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Updated:  Sun Jul 5 00:36:02 UTC 2020

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MD1101 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #1101
Issued: 04/2257 UTC
Until: 05/0100 UTC
Concerning: SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

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  • SPC MD 1101

    Sat, 04 Jul 2020 22:58:02 +0000 UTC

    MD 1101 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE SOUTH DAKOTA/WYOMING/NEBRASKA TRI-STATE AREA.
    MD 1101 Image

    
    Mesoscale Discussion 1101
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0557 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2020
    
    Areas affected...southwest South Dakota and the South
    Dakota/Wyoming/Nebraska tri-state area.
    
    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 
    
    Valid 042257Z - 050100Z
    
    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
    
    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing from southwest South Dakota into
    eastern Wyoming will pose a risk for severe hail and wind over the
    next 1-2 hours.
    
    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developing along a trough axis across
    southwest SD into far eastern WY have shown signs of strong updrafts
    despite relatively weak deep layer shear (effective bulk wind shear
    at around 20-30 knots) and weak forcing for ascent. These strong
    updrafts are likely being supported by  MLCAPE on the order of
    1000-1500 J/kg and steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km on top of
    a deep, well mixed boundary layer. These storms will briefly pose a
    risk for severe hail with the stronger updraft pulses prior to
    becoming outflow dominant or experiencing inhibiting storm
    interactions from neighboring convection along the trough axis.
    Steep low-level lapse rates associated with the well-mixed boundary
    layer coupled with a dry 1-3 km sub-cloud layer will also support
    the potential for severe wind gusts with any thunderstorm outflow.
    
    ..Moore.. 07/04/2020
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...
    
    LAT...LON   42630477 43150408 43540319 43870226 44240171 44130109
                43820102 43220156 42940216 42370383 41880455 41880507
                42240514 42630477 
    
    
    Read more

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