Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2023 Nov 29 1756 UTC - Read More
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp= 2.00 - Quiet
Kp= 2.00 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 6-hr max
C8.11 - Active
C2.88 - Active
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
C1.9-Active 2023-11-29
C1.15 - Active
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
1.57 protons/cm3
386 km/sec - Calm
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
4.33 (Bt) - Normal
0.31 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 27/2340Z from Region 3503 (N15E31). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 28/1809Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 27/2305Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 180 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Nov), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (30 Nov) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (01 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2023 Nov 29 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 29-Dec 01 2023 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 29 to Dec 01 2023
Nov 29 Nov 30 Dec 01
Forecast High  
4.00
5.33 G1
5.67 G2
00-03UT 1.00 5.00 G1 5.00 G1
03-06UT 2.00 5.33 G1 5.67 G2
06-09UT 2.00 4.67 G1 5.00 G1
09-12UT 1.33 4.00 4.33
12-15UT 2.00 3.33 4.00
15-18UT 2.33 3.00 3.00
18-21UT 2.67 3.33 3.33
21-00UT 4.00 3.67 3.67
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
1.67
1.00
2.00
2.00
1.33
1.67
1.00
2.00
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Nov 29 to Dec 1
Middle Latitudes Nov 29 Nov 30 Dec 01
Active 20% 35% 30%
Minor Storm 5% 25% 30%
Major-severe storm 1% 5% 15%
High Latitudes Nov 29 Nov 30 Dec 01
Active 15% 10% 10%
Minor Storm 20% 20% 20%
Major-severe storm 20% 45% 50%

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) or greater geomagnetic storms are likely on 30 Nov and 01 Dec due to influences from multiple CMEs.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 29 to Dec 01 2023
Nov 29 Nov 30 Dec 01
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms all three days mainly due to the potential from Region 3500.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 28 2023 1950 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 29 to Dec 01 2023
Nov 29 Nov 30 Dec 01
Class: C-flare 95% 95% 95%
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
PCAF Updated: Wednesday, 29 Nov 2023 UTC
Polar Cap Absorption FCST green

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts all three days.

Region Flare Probabilities for Nov 29, 2023
Region Class C M X P
3490 5% 1% 1% 1%
3492 20% 5% 1% 1%
3493 10% 1% 1% 1%
3494 5% 1% 1% 1%
3499 10% 1% 1% 1%
3500 70% 25% 5% 5%
3501 5% 1% 1% 1%
3502 20% 1% 1% 1%
3503 10% 1% 1% 1%
3505 10% 1% 1% 1%


3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2023 Nov 27 0200 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2023 Nov 27 180 10 4
2023 Nov 28 180 8 3
2023 Nov 29 175 5 2
2023 Nov 30 175 5 2
2023 Dec 01 170 5 2
2023 Dec 02 165 5 2
2023 Dec 03 160 5 2
2023 Dec 04 150 10 4
2023 Dec 05 145 16 5 G1
2023 Dec 06 140 12 4
2023 Dec 07 140 10 4
2023 Dec 08 140 5 2
2023 Dec 09 145 5 2
2023 Dec 10 145 5 2
2023 Dec 11 140 5 2
2023 Dec 12 140 10 4
2023 Dec 13 140 8 3
2023 Dec 14 140 5 2
2023 Dec 15 140 5 2
2023 Dec 16 140 5 2
2023 Dec 17 150 5 2
2023 Dec 18 160 15 4
2023 Dec 19 160 25 5 G1
2023 Dec 20 160 8 3
2023 Dec 21 160 5 2
2023 Dec 22 160 20 5 G1



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current C1.15 171 8 2.00

Solar X-ray Flux 24-hrs
GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Planetary k index past 2 Days
1-minute Estimated Planetary k index
Graph showing Planetary k index Graph showing 1-minute Estimated Planetary k index

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 386 km/sec 1.57 p/cm3 Bt 4.33 nT Bz 1.23 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs



Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
Current Sun

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.


Solar Cycle


Graph showing Seven Previous Cycles to date
Daily and Monthly Sunspot
Daily Sunspots Last 30 Days
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Daily Sunspots Last 20 Days
Sunspot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression

The Solar Cycle forecast comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and the International Space Environmental Services (ISES). This amounts to the ‘official’ forecast for the solar cycle. The Prediction Panel forecasts the sunspot number expected for solar maximum and has predicted Cycle 25 to reach a maximum of 115 occurring in July, 2025. The error bars on this prediction mean the panel expects the cycle maximum could be between 105-125 with the peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026.


Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Radio Communications Impact (D-Region Absorption)
Radio Communications Impact

  The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.

  The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


A Landspout Tornado over Kansas
A Landspout Tornado over Kansas
2023 November 29

Explanation: Could there be a tornado inside another tornado? In general, no. OK, but could there be a tornado inside a wider dust devil? No again, for one reason because tornados comes down from the sky, but dust devils rise up from the ground. What is pictured is a landspout, an unusual type of tornado known to occur on the edge of a violent thunderstorm. The featured landspout was imaged and identified in Kansas, USA, in June 2019 by an experienced storm chaser. The real tornado is in the center, and the outer sheath was possibly created by large dust particles thrown out from the central tornado. So far, the only planet known to create tornados is Earth, although tornado-like activity has been found on the Sun and dust devils are common on Mars.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: Flight Day 13
Credit & Copyright: Brad Hannon
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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