SPC MD 537

Sat, 27 Apr 2024 10:31:03 +0000 UTC

MD 0537 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX INTO WESTERN OK

Mesoscale Discussion 0537
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Areas affected...Parts of northwest TX into western OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 271029Z - 271200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storm development is possible toward sunrise. Large
hail will be possible initially, but the tornado threat will
increase through the morning. Watch issuance is likely prior to 7 AM
CDT.

DISCUSSION...Rich low-level moisture is streaming into parts of the
TX South Plains and northwest TX this morning, in response to a
strong southerly low-level jet noted on regional VWPs. Meanwhile, a
strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant
mid/upper-level jet are approaching the southern Rockies. A cirrus
plume now moving over far west TX may be indicative of increasing
ascent in advance of the shortwave. As this ascent begins to impinge
on returning moisture across northwest TX, thunderstorm development
is expected near or just before sunrise, with increasing storm
coverage expected with time into parts of western OK. 

Initial storm development will likely be somewhat elevated, but
MUCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg and strong effective shear will
support supercell potential with an initial threat of large hail
(potentially in the 1.5 - 2 inch diameter range). As storms spread
into western OK, a transition to surface-based convection will be
possible later this morning, as MLCINH quickly erodes with even
modest diurnal heating. A transition to one or more clusters is
possible as storm coverage increases with time this morning, but
increasingly favorable low-level moisture and wind profiles will
support embedded supercells with an increasing tornado threat. Watch
issuance is likely prior to 7 AM CDT.

..Dean/Thompson.. 04/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34029986 33970016 33960083 34230093 35110009 36019945
            36869914 36939846 36549794 36019782 35349799 34419848
            34029986