Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2024 Jun 12 2356 UTC - Read More
EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp= 1.33 - Quiet
Kp= 1.00 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 6-hr max
M3.22 - R1 Class Flare
M2.46 - R1 Class Flare
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
M2.4-Class Flare 2024-06-14
C5.14 - Active
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
2.10 protons/cm3
335 km/sec - Calm
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
5.44 (Bt) - Normal
8.78 - Active




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2024
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 13/1645Z from Region 3713 (S13E54). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 364 km/s at 12/2322Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8 pfu at 13/0615Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 106 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jun) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (14 Jun).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2024 Jun 14 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 14-Jun 16 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 14 to Jun 16 2024
Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 16
Forecast High  
1.67
3.67
4.00
00-03UT 1.67 1.33 4.00
03-06UT 1.67 2.00 3.67
06-09UT 1.33 2.00 3.33
09-12UT 1.67 2.67 3.33
12-15UT 1.33 2.67 2.33
15-18UT 1.33 2.67 2.33
18-21UT 1.33 3.67 2.00
21-00UT 1.33 3.67 2.00
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.33
1.33
1.33
0.67
1.00
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Jun 14 to Jun 16
Middle Latitudes Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 16
Active 10% 35% 35%
Minor Storm 1% 20% 20%
Major-severe storm 1% 5% 5%
High Latitudes Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 16
Active 15% 10% 10%
Minor Storm 20% 30% 30%
Major-severe storm 20% 50% 50%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 14 to Jun 16 2024
Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 16
S1 or greater 10% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jun 13 2024 1645 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 14 to Jun 16 2024
Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 16
Class: C-flare 99% 99% 99%
R1-R2 35% 35% 35%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
PCAF Updated: Thursday, 13 Jun 2024 UTC
Polar Cap Absorption FCST green

Rationale: There is a chance for isolated moderate activity (R1/Minor Radio Blackouts) through 16 Jun.

Region Flare Probabilities for Jun 14, 2024
Region Class C M X P
3702 5% 1% 1% 1%
3707 5% 1% 1% 1%
3708 10% 1% 1% 1%
3709 45% 5% 1% 1%
3711 5% 1% 1% 1%
3712 60% 20% 5% 1%
3713 20% 5% 1% 1%
3716 25% 5% 1% 1%


27-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2024 Jun 10 0135 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2024 Jun 10 175 35 6 G2
2024 Jun 11 170 20 5 G1
2024 Jun 12 170 10 3
2024 Jun 13 165 5 2
2024 Jun 14 165 5 2
2024 Jun 15 155 5 2
2024 Jun 16 155 5 2
2024 Jun 17 165 5 2
2024 Jun 18 175 5 2
2024 Jun 19 185 8 3
2024 Jun 20 185 8 3
2024 Jun 21 185 5 2
2024 Jun 22 190 8 3
2024 Jun 23 195 8 3
2024 Jun 24 200 5 2
2024 Jun 25 200 5 2
2024 Jun 26 205 5 2
2024 Jun 27 205 5 2
2024 Jun 28 205 5 2
2024 Jun 29 205 5 2
2024 Jun 30 200 8 3
2024 Jul 01 190 8 3
2024 Jul 02 180 5 2
2024 Jul 03 175 5 2
2024 Jul 04 170 5 2
2024 Jul 05 165 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current C5.14 170 4 1.00

Solar X-ray Flux 24-hrs
GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Planetary k index past 2 Days
1-minute Estimated Planetary k index
Graph showing Planetary k index Graph showing 1-minute Estimated Planetary k index

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 335 km/sec 2.10 p/cm3 Bt 5.44 nT Bz -3.12 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs



Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
Current Sun

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.


Solar Cycle


Graph showing Seven Previous Cycles to date
Daily and Monthly Sunspot
Daily Sunspots Last 30 Days
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Daily Sunspots Last 20 Days
Sunspot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression

The Solar Cycle forecast comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and the International Space Environmental Services (ISES). This amounts to the ‘official’ forecast for the solar cycle. The Prediction Panel forecasts the sunspot number expected for solar maximum and has predicted Cycle 25 to reach a maximum of 115 occurring in July, 2025. The error bars on this prediction mean the panel expects the cycle maximum could be between 105-125 with the peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026.


Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Radio Communications Impact (D-Region Absorption)
Radio Communications Impact

  The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.

  The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause.




 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Messier 66 Close Up
Messier 66 Close Up
2024 June 13

Explanation: Big, beautiful spiral galaxy Messier 66 lies a mere 35 million light-years away. The gorgeous island universe is about 100 thousand light-years across, similar in size to the Milky Way. This Hubble Space Telescope close-up view spans a region about 30,000 light-years wide around the galactic core. It shows the galaxy's disk dramatically inclined to our line-of-sight. Surrounding its bright core, the likely home of a supermassive black hole, obscuring dust lanes and young, blue star clusters sweep along spiral arms dotted with the tell-tale glow of pinkish star forming regions. Messier 66, also known as NGC 3627, is the brightest of the three galaxies in the gravitationally interacting Leo Triplet.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: pixels in space
Credit : NASA, ESA, Hubble Heritage (STScI/AURA)-ESA/Hubble Collaboration. Acknowledgement: Davide De Martin and Robert Gendler
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day


powered by Cumulus v1.9.3 (1059)
Ambient Weather VWS v14.00
Weather-Display (10.37S-(b58))
Virtual VP software
Top Website Map Copyright © 2007 - 2024 Foresthillweather.com Never base important decisions on this or any weather information obtained from the Internet