Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alart ) - Issue Time: 2017 Oct 21 1612 UTC - Read More
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=3 - Quiet
Kp=2 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alart 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alart 2-hr max
B3.30 - Normal
A8.15 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alart
M1.1 Class Flare 2017-10-20
A7.65 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
4.07 protons/cm3
437km/s Slightly Elevated
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
6.82 (Bt) - Normal
0.386 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 20/2328Z from Region 2685 (S10E85). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 485 km/s at 21/2040Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 21/1325Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 21/1215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3951 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Oct), quiet levels on day two (23 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (24 Oct).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2017 Oct 22 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 22-Oct 24 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 22 to Oct 24 2017
Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24
Forecast High  
4
2
5 G1
00-03UT 4 2 2
03-06UT 3 1 2
06-09UT 2 2 2
09-12UT 2 1 2
12-15UT 1 1 3
15-18UT 2 1 3
18-21UT 2 1 4
21-00UT 2 2 5 G1
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
2
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Oct 22 to Oct 24
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 10% 30%
Minor Storm 5% 1% 10%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 30% 20% 30%
Major-severe storm 25% 10% 45%

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely late on day three (24 Oct) due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 22 to Oct 24 2017
Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 22 to Oct 24 2017
Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24
R1-R2 20% 20% 20%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over the next three days (22-24 Oct) due to flare potential from Region 2685.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2017 Oct 16 0358 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2017 Oct 16 70 18 4
2017 Oct 17 70 10 3
2017 Oct 18 70 12 4
2017 Oct 19 72 12 4
2017 Oct 20 72 8 3
2017 Oct 21 72 8 3
2017 Oct 22 72 8 3
2017 Oct 23 72 5 2
2017 Oct 24 72 35 5 G1
2017 Oct 25 72 45 6 G2
2017 Oct 26 72 15 4
2017 Oct 27 72 15 4
2017 Oct 28 72 10 3
2017 Oct 29 72 8 3
2017 Oct 30 72 5 2
2017 Oct 31 72 5 2
2017 Nov 01 72 8 3
2017 Nov 02 72 10 3
2017 Nov 03 70 5 2
2017 Nov 04 70 5 2
2017 Nov 05 70 5 2
2017 Nov 06 70 5 2
2017 Nov 07 70 28 5 G1
2017 Nov 08 70 30 5 G1
2017 Nov 09 70 40 5 G1
2017 Nov 10 70 28 6 G2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A7.65 77 10 2

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 437 km/sec 4.07 p/cm3 Bt 6.82 nT Bz 3.17 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 0225 UTC - 22 Oct 2017 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (11)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Two Black Holes Dancing in 3C 75
Two Black Holes Dancing in 3C 75
2017 October 22

Explanation: What's happening at the center of active galaxy 3C 75? The two bright sources at the center of this composite x-ray (blue)/ radio (pink) image are co-orbiting supermassive black holes powering the giant radio source 3C 75. Surrounded by multimillion degree x-ray emitting gas, and blasting out jets of relativistic particles the supermassive black holes are separated by 25,000 light-years. At the cores of two merging galaxies in the Abell 400 galaxy cluster they are some 300 million light-years away. Astronomers conclude that these two supermassive black holes are bound together by gravity in a binary system in part because the jets' consistent swept back appearance is most likely due to their common motion as they speed through the hot cluster gas at 1200 kilometers per second. Such spectacular cosmic mergers are thought to be common in crowded galaxy cluster environments in the distant universe. In their final stages the mergers are expected to be intense sources of gravitational waves.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: rosetta stone galaxy
Credit : X-Ray: NASA/CXC/D. Hudson, T. Reiprich et al. (AIfA); Radio: NRAO/VLA/ NRL
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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