Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2018 Sep 22 0001 UTC - Read More
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=5 Storm!
Kp=5 Storm!
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 2-hr max
A1.26 - Normal
A0.79 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
B1.9 - Normal 2018-08-25
A0.18 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
7.99 protons/cm3
368 km/sec - Calm
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
9.13 (Bt) Moderate
0.352 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Sep, 23 Sep, 24 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 376 km/s at 21/1651Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 21/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/2057Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10457 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Sep), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (23 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Sep).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2018 Sep 22 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 22-Sep 24 2018 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 22 to Sep 24 2018
Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep 24
Forecast High  
5 G1
5 G1
4
00-03UT 4 3 4
03-06UT 3 3 4
06-09UT 5 G1 3 3
09-12UT 4 3 3
12-15UT 2 3 2
15-18UT 1 4 2
18-21UT 2 4 2
21-00UT 3 5 G1 3
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
5 G1
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Sep 22 to Sep 24
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 25% 35% 30%
Minor Storm 10% 25% 10%
Major-severe storm 1% 5% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 10% 15%
Minor Storm 30% 30% 25%
Major-severe storm 40% 55% 40%

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are expected on days one and two (22 Sep) due to influence form a positive polarity CH HSS.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 22 to Sep 24 2018
Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep 24
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 22 to Sep 24 2018
Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep 24
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2018 Sep 17 0146 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2018 Sep 17 69 16 4
2018 Sep 18 69 8 3
2018 Sep 19 68 5 2
2018 Sep 20 68 5 2
2018 Sep 21 68 5 2
2018 Sep 22 68 5 2
2018 Sep 23 68 16 4
2018 Sep 24 68 12 3
2018 Sep 25 68 5 2
2018 Sep 26 68 5 2
2018 Sep 27 69 5 2
2018 Sep 28 69 5 2
2018 Sep 29 69 5 2
2018 Sep 30 69 5 2
2018 Oct 01 69 8 3
2018 Oct 02 70 10 4
2018 Oct 03 70 5 2
2018 Oct 04 70 5 2
2018 Oct 05 70 5 2
2018 Oct 06 70 5 2
2018 Oct 07 70 20 5 G1
2018 Oct 08 70 30 6 G2
2018 Oct 09 70 10 3
2018 Oct 10 69 18 5 G1
2018 Oct 11 69 15 4
2018 Oct 12 69 8 3



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A0.18 67 8 5 G1

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 368 km/sec 7.99 p/cm3 Bt 9.13 nT Bz -4.26 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 2025 UTC - 21 Sep 2018 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (0)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Irregular Galaxy NGC 55
Irregular Galaxy NGC 55
2018 September 21

Explanation: Irregular galaxy NGC 55 is thought to be similar to the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). But while the LMC is about 180,000 light-years away and is a well known satellite of our own Milky Way Galaxy, NGC 55 is more like 6 million light-years distant and is a member of the Sculptor Galaxy Group. Classified as an irregular galaxy, in deep exposures the LMC itself resembles a barred disk galaxy. Spanning about 50,000 light-years, NGC 55 is seen nearly edge-on though, presenting a flattened, narrow profile in contrast with our face-on view of the LMC. Just as large star forming regions create emission nebulae in the LMC, NGC 55 is also seen to be producing new stars. This highly detailed galaxy portrait highlights a bright core crossed with dust clouds, telltale pinkish star forming regions, and young blue star clusters in NGC 55.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: equinox -1
Credit & Copyright: Martin Pugh
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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