Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2020 Nov 24 0500 UTC - Read More
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=2 - Quiet
Kp=1 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 2-hr max
A8.43 - Normal
A7.72 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
Standby - New Event
A0.10 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
Missing Data
4949km/sec Extreme!
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
3.04 (Bt) - Normal
Missing Data




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (24 Nov) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 619 km/s at 23/0245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2400 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Nov, 25 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Nov).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2020 Nov 24 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 24-Nov 26 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 24 to Nov 26 2020
Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov 26
Forecast High  
3
4
3
00-03UT 2 3 3
03-06UT 1 2 2
06-09UT 0 2 2
09-12UT 1 2 2
12-15UT 2 2 3
15-18UT 2 1 3
18-21UT 2 4 3
21-00UT 3 4 3
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
2
2
2
2
1
0
1
1
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Nov 24 to Nov 26
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 25% 30% 25%
Minor Storm 10% 15% 10%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 30% 30% 30%
Major-severe storm 40% 45% 40%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 24 to Nov 26 2020
Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov 26
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 24 to Nov 26 2020
Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov 26
R1-R2 10% 10% 15%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2020 Nov 23 0446 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2020 Nov 23 90 18 5 G1
2020 Nov 24 92 10 3
2020 Nov 25 94 12 4
2020 Nov 26 94 10 3
2020 Nov 27 94 5 2
2020 Nov 28 94 5 2
2020 Nov 29 92 5 2
2020 Nov 30 92 5 2
2020 Dec 01 92 5 2
2020 Dec 02 92 5 2
2020 Dec 03 92 8 3
2020 Dec 04 92 8 3
2020 Dec 05 92 5 2
2020 Dec 06 88 5 2
2020 Dec 07 85 5 2
2020 Dec 08 82 5 2
2020 Dec 09 80 5 2
2020 Dec 10 78 5 2
2020 Dec 11 75 5 2
2020 Dec 12 75 5 2
2020 Dec 13 75 5 2
2020 Dec 14 75 5 2
2020 Dec 15 75 5 2
2020 Dec 16 75 5 2
2020 Dec 17 75 5 2
2020 Dec 18 77 12 4



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A0.10 96 8 1

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 4949 km/sec 4949 p/cm3 Bt 3.04 nT Bz -0.19 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 1425 UTC - 24 Nov 2020 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (38)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


The Helix Nebula from CFHT
The Helix Nebula from CFHT
2020 November 24

Explanation: Will our Sun look like this one day? The Helix Nebula is one of brightest and closest examples of a planetary nebula, a gas cloud created at the end of the life of a Sun-like star. The outer gasses of the star expelled into space appear from our vantage point as if we are looking down a helix. The remnant central stellar core, destined to become a white dwarf star, glows in light so energetic it causes the previously expelled gas to fluoresce. The Helix Nebula, given a technical designation of NGC 7293, lies about 700 light-years away towards the constellation of the Water Bearer (Aquarius) and spans about 2.5 light-years. The featured picture was taken with the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT) located atop a dormant volcano in Hawaii, USA. A close-up of the inner edge of the Helix Nebula shows complex gas knots of unknown origin.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: andromedian horizon
Credit & Copyright: CFHT, Coelum, MegaCam, J.-C. Cuillandre (CFHT) & G. A. Anselmi (Coelum)
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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