Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by The National Weather Service
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FXUS66 KSTO 172125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
225 PM PDT Wed Oct 17 2018

Warm and dry this week. Chance of precipitation by the middle of
next week.


Eastern Pacific high pressure system will gradually shift east
over NoCal through the week. This will keep dry conditions and
warm daytime temperatures over the area. High temperatures in
80`s for valley locations will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal,
overnight lows will cool to near 50 with upper 40`s at outlying

Upper high over NorCal setting up above low pressure over SoCal
will cause downslope east winds over the Sierra Friday and
Saturday. A few gusts to 25 mph will be possible.



Weak upper low forecast to push across California on Sunday
bringing minimal impacts to norcal weather. Any precipitation
associated with this low should remain south of the forecast area
and even with a slight cooling, daytime highs are expected to
remain slightly above normal. Upper level Rex block pattern shifts
into the Great Basin on Monday bringing slightly cooler
temperatures but more importantly, the start of a transition to a
cooler and possibly wetter weather pattern. Models are in fairly
good agreement in pushing a shortwave trough into the Pacific
Northwest and Norcal on Tuesday. Models do differ a bit on depth
of this system but currently keep precipitation threat over the
northern portions of the CWA. Backed off somewhat on expanse of
precipitation chances using latest NBM as a guide. Even with the
cooling effect and cloud cover, current forecasts still keep
daytime highs Tuesday slightly above normal. Another shortwave
trough is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest next
Wednesday for another degree or two of cooling but this still
looks to be a far northern California precipitation producer.



VFR SKC conditions through Thu. Winds generally VRB05KT or nearly
calm at TAF sites. Light downslope (NE-E) winds over W Slope



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