NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 24, 2019 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri May 24 19:40:55 UTC 2019
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Overview Overview

 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 241940

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0240 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

   Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TX
   SOUTH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and tonight from
   western portions of Texas through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
   region. Damaging wind and large hail will be the main threats, but a
   few tornadoes will also be possible.

   ...20z Update...

   Earlier thoughts regarding severe continue. No changes to 1630z
   outlook are warranted.

   Strong boundary-layer heating appears responsible for recent
   convective development across the TX south Plains. Robust supercells
   are expected to continue through this evening as LLJ should remain
   focused across this region through sunrise Saturday.

   Farther north, isolated supercells should also persist within warm
   advection zone across IL. This activity could develop a bit north
   into the early evening as warm front advances into southern
   WI/southern Lake MI.

   ..Darrow.. 05/24/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019/

   ...Upper Midwest through Great Lakes region...

   Late this morning a warm front extends from southern IA through
   central IL and indiana. A weakening outflow boundary continues to
   advance southeast into western IL where it intersects the warm
   front. MCS that has been ongoing north of this front will continue
   east, and a broad southerly low-level jet should promote northward
   movement of the warm front into the upper Great Lakes region later
   today. Surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s to around 70F south of
   the warm front and gradual northward destabilization of the boundary
   layer should occur supporting at least moderate instability with
   1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE possible. Complicating factor is effect of
   ongoing convection and associated clouds and boundaries which may
   slow the northward extent of the destabilization process. Storms are
   expected to redevelop along the warm front and residual outflow
   boundaries this afternoon. Strongest vertical shear and larger 0-1
   km hodographs will exist in vicinity of the warm front. Effective
   bulk shear from 40-50 kt will support supercells with large hail,
   damaging wind and a few tornadoes possible. Activity may eventually
   consolidate into lines or clusters.

   ...West Texas through Oklahoma and Kansas...

   A convective reinforced front extends from the southern TX Panhandle
   through northeast KS. A gradual erosion of low clouds and influx of
   very moist air with surface dewpoints around 70F will support
   Moderate to strong instability this afternoon (2000-3000 J/kg
   MLCAPE). Storms are expected to redevelop in vicinity of this
   boundary and spread northeast through KS. Other storms are expected
   along the dryline. Vertical wind profiles with 40-50 kt effective
   bulk shear will support supercells as the initial storm mode. While
   0-1 km hodographs will not initially be particularly large, they
   will increase by late afternoon into the evening as the low-level
   jet strengthens. Large hail and damaging wind will be the main
   threats, but a few tornadoes are also possible, especially across
   west Texas.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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