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000
FXUS66 KSTO 232102
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
202 PM PDT Sat Mar 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will diminish this evening.
Dry Sunday, followed by more rain and mountain snow Monday into
early Tuesday. A stronger storm is possible Tuesday night through
Wednesday. Thunderstorms will be possible with each of the storms
Tuesday and Wednesday. Unsettled weather will continue Thursday
and Friday with possible showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Short term will be monitoring for thunderstorm development mainly
over the valley but some might be able to make it into the
foothills this afternoon into the early evening hours when the
activity is expected to die down. Thunderstorms will likely
contain very heavy rainfall and small hail.

The current system will continue to spread east tonight leading
to dry conditions for Sunday. The next systems timing is in
question at this time. The GFS is faster in spreading the rain
over the interior and to the southern areas than the slower NAM
model. The Winter Storm Watch is based on the faster timing so
adjustments may end up happening if the NAM wins out. The storm
will be cold enough to bring more snow to the western slopes with
possible travel problems. Unstable air over the valley may lead to
thunderstorms on Tuesday. The second system will be moving into
the region Tuesday night but there may be some enhancement ahead
of the main part of the storm as it begins to interact with left
over moisture from the first storm. This second storm will be the
bigger of the two storms.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)



Little change to the forecast this afternoon. A Pacific storm
will begin to spread widespread rain, mountain snow, and gusty
winds over the CWA Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. As the
front moves through on Wednesday, there will be chances for post-
frontal convection as shear, CAPE, total-totals, and LIs look
favorable. This set up could be conducive for strong thunderstorms
during this time frame, thus we`ll have to keep an eye on the
forecast in the coming days. As we head into Wednesday night and
Thursday, additional vort maxes and cyclonic flow will keep
showers in the forecast.

Beyond Thursday, chances for precipitation will be diminishing
as ridging builds over the eastern Pacific extends into Northern
California.
&&

.AVIATION...

The forecast remains on track this afternoon as isolated showers
and thunderstorms remain possible through 0Z for areas north of
KSMF. Beyond then, skies will continue to clear as a weak area of
high pressure builds over the region. Light winds, lingering
moisture, and clear skies could promote fog development tonight.
As a result, I have opted to put some MVFR visibilities in for
TAF sites at KSMF and southwards. If fog doesn`t develop, expect
VFR conditions tonight and tomorrow.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night
for Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning
for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada.

&&

$$




Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Sacramento, CA (STO) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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