SPC AC 291943

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0143 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

   Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

   ...20z Update...

   No changes are needed with the 20z update. See discussion below for
   more forecast info.

   ..Leitman.. 11/29/2023

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/

   ...Southern Rockies to TX tonight...
   As part of a split flow regime, a midlevel shortwave trough now
   approaching southern CA will continue eastward to southern NM/far
   west TX by early Thursday morning.  Isolated thunderstorms will also
   be possible this evening into tonight across the higher terrain of
   northern/eastern AZ into western NM as sufficient midlevel
   cooling/moistening contributes to weak buoyancy within the left exit
   region of the mid-upper jet.  Overnight, a modifying Gulf of Mexico
   air mass will return northward to near the lower/middle TX coast at
   the surface, and aloft into north/northeast TX.  There will be
   sufficient destabilization aloft to support elevated thunderstorms
   in a strengthening warm advection regime, mainly 08-12z.  Any severe
   threat will likely be delayed until early in the day 2 forecast
   period.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z