NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1-2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Mon Oct 21 17:03:02 UTC 2019
Oct 21, 2019 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis 

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 10,311 26,376 No Major Population Center in Risk Area
   FNUS21 KWNS 211702

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1202 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

   Valid 211700Z - 221200Z


   Main change to the ongoing forecast is to remove the critical area
   in southern California. Current observational trends, combined with
   the latest guidance, suggest that winds are not expected to be very
   strong on a broad basis. Greatest chance for locally critical will
   be within the higher terrain of Los Angeles/Ventura Counties. The
   offshore pressure gradient is expected to increase again this
   evening, but the forecast RH is expected to increase enough that
   critical conditions are not likely. Portions of southeast Colorado
   and southwestern Kansas may experience elevated conditions this
   afternoon with strong winds behind the cold front. Cooler
   temperatures and RH potentially not falling below 20% for very long
   precludes the introduction of an elevated area. Elsewhere the
   forecast remains on track. Please see the previous discussion below
   for more details.

   ..Wendt.. 10/21/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/

   A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states, with 70+ knot
   northwesterly flow aloft overspreading the southern High Plains
   throughout the afternoon. Diurnal boundary-layer mixing will aid in
   the downward transport of this higher-momentum air aloft to promote
   dry, breezy surface conditions supporting some wildfire-spread
   potential. Farther west, a pressure gradient will remain fortified
   across southern California given the lingering surface high over the
   Great Basin. Offshore flow will continue across the Transverse
   Ranges in southern California, where some potential will exist for
   conditions favoring wildfire spread.

   ...Central/eastern New Mexico into the southwest Texas Panhandle...
   With diurnal mixing and downslope flow, 20+ mph sustained
   west-northwesterly surface winds amidst 15-20% RH will become
   prevalent across parts of eastern New Mexico during the afternoon
   hours, where a critical area remains in place. An elevated area
   surrounding the critical risk highlights where winds should exceed
   15 mph for several hours, and where fuels are at least marginally
   receptive to fire spread.

   ...Southern California...
   Offshore flow will likely be strongest towards the early to
   mid-morning hours. 20-30 mph sustained northeasterly winds are
   likely along with 15-20% RH, particularly across the higher terrain
   of the San Gabriel and Santa Ynez mountain ranges, where a critical
   area has been maintained. Later in the afternoon, winds may decrease
   slightly, but with very dry conditions persisting, including points
   farther southeast to the Laguna Mountains. As such, the elevated
   delineation will be maintained to the California/Mexico border.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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