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000
FXUS66 KSTO 160930
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
230 AM PDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Not as hot today and Friday, then hotter weather returns for the
weekend. A few late day thunderstorms are expected along the
Sierra crest the next several days. Keep an eye to the sky if in
the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies cover the region early this morning. Remnant clouds
from Wednesday afternoon`s thunderstorms over the northern Sierra
Nevada is moving east across Nevada while IR difference imagery is
showing extensive stratus along the coast extending well inland,
and now spreading through the Carquinez Strait. Coastal profiler
data indicate the marine layer has deepened to around 2k ft, and
there`s a chance a little stratus will make it inland into the
Sacramento region around sunrise.

Stronger short-wave trough currently approaching the PacNW will
begin to lower heights aloft, and thickness, today across NorCal
leading to a few degrees of synoptic cooling. The feature will
also induce stronger onshore flow by this afternoon which will
result in several more degrees of cooling to portions of the
Central Valley and foothills. Onshore flow will continue on Friday
with a few more degrees of cooling expected across the area.

Another round of isolated late day deep convection is expected
across the northern Sierra today, possibly extending about as far
north as the Mt. Lassen area. Weak westerly flow aloft will likely
keep storms near and east of the Sierra crest. Storms are forecast
to be retreat to areas mainly south of Lake Tahoe on Friday.

Hotter weather returns over the weekend as high pressure builds
northwestward from the Desert Southwest. This will likely suppress
the marine layer, but not completely wipe it out. Most of the
Central Valley will see highs near or above the century mark,
especially the northern Sacramento Valley where moderate heat risk
will return. Isolated late day deep convection will likely be
limited to the far southeast corner of the forecast area over the
Sierra Nevada to the south of Lake Tahoe.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)...
Current ensemble runs indicate the Four Corners high pressure
will shift east out of California Monday and Tuesday as a weak
upper level low approaches from the eastern Pacific. Temperatures
will begin the week hot, especially in the northern Sacramento
Valley, before slowly cooling each day to near or slightly below
normal by Wednesday as the upper low makes its way onshore. The
chance of high elevation Sierra thunderstorms is weakening as
guidance moves the monsoon high further to the east than previous
runs. However, current models indicate there may still be enough
moisture and instability for isolated thunderstorms Monday and
Tuesday afternoon. HEC

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected except for stratus intrusion into
Carquinez Strait thru 18z Thursday. Local southwest winds 15-25
kts with gusts up to 25-35 kts through the Carquinez Strait and
Delta. Elsewhere winds generally less than 10 kts, increasing
after 00z Friday up to 15 kt in the Sacramento Valley. Thin smoke
layer from the Mineral wildfire west of Coalinga, CA remains
possible across the northern San Joaquin/southern Sacramento
Valley.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$




Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Sacramento, CA (STO) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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