NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Sep 19, 2020 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Sep 19 19:30:51 UTC 2020
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Overview Overview

 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 191930

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

   Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong or locally severe thunderstorms may occur across parts
   of eastern Idaho/western Wyoming and far northern Utah this
   afternoon and early evening.

   ...20Z Update...
   Aside from a slight expansion of the General Thunderstorm area to
   account for ongoing convection across northeast NV, no changes have
   been made to the previous outlook. A few strong/locally severe
   thunderstorms still appear possible later this afternoon into the
   early evening from eastern ID into far western WY. See the previous
   discussion below for more details.

   ..Dean.. 09/19/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020/

   ...Eastern Idaho/western Wyoming/far northern Utah...
   Cloud cover and lingering early day precipitation are expected to
   generally clear from west to east this afternoon. While overall
   moisture will be limited, clearing skies in conjunction with a
   relatively cool pocket of mid-level air will allow for a steepening
   of low/mid-level lapse rates with modest buoyancy and negligible
   boundary-layer inhibition. Accordingly, isolated thunderstorms
   should develop across the region later this afternoon, and a few of
   these could produce gusty winds and/or hail.

   ...Gulf Coast...
   Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast
   details on Tropical Storm Beta currently over the northwest Gulf of
   Mexico. This system is expected to remain far enough away from land
   such that no near-shore severe risk is expected through early
   Sunday.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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