Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2018 Jul 21 1831 UTC - Read More
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=2 - Quiet
Kp=1 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 2-hr max
A3.77 - Normal
A2.21 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
B1.3 - Normal 2018-07-15
A1.54 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
5.77 protons/cm3
489km/s Slightly Elevated
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
3.53 (Bt) - Normal
0.493 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Jul, 23 Jul, 24 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 586 km/s at 21/1514Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21/0649Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 21/0623Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (23 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (24 Jul).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2018 Jul 22 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 22-Jul 24 2018 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 22 to Jul 24 2018
Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul 24
Forecast High  
2
4
5 G1
00-03UT 2 2 5 G1
03-06UT 1 2 5 G1
06-09UT 2 1 4
09-12UT 2 1 4
12-15UT 1 1 2
15-18UT 1 2 2
18-21UT 1 3 3
21-00UT 2 4 4
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
2
2
2
1
2
2
1
1
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Jul 22 to Jul 24
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 25% 40%
Minor Storm 5% 10% 30%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 5%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 5%
Minor Storm 25% 25% 20%
Major-severe storm 20% 35% 65%

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is anticipated on day three (24 Jul) due to expected influence from a negative polarity CH HSS.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 22 to Jul 24 2018
Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul 24
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 22 to Jul 24 2018
Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul 24
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2018 Jul 16 0150 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2018 Jul 16 72 8 3
2018 Jul 17 72 5 2
2018 Jul 18 72 5 2
2018 Jul 19 72 5 2
2018 Jul 20 72 16 4
2018 Jul 21 72 8 3
2018 Jul 22 72 10 4
2018 Jul 23 70 18 5 G1
2018 Jul 24 68 8 3
2018 Jul 25 68 5 2
2018 Jul 26 68 5 2
2018 Jul 27 68 5 2
2018 Jul 28 68 5 2
2018 Jul 29 68 5 2
2018 Jul 30 68 5 2
2018 Jul 31 68 5 2
2018 Aug 01 68 5 2
2018 Aug 02 70 5 2
2018 Aug 03 72 5 2
2018 Aug 04 72 5 2
2018 Aug 05 72 5 2
2018 Aug 06 72 5 2
2018 Aug 07 72 5 2
2018 Aug 08 72 5 2
2018 Aug 09 72 5 2
2018 Aug 10 72 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A1.54 70 11 1

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 489 km/sec 5.77 p/cm3 Bt 3.53 nT Bz -0.85 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 1425 UTC - 22 Jul 2018 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (11)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Planck Maps the Microwave Background
Planck Maps the Microwave Background
2018 July 22

Explanation: What is our universe made of? To help find out, ESA launched the Planck satellite from 2009 to 2013 to map, in unprecedented detail, slight temperature differences on the oldest optical surface known -- the background sky when our universe first became transparent to light. Visible in all directions, this cosmic microwave background is a complex tapestry that could only show the hot and cold patterns observed were the universe to be composed of specific types of energy that evolved in specific ways. The final results, reported last week, confirm again that most of our universe is mostly composed of mysterious and unfamiliar dark energy, and that even most of the remaining matter energy is strangely dark. Additionally, the "final" 2018 Planck data impressively peg the age of the universe at about 13.8 billion years and the local expansion rate -- called the Hubble constant -- at 67.4 (+/- 0.5) km/sec/Mpc. Oddly, this early-universe determined Hubble constant is slightly lower than that determined by other methods in the late-universe, creating a tension that is causing much discussion and speculation.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: Fermi Science Finals
Credit : European Space Agency, Planck Collaboration
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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