NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Jul 18, 2019 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 18 12:40:39 UTC 2019
  | | | |  
Overview Overview

 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 181240

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0740 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

   Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE UPPER MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Areas of severe storms are possible across the Upper Midwest on
   Thursday.

   ...IA/MN/WI...
   A large non-severe MCS is tracking eastward this morning across much
   of southern WI and northern IL.  In the wake of this system, visible
   satellite imagery shows broken clouds and the potential for areas of
   heating later today.  Ample low-level moisture remains across parts
   of IA/MN where large MLCAPE values (over 4000 J/kg) are forecast to
   develop.  Upper-level forcing mechanisms are hard to identify. 
   However, continued subtle low-level warm advection coupled with
   daytime heating are expected to initiate isolated thunderstorms over
   parts of northern IA and southern MN by late afternoon.  Forecast
   soundings show steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep layer
   shear for supercell storm structures capable of large hail and
   damaging winds.  Activity that forms will track eastward across WI
   during the evening with a continued severe threat.

   ...Eastern MD to southeast NY...
   Considerable sunshine is expected today along a corridor from
   eastern MD into NJ, eastern PA, and southeast NY.  This area will be
   on the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies, with forecast
   soundings showing steep low-level lapse rates and just enough
   westerly winds in the 1-3km range to pose a risk of gusty winds in
   the strongest cells.

   ..Hart/Smith.. 07/18/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
powered by Cumulus v1.9.3 (1059)
Ambient Weather VWS v14.00
Top Contact Website Map Copyright © 2007 - 2019 Foresthillweather.com Never base important decisions on this or any weather information obtained from the Internet