NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1-2 Fire Weather Outlook
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May 26, 2018 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis 

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 75,824 907,303 Flagstaff, AZ...Grand Junction, CO...Farmington, NM...South Valley, NM...Gallup, NM...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 260655

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0155 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH...WESTERN
   COLORADO...NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...AND NORTHEAST ARIZONA...

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong short-wave trough associated with a Great Basin
   mid-upper-level low will move east-northeast out of the Southwest
   and into the central Rocky Mountains. Strong tropospheric flow
   associated with this trough will overspread a very dry airmass
   across the Southwest, eastern Great Basin, and central Rocky
   Mountains.

   ...Greater Four Corners Vicinity...

   Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely
   across portions of the region as strong tropospheric flow becomes
   superimposed atop a very dry boundary layer. This setup will support
   the development of a well-mixed boundary layer by late morning that
   deepens with time. By late afternoon, minimum relative-humidity
   values in the single digits to low teens will be possible across
   much of the highlighted area. Additionally, the establishment of
   steep low-level lapse rates will promote strong downward momentum
   transfer supporting winds 25-35 mph sustained with higher gusts --
   especially across northeast Arizona northward into eastern Utah and
   western Colorado. The result is high confidence in critical
   fire-weather conditions occurring across the Four Corners and
   surrounding areas. Here, single-digit relative humidity will combine
   with winds around 30-35 mph. Surrounding this area, confidence in
   duration in the overlap of winds in excess of 20 mph and relative
   humidity less than 15 percent supports elevated to locally critical
   fire-weather highlights. 

   ...Western Colorado -- Dry Thunderstorm Potential ...

   Isolated dry thunderstorms may develop across this area as strong
   forcing for ascent overspreads steep low-level-lapse rates. Forecast
   soundings show elevated most-unstable CAPE values up to 500 J/kg
   atop a deep, well-mixed boundary layer. Precipitable-water values
   around a quarter of an inch will maintain an atmosphere that is
   likely too dry to overcome the dry sub-cloud layer, which, in turn,
   will not support wetting rains.

   ..Marsh.. 05/26/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK TO GET DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)
      


   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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