| D4 | Thu, Oct 25, 2018 - Fri, Oct 26, 2018 |
D7 | Sun, Oct 28, 2018 - Mon, Oct 29, 2018 |
| D5 | Fri, Oct 26, 2018 - Sat, Oct 27, 2018 |
D8 | Mon, Oct 29, 2018 - Tue, Oct 30, 2018 |
| D6 | Sat, Oct 27, 2018 - Sun, Oct 28, 2018 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day) |
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Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
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PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
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POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 220843
SPC AC 220843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Behind an ejecting trough over the Northeast, another strong upper
trough is forecast to amplify over the Southeast during the Fri/D5
to Sat/D6 period. A surface low will deepen just off the coastal
Carolinas on Fri/D5, drawing low-level moisture northward across
southeast GA and FL. Despite this, relatively weak instability is
forecast, with MUCAPE values in the 500-1000 j/kg range. Low-level
flow will veer quickly over FL on Fri/D5, but there should still be
enough lift for scattered thunderstorms prior to drier air moving in
from the west. Strengthening mean winds suggest a few storms may
produce damaging winds, but the strongest lift will develop offshore
with the low.
Beyond Fri/D5, a cold front in the wake of the Southeast system will
again push moisture southward to the Gulf of Mexico, with little if
any thunderstorms potential for the remainder of the CONUS through
Mon/D8.
..Jewell.. 10/22/2018
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Air Quality
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