NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Mar 18, 2010 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 18 00:51:17 UTC 2010
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Overview Overview

 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook

   SPC AC 180049
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0749 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2010
   
   VALID 180100Z - 181200Z
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY SPLIT FLOW
   OVER ERN CONUS...WITH LARGE FETCH OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM CENTRAL
   PLAINS TO FL TO CAROLINAS.  PRIMARY/ANCHORING CYCLONE -- CENTER OF
   WHICH CURRENTLY IS INDICATED IN SATELLITE/RAOB/VWP DATA OVER NERN
   GA/NWRN SC -- IS FCST TO DRIFT ERRATICALLY NEAR PRESENT LOCATION. 
   MEANWHILE...SECONDARY UPPER LOW -- INITIALLY ANALYZED INVOF FSM --
   WILL PIVOT SSEWD TOWARD LA COAST AND EVOLVE INTO STG/OPEN-WAVE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  
   
   AT SFC...CYCLONE ALREADY EVIDENT OFFSHORE NRN FL SHOULD DEEPEN AND
   MOVE SLOWLY NNEWD OVER ATLANTIC WATERS WELL OFFSHORE GA.  RELATED
   SFC FRONTS...STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WAA CONVEYOR...AND ANY TSTMS
   ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE FEATURES...WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM COAST.
   
   ELSEWHERE...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SRN BC AND JUST OFFSHORE ORE
   COAST WILL MOVE ESEWD TO NRN MT AND ERN ORE/NERN CA
   RESPECTIVELY...THROUGH 12Z.  WHILE VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY INVOF ZONE OF STRONGEST MIDLEVEL DPVA
   PRECEDING OR TROUGH...LACK OF GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD
   PRECLUDE ENOUGH TSTM THREAT TO KEEP ANY AOA 10% UNCONDITIONAL
   PROBABILITIES OVER WRN CONUS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/18/2010
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z



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