SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Weather Conditions Clear skies, Dry Visibility: 10 miles |
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This Icon is a Combination of Blue Canyon Airport and Data From foresthillweather.com |
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Advisories / Alerts |
Severe Wx Summary! | ||||
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Tue, Mar 19, 2024 - 4:21am |
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2024 |
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 18/1919Z from Region 3615 (S12E62). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. |
IB. Solar Activity Forecast Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar, 21 Mar). |
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 420 km/s at 18/0821Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 18/2006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 18/2007Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 355 pfu. |
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (19 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar). |
Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2024 Mar 19 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 19-Mar 21 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 19 to Mar 21 2024 |
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Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Mar 19 to Mar 21 |
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Rationale: G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 20-21 Mar due to the arrival of CMEs from 17 Mar.
Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 19 to Mar 21 2024 |
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Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Mar 18 2024 1919 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 19 to Mar 21 2024 |
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Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 19-21 Mar.
Region Flare Probabilities for Mar 19, 2024 |
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Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2024 Mar 18 0617 UTC
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Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). | Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. |
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Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10. |
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The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere. |
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This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression | F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression |
- Solar Cycles Highcharts
The Solar Cycle forecast comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and the International Space Environmental Services (ISES). This amounts to the ‘official’ forecast for the solar cycle. The Prediction Panel forecasts the sunspot number expected for solar maximum and has predicted Cycle 25 to reach a maximum of 115 occurring in July, 2025. The error bars on this prediction mean the panel expects the cycle maximum could be between 105-125 with the peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026.
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The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere. The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause. |
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Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach. |
Source: Space Weather.com |
A Picturesque Equinox Sunset | |||
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2024 March 19 |
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Explanation: What's that at the end of the road? The Sun. Many towns have roads that run east-west, and on two days each year, the Sun rises and sets right down the middle. Today, in some parts of the world (tomorrow in others), is one of those days: an equinox. Not only is this a day of equal night ("aequus"-"nox") and day time, but also a day when the sun rises precisely to the east and sets due west. Displayed here is a picturesque rural road in Alberta, Canada that runs approximately east-west. The featured image was taken during the September Equinox of 2021, but the geometry remains the same every year. In many cultures, this March equinox is taken to be the first day of a season, typically spring in Earth's northern hemisphere, and autumn in the south. Does your favorite street run east-west? Tonight, at sunset, you can find out with a quick glance. |
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High Resolution Image | |||
Tomorrow’s Image: the eyes of march | |||
Credit & Copyright: Alan Dyer, Amazingsky.com, TWAN | |||
Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day |
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of: NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).
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