NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Jun 14, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 14 01:00:51 UTC 2024
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Overview Overview

 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 140100

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0800 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

   Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST
   KS...NORTHERN MO...WESTERN/CENTRAL IL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from parts of the
   central and southern Great Plains into the Midwest. Large to very
   large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado or two are possible.

   ...Central/southern Great Plains into the Midwest...
   A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing this evening
   from northern MO into west-central IL. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE
   greater than 2500 J/kg) and moderate west-northwesterly deep-layer
   shear will continue to support supercells within the ongoing cluster
   for a few hours this evening, with a threat of large to very large
   hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. 

   Farther west, deep-layer shear is more marginal across the central
   Great Plains, but sufficient to support severe-storm potential in
   the presence of strong buoyancy. The strongest cells will remain
   capable of producing large hail this evening, though there may be
   some tendency for modest upscale growth, with a threat of severe
   gusts of 60-80 mph as convection moves through a very warm and well
   mixed environment. 

   Between the two primary areas of convection, additional development
   remains possible along a front within a conditionally favorable
   environment from northeast KS into northwest MO. Any storms that can
   mature and develop in this region would also pose a threat of large
   to very large hail and severe gusts.

   ..Dean.. 06/14/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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