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| Mar 18, 2010 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | ||||
| Updated: Thu Mar 18 00:51:17 UTC 2010 | ||||
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| Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook |
SPC AC 180049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2010 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY SPLIT FLOW OVER ERN CONUS...WITH LARGE FETCH OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO FL TO CAROLINAS. PRIMARY/ANCHORING CYCLONE -- CENTER OF WHICH CURRENTLY IS INDICATED IN SATELLITE/RAOB/VWP DATA OVER NERN GA/NWRN SC -- IS FCST TO DRIFT ERRATICALLY NEAR PRESENT LOCATION. MEANWHILE...SECONDARY UPPER LOW -- INITIALLY ANALYZED INVOF FSM -- WILL PIVOT SSEWD TOWARD LA COAST AND EVOLVE INTO STG/OPEN-WAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AT SFC...CYCLONE ALREADY EVIDENT OFFSHORE NRN FL SHOULD DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY NNEWD OVER ATLANTIC WATERS WELL OFFSHORE GA. RELATED SFC FRONTS...STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WAA CONVEYOR...AND ANY TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE FEATURES...WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM COAST. ELSEWHERE...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SRN BC AND JUST OFFSHORE ORE COAST WILL MOVE ESEWD TO NRN MT AND ERN ORE/NERN CA RESPECTIVELY...THROUGH 12Z. WHILE VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY INVOF ZONE OF STRONGEST MIDLEVEL DPVA PRECEDING OR TROUGH...LACK OF GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ENOUGH TSTM THREAT TO KEEP ANY AOA 10% UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES OVER WRN CONUS. ..EDWARDS.. 03/18/2010 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |
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