm levels (G1-Minor) are anticipated in response to an SSBC preceding a CIR in advance of a large, recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.
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