Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2024 Mar 18 1942 UTC - Read More
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp= 3.00 - Quiet
Kp= 2.67 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 6-hr max
M6.77 - R2 Class Flare
C4.27 - Active
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
C2.8-Active 2024-03-19
C1.93 - Active
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
7.36 protons/cm3
366 km/sec - Calm
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
3.23 (Bt) - Normal
1.5 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2024
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 18/1919Z from Region 3615 (S12E62). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar, 21 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 420 km/s at 18/0821Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 18/2006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 18/2007Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 355 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (19 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2024 Mar 19 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 19-Mar 21 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 19 to Mar 21 2024
Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21
Forecast High  
3.33
4.67 G1
4.67 G1
00-03UT 3.33 1.67 3.00
03-06UT 2.67 2.00 4.00
06-09UT 2.00 1.67 4.67 G1
09-12UT 1.67 3.00 3.00
12-15UT 0.67 3.67 4.00
15-18UT 0.67 3.67 3.00
18-21UT 1.67 4.00 3.00
21-00UT 1.67 4.67 G1 2.00
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.33
3.00
3.00
2.33
2.67
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Mar 19 to Mar 21
Middle Latitudes Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21
Active 5% 40% 40%
Minor Storm 5% 25% 25%
Major-severe storm 1% 5% 5%
High Latitudes Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21
Active 15% 5% 5%
Minor Storm 15% 20% 20%
Major-severe storm 15% 65% 65%

Rationale: G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 20-21 Mar due to the arrival of CMEs from 17 Mar.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 19 to Mar 21 2024
Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Mar 18 2024 1919 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 19 to Mar 21 2024
Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21
Class: C-flare 99% 99% 99%
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
PCAF Updated: Monday, 18 Mar 2024 UTC
Polar Cap Absorption FCST green

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 19-21 Mar.

Region Flare Probabilities for Mar 19, 2024
Region Class C M X P
3607 25% 5% 0% 0%
3608 10% 0% 0% 0%
3611 10% 0% 0% 0%
3613 50% 10% 0% 0%
3614 50% 10% 0% 0%
3615 65% 15% 0% 0%
3616 10% 0% 0% 0%


27-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2024 Mar 18 0617 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2024 Mar 18 155 5 2
2024 Mar 19 160 5 2
2024 Mar 20 162 18 5 G1
2024 Mar 21 165 16 5 G1
2024 Mar 22 160 5 2
2024 Mar 23 155 5 2
2024 Mar 24 155 5 2
2024 Mar 25 152 5 2
2024 Mar 26 160 5 2
2024 Mar 27 160 5 2
2024 Mar 28 162 12 3
2024 Mar 29 165 8 3
2024 Mar 30 165 5 2
2024 Mar 31 160 5 2
2024 Apr 01 155 5 2
2024 Apr 02 155 5 2
2024 Apr 03 155 15 3
2024 Apr 04 158 12 3
2024 Apr 05 160 12 3
2024 Apr 06 160 5 2
2024 Apr 07 162 5 2
2024 Apr 08 155 5 2
2024 Apr 09 150 8 3
2024 Apr 10 145 8 3
2024 Apr 11 148 8 3
2024 Apr 12 148 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current C1.93 177 6 2.67

Solar X-ray Flux 24-hrs
GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Planetary k index past 2 Days
1-minute Estimated Planetary k index
Graph showing Planetary k index Graph showing 1-minute Estimated Planetary k index

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 366 km/sec 7.36 p/cm3 Bt 3.23 nT Bz -3.07 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs



Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
Current Sun

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.


Solar Cycle


Graph showing Seven Previous Cycles to date
Daily and Monthly Sunspot
Daily Sunspots Last 30 Days
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Daily Sunspots Last 20 Days
Sunspot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression

The Solar Cycle forecast comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and the International Space Environmental Services (ISES). This amounts to the ‘official’ forecast for the solar cycle. The Prediction Panel forecasts the sunspot number expected for solar maximum and has predicted Cycle 25 to reach a maximum of 115 occurring in July, 2025. The error bars on this prediction mean the panel expects the cycle maximum could be between 105-125 with the peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026.


Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Radio Communications Impact (D-Region Absorption)
Radio Communications Impact

  The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.

  The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause.




 Astronomy Picture of the Day


A Picturesque Equinox Sunset
A Picturesque Equinox Sunset
2024 March 19

Explanation: What's that at the end of the road? The Sun. Many towns have roads that run east-west, and on two days each year, the Sun rises and sets right down the middle. Today, in some parts of the world (tomorrow in others), is one of those days: an equinox. Not only is this a day of equal night ("aequus"-"nox") and day time, but also a day when the sun rises precisely to the east and sets due west. Displayed here is a picturesque rural road in Alberta, Canada that runs approximately east-west. The featured image was taken during the September Equinox of 2021, but the geometry remains the same every year. In many cultures, this March equinox is taken to be the first day of a season, typically spring in Earth's northern hemisphere, and autumn in the south. Does your favorite street run east-west? Tonight, at sunset, you can find out with a quick glance.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: the eyes of march
Credit & Copyright: Alan Dyer, Amazingsky.com, TWAN
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day


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