Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2018 May 23 0740 UTC - Read More
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=1 - Quiet
Kp=1 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 2-hr max
B3.80 - Normal
A6.20 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
B1.1 - Normal 2018-05-26
A4.92 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
4.09 protons/cm3
323 km/sec - Calm
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
2.51 (Bt) - Normal
0.580 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 May, 27 May, 28 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s at 24/2211Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 197 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (26 May, 27 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 May).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2018 May 26 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 26-May 28 2018 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 26 to May 28 2018
May 26 May 27 May 28
Forecast High  
2
2
3
00-03UT 1 2 2
03-06UT 1 1 3
06-09UT 1 1 2
09-12UT 2 1 2
12-15UT 2 1 2
15-18UT 1 2 2
18-21UT 1 2 2
21-00UT 2 2 3
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - May 26 to May 28
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 5% 5% 15%
Minor Storm 1% 1% 5%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 15% 15% 25%
Major-severe storm 5% 5% 25%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 26 to May 28 2018
May 26 May 27 May 28
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 26 to May 28 2018
May 26 May 27 May 28
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2018 May 21 0042 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2018 May 21 69 5 2
2018 May 22 69 5 2
2018 May 23 69 15 4
2018 May 24 69 10 3
2018 May 25 70 8 3
2018 May 26 70 5 2
2018 May 27 70 5 2
2018 May 28 70 5 2
2018 May 29 70 5 2
2018 May 30 70 5 2
2018 May 31 70 5 2
2018 Jun 01 70 18 5 G1
2018 Jun 02 70 28 6 G2
2018 Jun 03 70 16 4
2018 Jun 04 70 16 4
2018 Jun 05 70 14 4
2018 Jun 06 70 12 3
2018 Jun 07 68 8 3
2018 Jun 08 68 5 2
2018 Jun 09 68 5 2
2018 Jun 10 68 5 2
2018 Jun 11 68 5 2
2018 Jun 12 68 5 2
2018 Jun 13 68 8 3
2018 Jun 14 68 5 2
2018 Jun 15 68 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A4.92 76 3 1

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 323 km/sec 4.09 p/cm3 Bt 2.51 nT Bz -0.20 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 0825 UTC - 26 May 2018 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (32)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Titan: Moon over Saturn
Titan: Moon over Saturn
2018 May 26

Explanation: Like Earth's moon, Saturn's largest moon Titan is locked in synchronous rotation. This mosiac of images recorded by the Cassini spacecraft in May of 2012 show's its anti-Saturn side, the side always facing away from the ringed gas giant. The only moon in the solar system with a dense atmosphere, Titan is the only solar system world besides Earth known to have standing bodies of liquid on its surface and an earthlike cycle of liquid rain and evaporation. Its high altitude layer of atmospheric haze is evident in the Cassini view of the 5,000 kilometer diameter moon over Saturn's rings and cloud tops. Near center is the dark dune-filled region known as Shangri-La. The Cassini-delivered Huygens probe rests below and left of center, after the most distant landing for a spacecraft from Earth.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: coronal rain
Credit : NASA, JPL-Caltech, Space Science Institute
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

powered by Cumulus v1.9.3 (1059)
Ambient Weather VWS v14.00
Top Contact Website Map Copyright © 2007 - 2018 Foresthillweather.com Never base important decisions on this or any weather information obtained from the Internet