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000
FXUS66 KSTO 191727
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
927 AM PST Mon Nov 19 2018


.SYNOPSIS...
Dry with near to above normal daytime temperatures and cool
nights through Tuesday with smoke in the valley due to the Camp
Wildfire. Cooler and wetter weather is expected by midweek and
for the holiday weekend. Snow over the higher elevations of the
Sierra for possible travel difficulties during Thanksgiving travel
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another quiet day is expected as high pressure holds over the
region. This will lead to another day of hazy and smokey skies as
winds will remain light. The good news is that these conditions
will begin to mix out on Tuesday as high pressure shifts to the
east due to a trough digging towards the West Coast. Conditions
will remain mostly dry throughout the day on Tuesday, with rain
arriving to the coastal mountains Tuesday night. Rain will then
spread eastwards arriving to the Valley and Sierra by Wednesday
morning. Snow levels will gradually be decreasing during this time
frame and will fall to pass level by late afternoon or early
evening hours. For those commuting over the Sierra Wednesday
evening, accumulating snow is looking likely for the passes.

Thanksgiving Day will be another wet day, as Wendesday`s system
exits the region and a second trough pushes into the region.
Models show a lull between each system; however, the chance for
rain and accumulating snow at high elevation passes will be possible
throughout the day. Winds with the second system will stronger
than the first, especially over the ridges. This combined with
snow, could lead to white out conditions at times.

Thinking about fire weather concerns, the good news with this
event is that it will have enough rain to end new wildfire
concerns. The bad news is it will be the start of watching for
debris flows over the recent fires.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)

Potentially stronger system moves through the region Friday.
Periods of moderate to heavy precipitation are expected. This
will likely cause local ponding on roads with clogged storm
drains. Commuters or Thanksgiving holiday travelers should allow
extra time for driving. Less unsettled weather is expected over
the weekend into early next week.

Newly burned areas will likely see ash flow. The major question
is whether rain intensity could reach levels sufficient to cause
more hazardous debris flows. While rain amounts should be
significant, this system may lack enough convective aspect to
bring heavy enough rain. Uncertainty is high now, but the
potential should become as we get closer to the event.

Storm total rainfall amounts Friday thru early Saturday could
range up to 1 inch in the Valley with 1-2 inches in the foothills
and mountains. Accumulating snowfall could be significant across
the higher elevations with 12 to 18 inches possible across the
northern Sierra passes, so plan ahead for wintry driving
conditions in the mountains and possible travel delays.
&&

.AVIATION...


Widespread MVFR with local IFR likely to continue in the Central
Valley the next 24 hours as smoke from the Camp Fire persists. VFR
conditions elsewhere. Generally light winds at TAF sites. High
clouds are moving northeast across TAF sites this afternoon.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Sacramento, CA (STO) Office Forecast Discussions.
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