Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2019 Sep 17 2228 UTC - Read More
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=1 - Quiet
Kp=1 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 2-hr max
A7.27 - Normal
A7.12 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
B1.2 - Normal 2019-07-07
A6.04 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
2.01 protons/cm3
315 km/sec - Calm
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
3.72 (Bt) - Normal
0.520 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 372 km/s at 22/1002Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/1515Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/2124Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2019 Sep 23 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 23-Sep 25 2019 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 23 to Sep 25 2019
Sep 23 Sep 24 Sep 25
Forecast High  
4
4
4
00-03UT 0 3 4
03-06UT 0 3 3
06-09UT 0 3 3
09-12UT 1 2 2
12-15UT 3 2 2
15-18UT 3 2 3
18-21UT 4 1 2
21-00UT 4 4 3
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Sep 23 to Sep 25
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 25% 25% 25%
Minor Storm 5% 5% 5%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 30% 30% 30%
Major-severe storm 30% 30% 30%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 23 to Sep 25 2019
Sep 23 Sep 24 Sep 25
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 23 to Sep 25 2019
Sep 23 Sep 24 Sep 25
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2019 Sep 23 0156 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2019 Sep 23 68 12 4
2019 Sep 24 68 12 4
2019 Sep 25 68 12 4
2019 Sep 26 68 8 3
2019 Sep 27 68 8 3
2019 Sep 28 68 38 6 G2
2019 Sep 29 68 28 5 G1
2019 Sep 30 68 10 4
2019 Oct 01 68 8 3
2019 Oct 02 68 10 3
2019 Oct 03 68 8 3
2019 Oct 04 68 5 2
2019 Oct 05 68 5 2
2019 Oct 06 68 12 4
2019 Oct 07 68 5 2
2019 Oct 08 68 5 2
2019 Oct 09 68 5 2
2019 Oct 10 68 8 3
2019 Oct 11 68 5 2
2019 Oct 12 68 8 3
2019 Oct 13 68 10 3
2019 Oct 14 68 8 3
2019 Oct 15 68 8 3
2019 Oct 16 68 5 2
2019 Oct 17 68 5 2
2019 Oct 18 68 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A6.04 68 4 1

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 315 km/sec 2.01 p/cm3 Bt 3.72 nT Bz -1.18 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 0825 UTC - 23 Sep 2019 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (0)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Equinox: The Sun from Solstice to Solstice
Equinox: The Sun from Solstice to Solstice
2019 September 23

Explanation: Today is an equinox, a date when day and night are equal. Tomorrow, and every day until the next equinox, the night will be longer than the day in Earth's northern hemisphere, and the day will be longer than the night in Earth's southern hemisphere. An equinox occurs midway between the two solstices, when the days and nights are the least equal. The featured picture is a composite of hourly images taken of the Sun above Bursa, Turkey on key days from solstice to equinox to solstice. The bottom Sun band was taken during the north's winter solstice in 2007 December, when the Sun could not rise very high in the sky nor stay above the horizon very long. This lack of Sun caused winter. The top Sun band was taken during the northern summer solstice in 2008 June, when the Sun rose highest in the sky and stayed above the horizon for more than 12 hours. This abundance of Sun caused summer. The middle band was taken during an equinox in 2008 March, but it is the same sun band that Earthlings see today, the day of the most recent equinox.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: martian dunes thawing
Credit & Copyright: Tunç Tezel (TWAN)
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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