This map is not a source of official information. Do not use this map to make important decisions that could result in harm to life or property. Always follow the instructions of local law enforcement and officials. This map is intended only to provide a general awareness of wildfire activity. For official information regarding the incidents shown on the map, please visit VCEmergency.com.

Northern California Preparedness Level 2  

National Preparedness Level 1   

Twenty-nine new large wildfires were reported since November 10. Wildland fire personnel were able to contain 46 large fires in the past week. Currently 34 large fires have burned 42,724 acres in 10 eastern states, Arizona, Colorado, and Hawaii. States with the most large fires include Virginia and West Virginia. The Quaker Run, Collet Ridge, Matt's Creek, and Poplar Drive fires each have a complex incident management teams assigned. Nearly 1,355 wildland firefighters and support personnel are assigned to incidents.

The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook, produced by the predictive services staff at the National Interagency Coordination Center was released on November 1 and above normal wildfire potential is possible in Hawaii, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. The current wildland fire potential outlook and the monthly seasonal outlook podcast is also available. Always know the fire danger and restrictions before you head out to enjoy your public lands.

Low pressure will move into the West Coast today and tomorrow with widespread light to moderate rain and high elevation snow. Light precipitation will spread across the Intermountain West this weekend as the low pressure moves inland. Drier conditions are forecast for much of the West next week, with a weak to moderate Santa Ana event likely for southern California Monday and Tuesday, but precipitation late this week will moderate the conditions. A cold front will move from the Appalachians to the East Coast today into tomorrow with light to moderate rainfall, but little rain is forecast east of the central and southern Appalachians. Very dry post-frontal conditions with minimum relative humidity as low as 15% will develop this weekend, and breezy conditions on the east side of the Appalachians tomorrow will create areas of elevated to locally critical conditions. More substantial relief is forecast mid-next week due to widespread rainfall with another cold front, but a brief period of strong downslope winds may occur on the west slopes of the Appalachians before the rain arrives. Below to well below normal temperatures are forecast across much of the central US behind the front mid to late next week, from the High Plains to the Appalachians. 

National Interagency Fire Center statistics show that in 2002-2006, an average of 12,000 (16%) of the wildland fires were started by lightning per year. These fires burned an average of 5.2 million acres per year.

   Two-thirds of lightning fires occur June-August. lightning fires peak in the late afternoon and early evening. Three-fifths (61%) of all fires started by lightning occurred between 2:00 and 10:00 p.m.

   55% of lightning fires occur outdoors, and 41% occur in structures. Deaths and injuries occur mostly in structures (89% and 86%, respectively).

   Because most lightning fires occur outdoors, the most prominent form of material ignited is "growing living form," which includes trees, brush, and grass. Materials found on residential structures that are commonly ignited include roofs, sidewalls, and framing. Electrical wiring is another material often ignited, as the electrical current in lightning is drawn to electrical wires.

   Civilians suffer more injuries than fatalities in lightning fires each year. Most casualties result from lightning structure fires rather than outside or other types of lightning fires. 89% of lightning fire civilian fatalities and 86% of injuries occur in structure fires.

Lightning fires are started by strikes to ground that have a component called a continuing current. All positive discharges have a continuing current, and about 20% of negative discharges have one. Ignition depends on the duration of the current and the kind of fuel the lightning hits. Ignition in fuels with long and medium length needle cast, such as Ponderosa pine and Lodgepole pine, depend on the fuel moisture. Ignitions in short- needled species, such as Douglas fir depend far more on the depth of the duff layer than on the moisture. Spread of the fire after ignition usually depends on fuel moisture in all cases.

The ignition efficiency on a 1 km pixel is given on a per discharge basis. That is, if the efficiency is high, then about 9 discharges will result in one ignition; if the efficiency is extreme, about 5 or fewer discharges will result in an ignition. The ratio of positive and negative discharges is built into the calculation. (Latham and Schlieter 1989) document the algorithm.

The fuel type and depth are conversions of the 1 km resolution current cover type (Hardy and others 1999) for this specific calculation. The moisture input is the 100-hr dead fuel moisture.

August 2002 - The lightning ignition efficiency algorithm has been corrected due to discovery of an error. The resulting maps reflect higher lightning efficiency than previously.

Haines (1988) developed the Lower Atmosphere Stability Index, or Haines Index, for fire weather use. It is used to indicate the potential for wildfire growth by measuring the stability and dryness of the air over a fire. It is calculated by combining the stability and moisture content of the lower atmosphere into a number that correlates well with large fire growth. The stability term is determined by the temperature difference between two atmospheric layers; the moisture term is determined by the temperature and dew point difference. This index has been shown to be correlated with large fire growth on initiating and existing fires where surface winds do not dominate fire behavior.

Haines Index is computed from the morning (12Z) soundings from RAOB stations across North America.

The Haines Index can range between 2 and 6. The drier and more unstable the lower atmosphere is, the higher the index.

• 2 : Very Low Potential -- (Moist Stable Lower Atmosphere)
• 3 : Very Low Potential
• 4 : Low Potential
• 5 : Moderate Potential
• 6 : High Potential ------ (Dry Unstable Lower Atmosphere)

Each day during the fire season, national maps of selected fire weather and fire danger components of the National Fire Danger Rating System are produced by the Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS-MAPS), located at the USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station in Missoula, Montana.

  Keetch and Byram (1968) designed a drought index specifically for fire potential assessment. It is a number representing the net effect of evapotranspiration and precipitation in producing cumulative moisture deficiency in deep duff and upper soil layers. It is a continuous index, relating to the flammability of organic material in the ground.

  The KBDI attempts to measure the amount of precipitation necessary to return the soil to full field capacity.

It is a closed system ranging from 0 to 800 units and represents a moisture regime from 0 to 8 inches of water through the soil layer. At 8 inches of water, the KBDI assumes saturation. Zero is the point of no moisture deficiency and 800 is the maximum drought that is possible. At any point along the scale, the index number indicates the amount of net rainfall that is required to reduce the index to zero, or saturation.

  The inputs for KBDI are weather station latitude, mean annual precipitation, maximum dry bulb temperature, and the last 24 hours of rainfall. Reduction in drought occurs only when rainfall exceeds 0.20 inch (called net rainfall). The computational steps involve reducing the drought index by the net rain amount and increasing the drought index by a drought factor.

• KBDI = 0 - 200: Soil moisture and large class fuel moistures are high and do not contribute much to fire intensity. Typical of spring dormant season following winter precipitation.
• KBDI = 200 - 400: Typical of late spring, early growing season. Lower litter and duff layers are drying and beginning to contribute to fire intensity.
• KBDI = 400 - 600: Typical of late summer, early fall. Lower litter and duff layers actively contribute to fire intensity and will burn actively.
• KBDI = 600 - 800: Often associated with more severe drought with increased wildfire occurrence. Intense, deep burning fires with significant downwind spotting can be expected. Live fuels can also be expected to burn actively at these levels.