Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2019 Jan 11 0859 UTC - Read More
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=2 - Quiet
Kp=2 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 2-hr max
A2.17 - Normal
A2.17 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
B1.6 - Normal 2019-01-06
A1.03 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
5.98 protons/cm3
457km/s Slightly Elevated
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
4.39 (Bt) - Normal
0.439 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 17/2014Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 17/1340Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 17/1408Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2019 Jan 18 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 18-Jan 20 2019 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 18 to Jan 20 2019
Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20
Forecast High  
2
2
2
00-03UT 2 2 2
03-06UT 2 1 1
06-09UT 1 1 1
09-12UT 2 1 1
12-15UT 1 1 1
15-18UT 1 1 1
18-21UT 2 2 2
21-00UT 2 2 2
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
1
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Jan 18 to Jan 20
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 10% 10% 10%
Minor Storm 5% 1% 1%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 25% 20% 20%
Major-severe storm 20% 10% 10%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 18 to Jan 20 2019
Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 18 to Jan 20 2019
Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2019 Jan 14 0403 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2019 Jan 14 69 5 2
2019 Jan 15 69 8 3
2019 Jan 16 69 8 3
2019 Jan 17 69 5 2
2019 Jan 18 70 5 2
2019 Jan 19 70 5 2
2019 Jan 20 71 5 2
2019 Jan 21 71 5 2
2019 Jan 22 71 5 2
2019 Jan 23 71 5 2
2019 Jan 24 71 20 5 G1
2019 Jan 25 71 12 4
2019 Jan 26 71 8 3
2019 Jan 27 71 5 2
2019 Jan 28 71 5 2
2019 Jan 29 71 5 2
2019 Jan 30 71 5 2
2019 Jan 31 71 10 3
2019 Feb 01 71 15 4
2019 Feb 02 70 12 4
2019 Feb 03 70 8 3
2019 Feb 04 70 5 2
2019 Feb 05 69 5 2
2019 Feb 06 69 5 2
2019 Feb 07 69 5 2
2019 Feb 08 69 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A1.03 69 7 2

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 457 km/sec 5.98 p/cm3 Bt 4.39 nT Bz -1.05 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 0825 UTC - 18 Jan 2019 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (0)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Circumpolar Star Trails
Circumpolar Star Trails
2019 January 18

Explanation: As Earth spins on its axis, the stars appear to rotate around an observatory in this well-composed image from the Canary Island of Tenerife. Of course, the colorful concentric arcs traced out by the stars are really centered on the planet's North Celestial Pole. Convenient for northern hemisphere astro-imagers and celestial navigators alike, bright star Polaris is near the pole and positioned in this scene to be behind the telescope dome. Made with a camera fixed to a tripod, the series of over 200 stacked digital exposures spanned about 4 hours. The observatory was not operating on that clear, dark night, but that's not surprising. The dome houses the Teide Observatory's large THEMIS Solar Telescope.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: light-weekend
Credit & Copyright: Gabriel Funes
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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