000
FXUS66 KSTO 291028
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
228 AM PST Wed Nov 29 2023

.Synopsis...
A few showers are possible Wednesday morning, followed by mostly
sunny conditions. Shower and mountain snow chances increase
late week and into the Saturday, then decrease again on Sunday.
Drier weather early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
RADAR is currently showing showers moving over the Delta region and
Coastal Range, and into the Valley. This marks the start of
precipitation chances over the area for the next few days. Showers
will mostly be relegated to the overnight and early morning hours in
the Coastal Range, Delta region, and western side of the Valley,
receding in the morning until late Thursday when showers will
begin again in the mountains. Low temperatures this morning and on
Thursday morning will be slightly warmer than they have been the
last few days due to cloud cover from the current low pressure
system. However, Valley lows are still on track to reach around
the mid 30s to low 40s the next couple of days, so chilly mornings
aren`t entirely out of the picture. High temperatures today and
Thursday will remain mild, with Valley temperatures in the low
60s, and temperatures in the foothills and mountains reaching the
mid 50s and mid 40s to low 50s respectively.

As we move into late Thursday and early Friday, another fast moving
low pressure system will move over the area, bringing cooler
temperatures and higher chances of precipitation to the area. Valley
rain will be light and mostly relegated to the eastern portion near
the foothills; otherwise, precipitation can primarily be expected in
the foothills and mountains. Currently, the NBM is showing a 10 to 20%
chance of a quarter inch or more of precipitation in the Valley,
and a 35 to 65% chance in the foothills and mountains. There is
also a 15 to 55% chance of snow accumulations of 6 inches or more
in the mountains. Snow levels will fluctuate over this time period
as well, starting around 4500 to 5000 ft on Thursday, lowering to
3000-4000 ft by early Friday, and eventually rising again to 4000
to 4500 ft later that day.

Shower chances continue on Saturday, this time with the highest
probabilities occurring in the northern Sacramento Valley,
foothills, and mountains. Probabilities of seeing a quarter inch or
more of precipitation on Saturday are 30 to 60% in the northern
Sacramento Valley, 35 to 60% in the foothills and mountains.
Additionally, there is a 15 to 55% chance of snow accumulations of 6
inches or more in the mountains. By late Saturday, a ridging pattern
will begin to build west of the area, which will eventually start
to push out the trough and lower chances of precipitation as we
move further into the weekend.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)...
Ensembles and clusters indicate ridging building over the
forecast area from the Pacific Sunday and lasting through the
early portions of next week. A low moving into the Pacific NW
brings the potential for more unsettled weather. Temperatures warm
on Monday through midweek with chances for light precipitation
over the mountains and the Northern Sac. Valley Sunday and again
midweek next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected over interior NorCal for the next 24
hours with low chances of MVFR conditions from mist/haze in the
Southern Sac. Valley/Northern San Joaquin Valley before 18Z
Tuesday. Surface winds will generally be below 12 kts.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$