NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Nov 22, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Nov 22 16:22:35 UTC 2019
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Overview Overview

 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 221622

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1022 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2019

   Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO TONIGHT FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST TX INTO CENTRAL MS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to briefly severe thunderstorms are possible from southeast
   Texas to central Mississippi through tonight.

   ...Lower MS/TN Valley regions through early Saturday...
   A lead shortwave trough over OK this morning will eject
   east-northeastward and weaken in confluent flow regime aloft, while
   an upstream speed max over the southern Rockies progresses eastward
   to the Ark-La-Tex by 23/12z.  At the surface, a cold front will move
   slowly southeastward across the Ark-La-Miss and southeast TX today. 
   A weak surface cyclone is expected to develop along the front
   tonight across the lower MS Valley and then move northeastward to
   the TN Valley by Saturday morning.  The warm sector south of the
   front is characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints ranging from the
   mid 60s in west central MS to the lower 70s along the upper TX
   coast, with weak-moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg).  The
   relatively larger buoyancy will likely be confined to along and
   south of a pre-frontal convective band from extreme southeast TX
   into central LA today, where the highest dewpoints will reside and
   some surface heating will occur in cloud breaks. 

   Since little in the way of cyclogenesis is expected today, low-level
   shear is likely near peak this morning and should weaken some this
   afternoon in the warm sector.  This leaves an environment with
   modest low-level shear and sufficient deep-layer shear/buoyancy for
   some embedded supercells with a low-end damaging wind and/or tornado
   threat.  Convection will persist through tonight and spread into
   northern AL, though lingering static stability near the ground
   should limit any threat for strong/severe storms this far northeast.

   ..Thompson/Jirak.. 11/22/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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