Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alart ) - Issue Time: 2017 Dec 17 0438 UTC - Read More
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=3 - Quiet
Kp=3 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alart 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alart 2-hr max
A8.52 - Normal
A4.57 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alart
B1.2 - Normal 2017-12-13
A3.95 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
14.21 protons/cm3
409km/s Slightly Elevated
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
8.21 (Bt) - Normal
0.408 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec, 19 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 15/2200Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 192 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2017 Dec 17 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 17-Dec 19 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 17 to Dec 19 2017
Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec 19
Forecast High  
4
5 G1
5 G1
00-03UT 2 4 4
03-06UT 2 5 G1 5 G1
06-09UT 2 5 G1 4
09-12UT 2 4 3
12-15UT 2 3 3
15-18UT 3 3 3
18-21UT 3 3 4
21-00UT 4 4 4
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
1
1
1
1
1
2
3
3
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Dec 17 to Dec 19
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 25% 40% 35%
Minor Storm 10% 25% 20%
Major-severe storm 1% 5% 5%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 10% 10%
Minor Storm 30% 25% 25%
Major-severe storm 35% 55% 55%

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 18-19 Dec due to the anticipated influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 17 to Dec 19 2017
Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec 19
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 17 to Dec 19 2017
Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec 19
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2017 Dec 11 0147 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2017 Dec 11 72 14 4
2017 Dec 12 72 16 4
2017 Dec 13 74 14 4
2017 Dec 14 74 8 3
2017 Dec 15 74 5 2
2017 Dec 16 74 5 2
2017 Dec 17 74 8 3
2017 Dec 18 74 25 5 G1
2017 Dec 19 74 10 3
2017 Dec 20 74 8 3
2017 Dec 21 74 8 3
2017 Dec 22 74 5 2
2017 Dec 23 74 5 2
2017 Dec 24 72 5 2
2017 Dec 25 72 5 2
2017 Dec 26 72 5 2
2017 Dec 27 70 12 4
2017 Dec 28 70 8 3
2017 Dec 29 70 5 2
2017 Dec 30 70 5 2
2017 Dec 31 70 10 3
2018 Jan 01 70 26 5 G1
2018 Jan 02 70 14 4
2018 Jan 03 70 10 3
2018 Jan 04 70 5 2
2018 Jan 05 70 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A3.95 71 4 3

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 409 km/sec 14.21 p/cm3 Bt 8.21 nT Bz -2.02 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 0225 UTC - 17 Dec 2017 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (0)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


A Wintry Shower
A Wintry Shower
2017 December 16

Explanation: Four Geminids flash through northern skies in this wintry night skyscape. The bright fireball and 3 fainter meteors were captured in a single 10 second exposure, near the peak of December's Geminid meteor shower. Reflecting the fireball's greenish light, a partially frozen Lake Edith in Alberta Canada's Jasper National Park lies in the foreground, with the Canadian Rocky Mountains ranging along the northern horizon. Of course, the glacial lake is cold even in summer. But photographer Jack Fusco reports that he experienced -9 degree C temperatures that night while enjoying one of the most active meteor showers he's ever seen.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: quasar mirage
Credit & Copyright: Jack Fusco
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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