NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 17, 2012
Updated: Thu May 17 08:52:03 UTC 2012
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions


D4Sun, May 20, 2012 - Mon, May 21, 2012 D7Wed, May 23, 2012 - Thu, May 24, 2012
D5Mon, May 21, 2012 - Tue, May 22, 2012 D8Thu, May 24, 2012 - Fri, May 25, 2012
D6Tue, May 22, 2012 - Wed, May 23, 2012 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 170850
   SPC AC 170850
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2012
   
   VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   ABOVE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH HIGH CONSISTENCY IN GUIDANCE
   FURTHER DAMPENING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS ON D4.
   ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN PREVALENT ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS...WEAKENING FLOW FIELDS WILL
   LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT
   WITH INDICATING A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE
   NWRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT DISCREPANCIES WITH THE HANDLING OF
   INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ALONG WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
   TROUGH BECOME MORE APPARENT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A BROADER/MORE
   RICHLY MOIST WARM SECTOR APPEARS MORE PROBABLE RELATIVE TO THE
   SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CNTRL STATES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH
   MAY RESULT IN HIGHER SEVERE POTENTIAL D7 AND BEYOND DEPENDING ON THE
   EVOLUTION OF THIS LATTER TROUGH.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/17/2012

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.

Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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