NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Oct 17, 2018 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Oct 17 19:49:57 UTC 2018
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Overview Overview

 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 171949

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0249 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018

   Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are not expected through tonight.

   ...Discussion...
   A few minor changes have been made to the Gulf thunder area to
   account for ongoing satellite/radar/surface trends near the front
   along the central Gulf Coast. Additionally, some portions of the
   Florida Peninsula have been removed from thunder based on visible
   imagery. Otherwise, isolated storms are still expected across parts
   of the Great Basin, and no changes have been made here.

   ..Picca.. 10/17/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018/

   ...Discussion...
   Severe potential appears negligible today. Isolated storms are
   possible along a drifting cold front over north FL and the
   west-coast sea breeze south across the peninsula, where weak
   deep-layer shear is prevalent. Across far southern LA, meager
   buoyancy along and just north of a slowly drifting front near the
   mouth of the MS River could foster isolated storms through this
   afternoon. Farther west, a mid-level cyclone will remain anchored
   near the AZ/UT border. In association with scant buoyancy, this
   setup may support isolated storms this afternoon over southern UT.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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