Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2018 Nov 16 1701 UTC - Read More
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=2 - Quiet
Kp=1 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 2-hr max
A3.10 - Normal
A2.24 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
B2.3 - Normal 2018-10-13
A1.05 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
16.08 protons/cm3
317 km/sec - Calm
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
6.17 (Bt) - Normal
0.407 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 424 km/s at 17/2226Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 18/1121Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/1405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 788 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2018 Nov 19 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 19-Nov 21 2018 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 19 to Nov 21 2018
Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21
Forecast High  
2
3
3
00-03UT 1 3 3
03-06UT 2 2 3
06-09UT 1 2 3
09-12UT 1 1 3
12-15UT 1 1 2
15-18UT 1 2 2
18-21UT 2 3 1
21-00UT 2 3 2
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
0
1
1
2
1
1
0
1
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Nov 19 to Nov 21
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 10% 20%
Minor Storm 5% 1% 5%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 25% 25% 25%
Major-severe storm 25% 20% 30%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 19 to Nov 21 2018
Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 19 to Nov 21 2018
Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2018 Nov 19 0314 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2018 Nov 19 72 8 3
2018 Nov 20 72 8 3
2018 Nov 21 71 10 3
2018 Nov 22 68 8 3
2018 Nov 23 68 5 2
2018 Nov 24 68 5 2
2018 Nov 25 68 5 2
2018 Nov 26 68 5 2
2018 Nov 27 68 5 2
2018 Nov 28 68 5 2
2018 Nov 29 68 5 2
2018 Nov 30 68 5 2
2018 Dec 01 68 15 4
2018 Dec 02 68 30 5 G1
2018 Dec 03 69 10 3
2018 Dec 04 70 10 3
2018 Dec 05 71 8 3
2018 Dec 06 71 8 3
2018 Dec 07 71 12 4
2018 Dec 08 71 12 4
2018 Dec 09 71 8 3
2018 Dec 10 71 5 2
2018 Dec 11 71 5 2
2018 Dec 12 71 5 2
2018 Dec 13 71 5 2
2018 Dec 14 71 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A1.05 72 3 1

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 317 km/sec 16.08 p/cm3 Bt 6.17 nT Bz -3.44 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 1425 UTC - 19 Nov 2018 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (14)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Gibbous Moon beyond Swedish Mountain
Gibbous Moon beyond Swedish Mountain
2018 November 19

Explanation: This is a gibbous Moon. More Earthlings are familiar with a full moon, when the entire face of Luna is lit by the Sun, and a crescent moon, when only a sliver of the Moon's face is lit. When more than half of the Moon is illuminated, though, but still short of full illumination, the phase is called gibbous. Rarely seen in television and movies, gibbous moons are quite common in the actual night sky. The featured image was taken in Jämtland, Sweden near the end of last month. That gibbous moon turned, in a few days, into a crescent moon, and then a new moon, then back to a crescent, and a few days ago back to gibbous. And this same gibbous moon is visible again tonight, leading up to the Full Beaver Moon that occurs Friday night. Setting up to capture a picturesque gibbous moonscape, the photographer was quite surprised to find an airplane, surely well in the foreground, appearing to fly past it.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: rogue rock
Credit & Copyright: Göran Strand
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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