NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1-2 Fire Weather Outlook
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Oct 21, 2017 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis 

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 3,690 1,622,266 Santa Clarita, CA...Pasadena, CA...Palmdale, CA...Burbank, CA...Baldwin Park, CA...
   FNUS21 KWNS 211653

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1153 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

   Valid 211700Z - 221200Z


   ...Coastal Ranges of Southern California...
   Ongoing forecast of critical fire weather conditions for the
   mountains of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties in
   southern California remains on track with no changes needed (see
   previous discussion below for more details).

   ...Portions of the High Plains... 
   Despite relatively cool surface temperatures across this region,
   windy and dry conditions will lead to elevated fire weather concerns
   (see previous discussion for more details).  The only change was
   extend the elevated area westward in Colorado where strong
   northwesterly surface winds will contribute to warming and drying
   through downslope effects.

   ...Lower Colorado River Valley...
   An elevated area was added across the Lower Colorado River Valley,
   where a favorably oriented surface pressure gradient will lead to
   strong sustained northerly surface winds of 15-20 mph, especially
   through the early afternoon.  As boundary layer deepening/mixing
   occurs, RH values will fall below 15% resulting in elevated fire
   weather conditions.

   ..Jirak.. 10/21/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017/

   A powerful mid-level trough will progress steadily eastward across
   the center of the country today.  Upstream of this trough, mid/upper
   ridging will develop across California and adjacent areas of the
   Desert Southwest, while strong, zonally oriented mid-level flow
   develops across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.

   At the surface, a lee trough and cold front will merge and make
   eastward progress across the Plains, extending from the eastern
   Dakotas southward to the Texas Panhandle by mid-afternoon. 
   Upstream, an expansive anticyclone will build into the Great Basin,
   with 1030mb centered over western Colorado.  Each of these surface
   features will foster fire weather concerns Saturday in the High
   Plains and in southern California.

   ...Coastal Ranges of Southern California...
   A synoptically evident fire weather scenario will unfold today as
   high pressure in the Great Basin fosters a favorable surface
   pressure gradient for gusty offshore winds.  Northeasterly surface
   flow (with gusts as high as 50 mph) will develop especially in
   terrain-favored areas and persist throughout the day.  By
   mid-afternoon, very warm surface temperatures (approaching 90F) will
   combine with RH values falling to around 10-15% to foster widespread
   areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions.  Critical
   thresholds are most likely in portions of Santa Barbara, Ventura,
   and Los Angeles Counties in southern California during the afternoon
   and evening hours.  Overnight recoveries will be poor, and gusty
   northeasterly winds will likely persist into Sunday.

   ...A large part of the High Plains from eastern Colorado northward
   to southeastern Montana...
   Although surface temperatures will be substantially cooler than in
   previous days, continued westerly/downslope flow west of the lee
   trough/cold front will maintain a very dry airmass across the
   region.  RH will fall to around 10-15% in portions of eastern
   Colorado, and near 20% across portions of southeastern Montana,
   southwestern South Dakota, and vicinity.  Wind speeds will generally
   fall below critical thresholds in most areas (around 15 mph with a
   few higher gusts), although fuels appear to be capable of supporting
   fire spread.  An elevated fire delineation remains in place across
   this region to address the threat.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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