Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2020 Jul 14 1445 UTC - Read More
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=2 - Quiet
Kp=2 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 2-hr max
A8.43 - Normal
A7.72 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
Standby - New Event
A0.10 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
5.73 protons/cm3
405km/s Slightly Elevated
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
3.72 (Bt) - Normal
Missing Data




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 15/1551Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 15/1203Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/1338Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 186 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2020 Jul 16 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 16-Jul 18 2020 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 16 to Jul 18 2020
Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul 18
Forecast High  
2
2
2
00-03UT 0 2 2
03-06UT 0 1 1
06-09UT 0 1 1
09-12UT 2 1 1
12-15UT 1 1 1
15-18UT 1 1 1
18-21UT 2 2 2
21-00UT 2 2 2
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
2
1
0
0
0
0
2
2
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Jul 16 to Jul 18
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 5% 5% 5%
Minor Storm 1% 1% 1%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 15% 15% 15%
Major-severe storm 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 16 to Jul 18 2020
Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul 18
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 16 to Jul 18 2020
Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul 18
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2020 Jul 13 0246 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2020 Jul 13 68 8 3
2020 Jul 14 68 12 4
2020 Jul 15 68 8 3
2020 Jul 16 68 5 2
2020 Jul 17 68 5 2
2020 Jul 18 68 5 2
2020 Jul 19 68 5 2
2020 Jul 20 68 5 2
2020 Jul 21 68 5 2
2020 Jul 22 68 5 2
2020 Jul 23 68 5 2
2020 Jul 24 68 5 2
2020 Jul 25 69 5 2
2020 Jul 26 69 5 2
2020 Jul 27 69 5 2
2020 Jul 28 69 5 2
2020 Jul 29 69 5 2
2020 Jul 30 69 5 2
2020 Jul 31 69 8 3
2020 Aug 01 69 10 3
2020 Aug 02 68 5 2
2020 Aug 03 68 5 2
2020 Aug 04 68 5 2
2020 Aug 05 68 5 2
2020 Aug 06 68 5 2
2020 Aug 07 68 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A0.10 68 5 2

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 405 km/sec 5.73 p/cm3 Bt 3.72 nT Bz -1.04 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 1425 UTC - 16 Jul 2020 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (0)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


The Long Tails of Comet NEOWISE
The Long Tails of Comet NEOWISE
2020 July 16

Explanation: This Comet NEOWISE (C/2020 F3) now sweeps through our fair planet's northern skies. Its long tails stretch across this deep skyview from Suchy Vrch, Czech Republic. Recorded on the night of July 13/14, the composite of untracked foreground and tracked and filtered sky exposures teases out details in the comet's tail not visible to the unaided eye. Faint structures extend to the top of the frame, over 20 degrees from the comet's bright coma. Pushed out by the pressure of sunlight itself, the broad curve of the comet's yellowish dust tail is easy to see by eye. But the fainter, more bluish tail is separate from the reflective comet dust. The fainter tail is an ion tail, formed as ions from the cometary coma are dragged outward by magnetic fields in the solar wind and fluoresce in the sunlight. Outbound NEOWISE is climbing higher in northern evening skies, coming closest to Earth on July 23rd.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: tales in space
Credit & Copyright: Petr Horalek
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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