Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2019 May 16 1742 UTC - Read More
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=2 - Quiet
Kp=2 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 2-hr max
Missing Data
Missing Data
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
B1.4 - Normal 2019-05-16
Missing Data
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
17.26 protons/cm3
350 km/sec - Calm
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
2.16 (Bt) - Normal
Missing Data2




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 May, 26 May, 27 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 364 km/s at 24/0039Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/2138Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/0315Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 130 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (26 May, 27 May).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2019 May 24 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 24-May 26 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 24 to May 26 2019
May 24 May 25 May 26
Forecast High  
2
3
2
00-03UT 1 2 2
03-06UT 2 2 2
06-09UT 1 2 1
09-12UT 1 2 1
12-15UT 1 2 1
15-18UT 1 2 1
18-21UT 2 2 1
21-00UT 2 3 2
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - May 25 to May 27
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 5% 5%
Minor Storm 5% 1% 1%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 20% 15% 15%
Major-severe storm 20% 10% 10%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 24 to May 26 2019
May 24 May 25 May 26
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 24 to May 26 2019
May 24 May 25 May 26
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2019 May 20 0537 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2019 May 20 69 8 3
2019 May 21 69 8 3
2019 May 22 68 8 3
2019 May 23 67 5 2
2019 May 24 67 5 2
2019 May 25 67 5 2
2019 May 26 67 5 2
2019 May 27 67 5 2
2019 May 28 67 10 3
2019 May 29 67 12 4
2019 May 30 70 8 3
2019 May 31 72 10 3
2019 Jun 01 74 5 2
2019 Jun 02 76 5 2
2019 Jun 03 76 5 2
2019 Jun 04 76 5 2
2019 Jun 05 76 5 2
2019 Jun 06 76 5 2
2019 Jun 07 76 5 2
2019 Jun 08 76 5 2
2019 Jun 09 76 5 2
2019 Jun 10 76 5 2
2019 Jun 11 74 5 2
2019 Jun 12 72 5 2
2019 Jun 13 72 5 2
2019 Jun 14 70 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current Missing Data 66 5 2

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 350 km/sec 17.26 p/cm3 Bt 2.16 nT Bz -0.62 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 2025 UTC - 24 May 2019 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (0)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Boulders on Bennu
Boulders on Bennu
2019 May 24

Explanation: An abundance of boulders litters the surface asteroid 101955 Bennu in this dramatic close-up from the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft. Taken on March 28 from a distance of just 3.4 kilometers (2.1 miles) the field of view is about 50 meters across while the light colored boulder at top right is 4.8 meters tall. Likely a loose conglomerate rubble pile asteroid, Bennu itself spans less than 500 meters. That's about the height of the Empire State Building. Mapping the near Earth asteroid since the spacecraft's arrival in December of 2018, the OSIRIS-REx mission plans a TAG (Touch-and-Go) maneuver for July 2020 to sample Bennu's rugged surface, returning the sample to planet Earth in September 2023. Citizen scientists have been invited to help choose the sample collection site.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: light-weekend
Credit : NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, University of Arizona
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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