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Forecast Discussion for Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 212215
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
315 PM PDT Fri Sep 21 2018


.SYNOPSIS...
A slight cooling trend through the weekend with locally gusty
winds over the Sierra. Warming above normal next week with breezy
north winds and drying on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper trough moving east from the Pacific accross the Northwest
states through the weekend will brush just close enough to NorCal
to bring slightly cooler temperatures and gusty southwest Sierra
winds. High temperatures will cool from the low 90`s into the mid-
upper 80`s by Sunday. Local elevated fire weather concerns will be
possible over the higher elevations of the Sierra Saturday
afternoon with local wind gusts to 35 mph. A more significant fire
concern will be possible Sunday night and Monday, as north wind
gusts to 25 mph develop over the Sacramento valley with east to
northeast downslope winds to 25 mph over the Sierra.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)
The highly amplified ridge over the eastern Pacific will likely
build into California on Tuesday, with strong subsidence remaining
over Northern CA through midweek. NAEFS ensemble analysis
suggests this system will bring warmer than normal temperatures,
but isn`t particularly anomalous for this time of year. Current
blended guidance suggests temperatures will be in the 90s across
the Valley Tuesday through Thursday, with 70s to 80s over the
mountains.

The closed upper low associated with this Rex Block will very
slowly approach the West Coast. Current guidance suggests that
this low will move inland late next week...but model performance
of these closed lows is notoriously poor in the medium-range.

Dang

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours, except local MVFR
conditions due to smoke near the Delta Fire in Shasta County.
Winds will remain below 10 kt across Valley TAF sites. Local gusts
up to 20 kt near the Delta this afternoon and tonight.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Sacramento, CA (STO) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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