NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 20, 2018
Updated: Sat Jan 20 09:09:02 UTC 2018
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions


D4Tue, Jan 23, 2018 - Wed, Jan 24, 2018 D7Fri, Jan 26, 2018 - Sat, Jan 27, 2018
D5Wed, Jan 24, 2018 - Thu, Jan 25, 2018 D8Sat, Jan 27, 2018 - Sun, Jan 28, 2018
D6Thu, Jan 25, 2018 - Fri, Jan 26, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 200907
   SPC AC 200907

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0307 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

   Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Model guidance is in relatively good agreement that the mature
   cyclone traversing the central Plains and middle MS valley over the
   weekend and Monday will weaken and become more progressive on
   Tuesday, opening up as it moves through the upper Great Lakes and
   Northeast. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of this system across
   portions of the VA Piedmont into the VA Tidewater Tuesday morning.
   Given the strength of the flow, a few of these storms may be severe.
   However, uncertainty regarding occurrence and coverage is too low to
   delineate any outlook areas.

   By mid-week, southern-stream shortwave trough will move slowly
   across the southern Plains while upper ridging progresses across the
   remainder of the Plains and MS Valley. Moisture return ahead of the
   system expected to move into the Plains late Friday is now progged
   to be more stunted than in previous guidance, largely a result of
   more persistent surface ridging across the eastern CONUS. Based on
   the most recent guidance, low severe thunderstorm potential exists
   from Tuesday through Saturday.

   ..Mosier.. 01/20/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.

Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center

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