NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 22, 2018
Updated: Mon Oct 22 08:45:03 UTC 2018
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Thu, Oct 25, 2018 - Fri, Oct 26, 2018 D7Sun, Oct 28, 2018 - Mon, Oct 29, 2018
D5Fri, Oct 26, 2018 - Sat, Oct 27, 2018 D8Mon, Oct 29, 2018 - Tue, Oct 30, 2018
D6Sat, Oct 27, 2018 - Sun, Oct 28, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 220843
   SPC AC 220843

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0343 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

   Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

   Behind an ejecting trough over the Northeast, another strong upper
   trough is forecast to amplify over the Southeast during the Fri/D5
   to Sat/D6 period. A surface low will deepen just off the coastal
   Carolinas on Fri/D5, drawing low-level moisture northward across
   southeast GA and FL. Despite this, relatively weak instability is
   forecast, with MUCAPE values in the 500-1000 j/kg range. Low-level
   flow will veer quickly over FL on Fri/D5, but there should still be
   enough lift for scattered thunderstorms prior to drier air moving in
   from the west. Strengthening mean winds suggest a few storms may
   produce damaging winds, but the strongest lift will develop offshore
   with the low.

   Beyond Fri/D5, a cold front in the wake of the Southeast system will
   again push moisture southward to the Gulf of Mexico, with little if
   any thunderstorms potential for the remainder of the CONUS through

   ..Jewell.. 10/22/2018


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.

Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center

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