NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Feb 23, 2018 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 231622

   Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1022 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

   Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND
   NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT...

   CORRECTED THUNDERSTORM LINE.

   ...SUMMARY...
   An isolated severe storm or two is possible over portions of
   central/north Texas late tonight.

   ...OK/TX into the Mid MS Valley...
   Morning water vapor loop shows two important upper features
   contributing to the forecast for thunderstorms.  The first shortwave
   trough is currently over north TX, and is associated with a cluster
   of showers and thunderstorms along the Red River.  This activity
   will develop northeastward into the mid MS valley through the day,
   with a continued risk of thunderstorms.  While marginally severe
   hail is not out of the question, the risk is very low.

   ...Central/North TX Late Tonight...
   A second and more intense upper trough is currently over the Great
   Basin.  This feature will dig into the southern Rockies by Saturday
   morning.  Increasing large-scale lift ahead of the trough will
   overspread TX by daybreak, possibly leading to scattered
   thunderstorm development.  Only a minority of morning CAM guidance
   shows this activity forming before 12z, so confidence that this
   threat develops during the DAY1 period is low.  Nevertheless, will
   maintain the ongoing marginal hail probability area.

   ...Southeast AR/Northeast MS this afternoon...
   One final area of low concern this afternoon is over parts of the
   lower MS valley.  Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds in
   this area, which may contribute to slow destabilization today.  A
   cluster of showers and thunderstorms currently over southeast LA
   will spread northward and into this slightly more unstable air mass.
    Vertical shear is rather weak, but a strong storm capable of hail
   is possible later today.  The current thought is that this threat is
   below the 5% threshold.

   ..Hart.. 02/23/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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