000
FXUS66 KSTO 270856
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
156 AM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.Synopsis...
Chances for light mountain precipitation today but otherwise, dry
and mild weather with breezy winds expected through early next
week.

&&

Friday`s active weather has petered out yesterday evening with
quiet conditions in store over the next several days. Latest
24-hour storm total reports show highest accumulations occurred
over the northeast foothills and Sierra with Jarbo Gap and Blue
Canyon reported just over an inch of liquid precipitation.

The forecast transitions into a warmer and milder pattern as
ridging slides over Northern CA today. This will be a progressive
ridge sliding to our east with a weak shortwave moving over the
Sierra behind it. This may result in some very light precipitation
over the mountains today but will not result in any impactful
accumulations if anything does develop. Looking to early next
week, an upper-level low in the Pacific NW sliding eastward and an
upper-level high in the Pacific will keep us in a dry pattern and
see temperatures near normal to slightly above. However, this
will bring some breezy wind gusts (15-25 MPH) Monday and Tuesday,
strongest late each morning. Otherwise, this should be a mild next
few days with lovely weather leading into May! Afternoon highs
today will be in the mid 70s, warming to mid to upper 70s by
Tuesday.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)...

Uncertainty persists in the extended forecast for the second half
of next week as significant disagreement remains between ensemble
members on what our upper level pattern will look like. Cluster
analysis suggests around a 50/50 split among members of ridging vs
a trough over the area. The deterministic NBM is favoring a dry
and warmer pattern, however there`s still around 10 degrees or
more of spread on potential high temperatures.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will predominate next 24 hours except areas of MVFR
possible vicinity showers northern mountains and northern Sierra
after 21Z as another weather system moves through. Surface wind
gusts generally less than 12 kts.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$