Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2021 Mar 07 2221 UTC - Read More
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=4 - Unsettled
Kp=1 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 2-hr max
A8.43 - Normal
A7.72 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
Standby - New Event
A0.10 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
7.60 protons/cm3
499km/s Slightly Elevated
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
4.64 (Bt) - Normal
Missing Data




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 07/0358Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/1932Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 07/1556Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1419 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (08 Mar, 09 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (10 Mar).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2021 Mar 08 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 08-Mar 10 2021 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 08 to Mar 10 2021
Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar 10
Forecast High  
4
3
2
00-03UT 4 3 2
03-06UT 3 2 2
06-09UT 3 2 2
09-12UT 2 2 2
12-15UT 2 2 2
15-18UT 2 2 2
18-21UT 2 2 2
21-00UT 3 3 2
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
0
3
1
4
1
1
1
1
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Mar 08 to Mar 10
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 25% 25% 20%
Minor Storm 10% 10% 5%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 30% 30% 25%
Major-severe storm 40% 40% 30%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 08 to Mar 10 2021
Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar 10
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 08 to Mar 10 2021
Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar 10
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2021 Mar 01 1603 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2021 Mar 01 73 18 5 G1
2021 Mar 02 74 15 4
2021 Mar 03 74 8 3
2021 Mar 04 73 5 2
2021 Mar 05 73 5 2
2021 Mar 06 73 15 4
2021 Mar 07 74 5 2
2021 Mar 08 70 5 2
2021 Mar 09 74 5 2
2021 Mar 10 76 5 2
2021 Mar 11 72 5 2
2021 Mar 12 71 15 4
2021 Mar 13 72 10 4
2021 Mar 14 70 5 2
2021 Mar 15 71 15 4
2021 Mar 16 72 8 3
2021 Mar 17 71 5 2
2021 Mar 18 73 18 5 G1
2021 Mar 19 76 20 5 G1
2021 Mar 20 75 20 4
2021 Mar 21 76 18 4
2021 Mar 22 78 12 3
2021 Mar 23 81 8 3
2021 Mar 24 80 5 2
2021 Mar 25 80 5 2
2021 Mar 26 79 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A0.10 78 10 1

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 499 km/sec 7.60 p/cm3 Bt 4.64 nT Bz 1.09 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 0825 UTC - 08 Mar 2021 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (14)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Three Tails of Comet NEOWISE
Three Tails of Comet NEOWISE
2021 March 8

Explanation: What created the unusual red tail in Comet NEOWISE? Sodium. A spectacular sight back in the summer of 2020, Comet NEOWISE, at times, displayed something more than just a surprisingly striated white dust tail and a pleasingly patchy blue ion tail. Some color sensitive images showed an unusual red tail, and analysis showed much of this third tail's color was emitted by sodium. Gas rich in sodium atoms might have been liberated from Comet NEOWISE's warming nucleus in early July by bright sunlight, electrically charged by ultraviolet sunlight, and then pushed out by the solar wind. The featured image was captured in mid-July from Brittany, France and shows the real colors. Sodium comet tails have been seen before but are rare -- this one disappeared by late July. Comet C/2020 F3 (NEOWISE) has since faded, lost all of its bright tails, and now approaches the orbit of Jupiter as it heads back to the outer Solar System, to return only in about 7,000 years.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: mars 360
Credit & Copyright: Nicolas Lefaudeux
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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