NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Sep 24, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 240055

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0755 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

   Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO/FAR WEST TEXAS AREA......

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong/severe storms -- capable of producing locally
   damaging wind gusts and marginal hail -- may persist for another few
   hours across parts of southern High Plains including far West Texas.

   ...Southeast New Mexico and far West Texas and vicinity...
   While a broad convective band extending from the north-central U.S.
   south-southwest to far West Texas persists, overall/gradual
   weakening of the convection continues with a combination of diurnal
   cooling/stabilization, and outflow largely undercutting storms
   across the northern and central U.S.

   The most vigorous storms are ongoing across southeast New Mexico and
   far West Texas at this time.  In this area, ample instability (1000
   to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE per objective analyses) and ample
   deep-layer shear indicated across the area will continue to support
   limited hail/wind risk.  Eventually, stabilization of the boundary
   layer should result in a gradual ramp-down of convective
   organization, but marginal severe risk may linger for the next 2-3
   hours or so.

   ..Goss.. 09/24/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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