NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Mar 1, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 1 05:02:40 UTC 2021
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Overview Overview

 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 010502

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1102 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected after sunrise.

   ...Gulf States...

   Mid-level height falls will strengthen across the southern Plains
   during the latter half of the period ahead of a notable short-wave
   trough that should advance into OK/north TX during the overnight
   hours. As a result, meaningful large-scale ascent will remain
   focused well north of the surface front which should surge of the TX
   Coast early in the period. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates
   will remain conducive for elevated convection ahead of the short
   wave. There is some concern that a few robust updrafts may be
   ongoing at the start of the period across south-central TX, in
   closer proximity to a bit more buoyancy; however, any hail
   production should remain mostly sub-severe. Downstream, weak
   low-level convergence along the southward-advancing front will not
   be particularly advantageous for more than isolated lightning
   flashes within the strongest convection.

   ..Darrow.. 03/01/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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