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| Sep 9, 2010 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | ||||
| Updated: Thu Sep 9 16:31:46 UTC 2010 | ||||
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| Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook |
SPC AC 091628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT THU SEP 09 2010 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT... NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE PRIOR OUTLOOK AREA AND REASONING. A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRECEDED BY A LEE CYCLONE THAT WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM SE MT TO WRN ND...WHILE S OF THE CYCLONE A LEE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S ARE RETURNING NNWWD IN A CORRIDOR FROM NEB TOWARD WRN ND TO THE E OF THE LEE TROUGH AND S OF A WARM FRONT...AND BENEATH A PLUME OF 7-7.5 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... MLCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE... WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY 21-23Z NEAR THE SURFACE LOW CLOSE TO THE MT/ND BORDER...AND SWD ALONG THE LEE TROUGH NEAR THE WY/SD BORDER. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS NW SD/SW ND IN PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT WHERE THE INITIAL STORMS WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL CORRESPOND WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS. THE SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT TOWARD THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. ...CENTRAL/NRN AR THIS AFTERNOON... THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE ARE MOVING ENEWD FROM NE OK/SE KS TO NW AR AND SW MO...ALONG AND N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT NEAR I-40 ACROSS AR. SURFACE-BASED STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WARM FRONT AND THE PRIMARY CONFLUENCE BAND WHICH EXTENDS FROM SE OK INTO NW AR...WHICH ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE BELT OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SLY/SWLY FLOW AND EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2. THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO ...ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE...BEFORE THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES BY LATE EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE REDUCED A LITTLE FROM PRIOR DAYS...SO WILL MAINTAIN 2% TORNADO PROBABILITY AREA. ..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 09/09/2010 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |
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