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Severe Wx Summary! | ||||||||
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Wed, Nov. 29, 2023-1:51:49pm
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Wed, Nov 29, 2023 - 1:51pm |
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2023 |
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 27/2340Z from Region 3503 (N15E31). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. |
IB. Solar Activity Forecast Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec). |
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 28/1809Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 27/2305Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 180 pfu. |
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Nov), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (30 Nov) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (01 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec). |

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2023 Nov 29 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 29-Dec 01 2023 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2).
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Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) or greater geomagnetic storms are likely on 30 Nov and 01 Dec due to influences from multiple CMEs.
Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
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Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms all three days mainly due to the potential from Region 3500.
Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 28 2023 1950 UTC.
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Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts all three days.
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Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2023 Nov 27 0200 UTC
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Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). | Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. |

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Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10. |

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The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere. |

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This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression | F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression |
- Solar Cycles Highcharts
The Solar Cycle forecast comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and the International Space Environmental Services (ISES). This amounts to the ‘official’ forecast for the solar cycle. The Prediction Panel forecasts the sunspot number expected for solar maximum and has predicted Cycle 25 to reach a maximum of 115 occurring in July, 2025. The error bars on this prediction mean the panel expects the cycle maximum could be between 105-125 with the peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026.

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The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere. The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause. |


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Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach. |
Source: Space Weather.com |

A Landspout Tornado over Kansas | |||
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2023 November 29 |
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Explanation: Could there be a tornado inside another tornado? In general, no. OK, but could there be a tornado inside a wider dust devil? No again, for one reason because tornados comes down from the sky, but dust devils rise up from the ground. What is pictured is a landspout, an unusual type of tornado known to occur on the edge of a violent thunderstorm. The featured landspout was imaged and identified in Kansas, USA, in June 2019 by an experienced storm chaser. The real tornado is in the center, and the outer sheath was possibly created by large dust particles thrown out from the central tornado. So far, the only planet known to create tornados is Earth, although tornado-like activity has been found on the Sun and dust devils are common on Mars. |
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High Resolution Image | |||
Tomorrow’s Image: Flight Day 13 | |||
Credit & Copyright: Brad Hannon | |||
Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day |
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of: NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).
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