NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Jun 18, 2018 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 181240

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0740 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

   Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST
   STATES...AND PARTS OF IOWA...NEBRASKA...COLORADO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening
   across parts of the Northeast, central Plains, and northeast
   Colorado.

   ...Northeast...
   A band of relatively fast mid-level winds extends across the Great
   Lakes region and into the northeast states this morning.  A surface
   cold front will sweep southeastward across the northeast US this
   afternoon and evening, with multiple lines/clusters of thunderstorms
   expected along and ahead of the front.  Early visible satellite
   imagery over this region shows the potential for substantial daytime
   heating, with afternoon highs well into the 80s or even lower 90s F.
   This will yield steep low level lapse rates and MLCAPE values over
   1000 J/kg.  While storm mode and low/mid level winds appear
   favorable for a more organized severe wind event, poor mid-level
   lapse rates appear to be a limiting factor.  Storms should spread
   across much of New England through mid-evening and eventually move
   offshore and weaken after dark.

   Uncertainty exists regarding the western extent of more substantial
   severe potential.  Have extended the SLGT risk area into western NY,
   but parts of Lower MI and OH/PA will need to be monitored in later
   updates for the potential of greater storm coverage and a possible
   upgrade.

   ...NE/IA...
   A significant shortwave trough over eastern CO is forecast to track
   northeastward and into NE today.  Lift and enhanced wind fields
   ahead of this system will promote the development of scattered
   afternoon thunderstorms along a persistent surface boundary
   extending from eastern NE into IA.  Strong heating and dewpoints in
   the 70s F south of the boundary will help yield ample CAPE.  A few
   severe storms capable of hail and damaging winds are expected during
   the peak-heating hours.

   ...Northeast CO...
   A surface cold front has surged southward across northeast CO, where
   temperatures have dropped into the mid 50s this morning.  Overnight
   CAM solutions are consistent in backing the surface winds over this
   region through the day, with a strengthening Denver Cyclone by
   mid/late afternoon.  It appears likely that one or more supercells
   will form in this region, tracking eastward across the SLGT risk
   area.  Large hail appears to be the main threat.

   ...Central WY...
   A strong upper trough is rotating across UT and will affect WY this
   afternoon.  Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across this
   region after 18z, lifting northward toward the MT border.  Forecast
   soundings suggest sufficient CAPE/shear for a few storms producing
   hail.

   ..Hart/Kerr.. 06/18/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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