NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Feb 17, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 17 00:57:11 UTC 2019
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Overview Overview

 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 170057

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0657 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

   Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening from central
   California through the Oregon coast.  Showers and a few
   thunderstorms are also expected later tonight over a portion of the
   Tennessee Valley.

   ...Tennessee Valley area...

   A southwesterly low-level jet will strengthen from the lower MS
   through TN Valley tonight within the exit region of an intensifying
   upper jet accompanying a progressive shortwave trough. The resulting
   theta-e advection will contribute to weak (200-400 J/kg) MUCAPE with
   the base of the unstable layer near 850 mb. Interaction of the
   low-level jet with the pre-existing baroclinic zone and deeper
   ascent accompanying the shortwave trough will promote an increase in
   elevated convection including a few thunderstorms later tonight.

   ...Central California through western Oregon...

   The 00Z RAOB data show 7-7.5 C/km lapse rates in the near surface to
   500 mb layer along with very weak (100-300 J/kg) MUCAPE. A series of
   vorticity maxima moving southeastward through the broad upper trough
   will continue to promote areas of scattered showers. Though overall
   thermodynamic environment remains very marginal, isolated lightning
   strikes cannot be ruled out.

   ..Dial.. 02/17/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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