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000
FXUS66 KSTO 081113
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
313 AM PST Sun Dec 8 2019


.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering rain and mountain snow showers remain in the forecast
today, with drier weather returning late this evening. High
pressure builds over the region on Monday, which will lead to a
period of dry conditions and near average temperatures. More
widespread precipitation could return late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Lingering rain and mountain snow showers are being observed on
radar this morning. These conditions will continue as the upper
low gradually exits the region. For the mountains, an extra 2-5
inches of snow will be possible for elevations above 5500ft. The
Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through 1PM, but if showers
start to dwindle earlier, we may be able to cancel it prior to
then. For those traveling in the Sierra, be prepared for reduced
visibilities, possible chain controls, and travel delays.
Rainwise, the Valley and foothills will see an additional 0.0-0.50
inches of precip, locally higher where stronger showers and
thunderstorms roll through. Once the low exits the region, high
pressure and drier weather returns to interior NorCal. Fog looks
to be quite possible later this evening and into the overnight
hours. Light north winds may hinder fog growth in some areas, but
with the residual moisture from the rain and clearing skies, fog
seems likely.

For the start of the work week, look for partly to mostly sunny
skies and near average temperatures. A rather weak shortwave
enters the picture late Tuesday into Wednesday morning bringing a
slight chance for showers up toward Shasta County and the far
northern sections of the Coastal Range. Otherwise, expect clouds
to be plentiful given the trough passage. KR/BRO

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)...

Ensemble guidance continues indicate zonal flow across the eastern
Pacific later in the week with ridging across NorCal. The pattern
will bring the potential for light warm-advection precipitation
across the northern mountains. By next weekend, models are showing
a shortwave trough moving into the PacNW. Both the ECMWF ensemble
and the GEFS have trended deeper with this system. Thus, precip
chances could extend further south into the northern Sierra. Temps
will be slightly above average.

&&
&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread MVFR, with local IFR, in scattered showers through 18Z
with conditions improving from the north as Pacific storm system
gradually moves to the southeast. Isolated thunderstorms southeast
of KSAC after 20Z. Local southerly surface wind gusts to 15-25
kts thru 18Z. Snow levels 5500-6500 ft.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM PST this afternoon for West
Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

&&

$$




Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Sacramento, CA (STO) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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