Current Mesoscale Discussions
Updated:  Sun Jul 22 20:16:02 UTC 2018

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MD1137 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #1137
Issued: 22/2005 UTC
Until: 22/2200 UTC
Concerning: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 303...

MD1136 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #1136
Issued: 22/1856 UTC
Until: 22/2100 UTC
Concerning: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 303...304...

MD1135 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #1135
Issued: 22/1855 UTC
Until: 22/2130 UTC
Concerning: SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

  All times are UTC

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 Storm Prediction Center
  • SPC MD 1137

    Sun, 22 Jul 2018 20:06:03 +0000 UTC

    MD 1137 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 303... FOR NORTHERN FL...SOUTHWEST GA
    MD 1137 Image

    
    Mesoscale Discussion 1137
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0305 PM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018
    
    Areas affected...Northern FL...Southwest GA
    
    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303...
    
    Valid 222005Z - 222200Z
    
    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303
    continues.
    
    SUMMARY...The corridor of greatest threat for severe storms through
    22z will be from southwest GA into north-central FL.
    
    DISCUSSION...A large convective complex continues to affect
    northeast FL, with strong to severe storms extending from Orange
    county northwestward to near Gainesville.  Westerly low level winds
    are maximizing the convergence along the portion of the line from
    Lake county northward, and this is where the strongest storms are
    likely to continue for the next couple of hours.  Farther east near
    the east coast, low level flow is parallel to the boundary and is
    less likely to favor intense cells.
    
    Farther west, severe severe storms are tracking out of southeast AL
    and into southwest GA.  These storms will pose a risk of large hail
    and damaging wind gusts through the late afternoon as they move
    southeastward at 25-30 knots.
    
    ..Hart.. 07/22/2018
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
    
    LAT...LON   30428350 30018251 29358229 28728154 28488121 28358151
                29058285 29638365 30058475 30558534 31318533 31638472
                31068384 30428350 
    
    
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  • SPC MD 1136

    Sun, 22 Jul 2018 18:57:03 +0000 UTC

    MD 1136 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 303...304... FOR SOUTHERN AL...FL PANHANDLE
    MD 1136 Image

    
    Mesoscale Discussion 1136
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0156 PM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018
    
    Areas affected...Southern AL...FL Panhandle
    
    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303...304...
    
    Valid 221856Z - 222100Z
    
    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303, 304
    continues.
    
    SUMMARY...Severe storms over southern AL will track southeastward
    into the FL Panhandle.
    
    DISCUSSION...Several intense thunderstorms, including multiple
    supercells, are affecting southern AL.  These storms are tracking
    southeastward at 20-30 knots and will spread into the FL Panhandle
    in the next 1-2 hours.  The KMOB VAD profile shows northwesterly
    flow approaching 50 knots at 3-4 km AGL, which will continue to
    support supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. 
    Two inch hail was recently reported in Covington County AL with one
    of the supercells.  Low level winds are veered and rather weak. 
    However, the presence of multiple storm-scale outflow boundaries and
    large CAPE values may result in localized and brief environments
    favorable for a tornado or two this afternoon.  Also, eventual
    organization into one or more bowing structures that track across
    the FL Panhandle is possible.
    
    ..Hart.. 07/22/2018
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...
    
    LAT...LON   30178699 30488839 32378835 32288582 30428412 29538503
                30178699 
    
    
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  • SPC MD 1135

    Sun, 22 Jul 2018 18:56:03 +0000 UTC

    MD 1135 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL DAKOTAS
    MD 1135 Image

    
    Mesoscale Discussion 1135
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0155 PM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018
    
    Areas affected...Central Dakotas
    
    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 
    
    Valid 221855Z - 222130Z
    
    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
    
    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop this afternoon across the
    central Dakotas. The primary threats will be hail/wind.
    
    DISCUSSION...A few elevated storms are moving across northern North
    Dakota as an upper-level trough over Saskatchewan is providing
    ascent aloft over the area. A surface boundary/trough stretching
    from north-central North Dakota southward through northwest Nebraska
    and surface low near PHP should help focus convection this
    afternoon. Storms will develop in an environment conducive for
    severe weather characterized by moderate instability (MLCAPE
    1500-2500 J/kg) and shear (effective bulk shear 30-45 knots). Given
    the amount of CAPE/shear and orientation of the shear to the
    boundary, a broken line of cells are expected to develop along the
    surface boundary/trough and move east-southeast.
    
    Visible satellite imagery shows a stratus field across portions of
    central North Dakota ahead of the elevated storms, which could limit
    instability and the overall severe threat for this area. However,
    farther south, severe hail/wind are possible where daytime heating
    should increase the chances of surface-based storms. A watch is
    possible given the likelihood of severe storms although coverage may
    be problematic given the stratus layer.
    
    ..Nauslar/Dial.. 07/22/2018
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...
    
    LAT...LON   48979793 48539786 47239832 46219870 45339894 43909932
                43479952 43780030 44030143 44130195 44620182 45310159
                46170127 46490112 47470064 48970008 48959992 48979947
                48979793 
    
    
    Read more

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