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3/11/10 12:09am
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST DISCUSSION
000 FXUS66 KSTO 110620 AFDSTO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 1015 PM PST WED MAR 10 2010 .DISCUSSION... WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE NWRN CORNER OF NORCAL...AND ARE MOVING ACROSS OUR NRN MTN/VLY ZONES. THE GFS N-S CROSS SECTION SHOWS 90% RH AT 700 MBS SPREADING SWD TO JUST N OF SAC BY 12Z THU. THIS LOOKS TO BE CORRELATED TO THE WARM CLOUD TOPS SPREADING FARTHER INLAND. THESE CLOUDS MAY HAVE AN AMELIORATING INFLUENCE ON MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NRN ZONES TONIGHT AND PRECLUDE FROST. ELSEWHERE...A CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PORTENDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FROST IN THE INTERIOR VLY THU MORNING. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL BE SHIFTING INLAND ON THU...AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING GULF OF AK TROF. THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW WAA CLOUDS TO SPREAD PROGRESSIVELY EWD DURING THE DAY...SO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THIS FIRST DECK OF CLOUDS MAY WORK THROUGH THE RIDGE BY THU MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER SPREADING INLAND DURING THE DAY. MILDER AIR WILL ALSO BE SPREADING INLAND AS WELL WITH THICKNESSES AND 850 MBS TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM 8 DAM/5 DEG OR SO. MAX TEMPS ON THU MAY BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG WARMER THAN TODAY...EXCEPT IN AREAS WHERE THE CLOUD COVER INCREASES/THICKENS. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON THU WILL BE THE FORERUNNER OF THE NEXT STORM. JHM .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. A RATHER SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TAP OF AROUND 1.1 INCH PW WILL SUPPLY THIS SYSTEM. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS STARTING FRIDAY MORNING AND ENDING EARLY SATURDAY. A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN OVER 5000 FEET THEN WILL DROP FRIDAY NIGHT. LEVELS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP TO 2000 FEET OR LOWER OVER SHASTA COUNTY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AT THAT POINT. THE SIERRA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET THROUGH THE EVENT. STRONG RIDGING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLEARING AND WARMER WEATHER. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER THE SIERRA INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN DOWNTOWN SACRAMENTO MAY REACH 70 ON SUNDAY...WHICH HAS NOT HAPPENED YET THIS YEAR. THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY SHOULD REACH THE LOW 70S. EK .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON MONDAY (THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME TO HIT 70 IN 2010). MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS. THE SYSTEM MAY BRUSH BY THE FAR NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL RANGE AND SHASTA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. && .AVIATION... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY EXCEPT LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE VALLEY AND IN THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS UNTIL 20Z. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$
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