NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1-2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Fri Sep 21 15:05:03 UTC 2018
Sep 21, 2018 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis 

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   FNUS21 KWNS 211504

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1004 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

   Valid 211700Z - 221200Z


   The elevated area over parts of northeast CA/south-central
   OR/northwest NV has been removed. Fuels across parts of this area
   are unfavorable (mainly in OR) for large fires. Meanwhile, sparse
   biomass across this part of NV/CA will limit overall potential.

   ...South-central WY...

   The elevated area has been extended a bit southward from the Green
   and Granite mountains toward the Medicine Bow range. Available fuels
   across this area will align with sustained westerly surface winds of
   15-20 mph with higher gusts. RH values may be a bit marginal,
   falling into the 15-20 percent range. Some locally critical
   conditions are possible.

   ..Leitman.. 09/21/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018/

   A mid-level ridge will dominate the weather pattern across the
   western CONUS throughout much of the day, with the ridge breaking
   down Friday night. At the surface, high pressure will be in place
   across Great Basin into the Rocky Mountains, with a pressure trough
   developing from Montana down into the Great Basin late Friday night
   as the mid-level ridge weakens and a mid-level shortwave trough
   begins to approach the Pacific Northwest. 

   ...Southern Portions of the Pacific Northwest...
   As the mid-level shortwave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest,
   35+ knot southwesterly mid-level flow will begin to overspread the
   region. Though the mid-level flow will likely be modest, a very
   well-mixed boundary layer, extending up to 400 mb, is expected to
   mix the stronger winds aloft down to the surface, with elevated
   surface conditions (i.e. critical RH and 15-20 mph winds) expected
   amidst fuels receptive to fire spread.  

   ...Portions of central Wyoming...
   Modest mid-level flow traversing the ridge will overspread the area
   during the diurnal heating cycle. With a deep boundary layer, at
   least some downward momentum transfer is expected, with surface
   winds potentially reaching the 15-20 mph range. As such, marginally
   elevated conditions are expected during the mid to late afternoon
   hours given critical RH and fuels that are at least marginally
   conducive for supporting wildfires.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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