Current Mesoscale Discussions
Updated:  Fri May 24 22:12:03 UTC 2019

Valid MD Image
MD Legend Image
MD0775 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #0775
Issued: 24/2143 UTC
Until: 24/2215 UTC
Concerning: SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
MD0774 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #0774
Issued: 24/2056 UTC
Until: 24/2230 UTC
Concerning: SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
MD0773 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #0773
Issued: 24/2051 UTC
Until: 24/2245 UTC
Concerning: TORNADO WATCH 232...
MD0771 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #0771
Issued: 24/2022 UTC
Until: 24/2215 UTC
Concerning: SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

  All times are UTC

Notice:  The responsibility for Heavy Rain Mesoscale Discussions has been transferred to the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) on April 9, 2013. Click here for the Service Change Notice. Archived Mesoscale Discussions
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 Storm Prediction Center
  • SPC MD 775

    Fri, 24 May 2019 21:44:03 +0000 UTC

    MD 0775 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN NORTH TX...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OK
    MD 0775 Image

    
Mesoscale Discussion 0775
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Areas affected...western north TX...southwest and central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 242143Z - 242215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for severe storms, including the possibility for
a couple of supercells capable of a hail/wind/tornado hazard, will
probably develop and move into western parts of north TX into
southwest OK along the I-44 into central OK this evening.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a couple of clusters of
thunderstorms across northwestern OK and in the Low Rolling Plains
of TX.  A very moist/unstable boundary layer is present over the
I-44 corridor in central and southwest OK to the east of the ongoing
activity.  Visible satellite imagery during the 400-430 pm period
has shown attempts at deeper convective development east of the
ongoing tornado watches.  

Over the next few hours, the southerly LLJ is forecast to gradually
intensify across OK/north TX.  Additional storm development is
anticipated with time.  Although KFDR and KTLX VAD data shows rather
modest low-level shear this afternoon, forecast soundings show
adequate low-level hodograph curvature for a low-level
mesocyclone/tornado risk (100-200 m^2/s^2 0-1 km SRH) given the very
unstable airmass (3000 J/kg MLCAPE).  A couple of supercells and
severe multicell clusters are forecast with a hail/wind/tornado risk
this evening.

..Smith/Grams.. 05/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   34249990 35559821 36119650 35679613 34469758 33479873
            33029926 33049962 34249990
    Read more

  • SPC MD 774

    Fri, 24 May 2019 20:57:03 +0000 UTC

    MD 0774 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN MO
    MD 0774 Image

    
Mesoscale Discussion 0774
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Areas affected...Northern MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 242056Z - 242230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Trends will be monitored for increasing thunderstorm
coverage and a watch may be needed to cover the resulting threat for
hail, damaging wind gusts, and possibly a few tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Air mass across northern MO continues to destabilize as
strong diurnal heating occurs amidst ample low-level moisture.
Visible satellite imagery shows a newly developed cumulus field east
of Kansas City, with a few attempts at deeper convection noted. As
the air mass further destabilizes, eventual convective initiation is
anticipated. Environment is characterized by moderate instability
(i.e. MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg) and ample vertical shear (i.e.
effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt) for supercells, with large hail
and damaging wind gusts as the main hazards. A tornado or two is
also possible. In addition to in situ convective initiation,
upstream thunderstorms across eastern KS may eventually move into
northwestern KS over the next few hours. Trends will be monitored
for possible watch issuance.

..Mosier/Dial.. 05/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON   39889505 40369432 40479309 40359195 39159197 38779441
            39889505
    Read more

  • SPC MD 773

    Fri, 24 May 2019 20:52:03 +0000 UTC

    MD 0773 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 232... FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS/PANHANDLE
    MD 0773 Image

    
Mesoscale Discussion 0773
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Areas affected...Portions of the Texas South Plains/Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 232...

Valid 242051Z - 242245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 232 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe/tornado risk continues for WW 769.

DISCUSSION...A multi-cellular cluster of severe-warned thunderstorms
is located generally east/northeast of Lubbock and southwest of
Childress. The overall storm environment remains favorable for
severe storms east of the cold front with MLCAPE of 2500+ J/kg and
35-45 knots of effective bulk shear. Given the parallel orientation
of the cold front and flow aloft, storms are remaining close to the
cold front for now. Additionally, the buoyant/unstable airmass is
currently favoring non-discrete storm modes. Recent guidance still
suggests the storms will shift eastward from the cold front as the
LLJ strengthens later this evening and a cold pool establishes.
Tornadoes remain possible especially with any discrete cells with
unperturbed inflow and as the LLJ strengthens this evening. Severe
hail and wind also remain likely.

..Nauslar/Dial.. 05/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   32530292 35620161 35639932 32500071 32530292
    Read more

  • SPC MD 771

    Fri, 24 May 2019 20:23:04 +0000 UTC

    MD 0771 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE BIG BEND
    MD 0771 Image

    
Mesoscale Discussion 0771
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Areas affected...Portions of the Permian Basin into the Big Bend

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 242022Z - 242215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage is likely to increase over the next couple
of hours across southwest Texas. Severe hail/wind are the main
threats, and a severe thunderstorm watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...The Cu field has become increasingly agitated over
southwest Texas into northern Mexico with storms beginning to fire
along the dryline. A supercell already exists east of Fort Stockton
that appears capable of 2"+ hail per MESH. As the thermal
circulations along the dryline become deep enough to break the cap,
isolated-scattered storms will develop in an environment
characterized by 2000-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 35-45 knots of
effective bulk shear per mesoanalysis. Much of the shear is
unidirectional/speed shear and strong insolation has led to 2 km AGL
cloud bases indicating the main threats are severe hail/wind. While
more storms are expected to develop, the coverage may remain more
isolated, which leads to uncertainty regarding a watch issuance.

..Nauslar/Dial.. 05/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   28940327 30190356 30660358 31440317 31490311 32440302
            32550259 32490143 32550075 32380036 31900027 31340038
            30700077 30140111 29770130 29590139 29700172 29680234
            29560256 29350271 29130283 28900306 28940327
    Read more
   NWS Current Mesoscale Discussions
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