NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 22, 2018
Updated: Sun Apr 22 08:45:03 UTC 2018
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Wed, Apr 25, 2018 - Thu, Apr 26, 2018 D7Sat, Apr 28, 2018 - Sun, Apr 29, 2018
D5Thu, Apr 26, 2018 - Fri, Apr 27, 2018 D8Sun, Apr 29, 2018 - Mon, Apr 30, 2018
D6Fri, Apr 27, 2018 - Sat, Apr 28, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 220843
   SPC AC 220843

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0343 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

   Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

   Most recent medium-range guidance begins to diverge early in the
   extended period with the active pattern across the central and
   eastern CONUS likely contributing to the run-to-run and
   model-to-model inconsistencies. Even with the various solutions
   offered, none of the guidance suggests widespread severe
   thunderstorms for any day in the extended period.

   ..Mosier.. 04/22/2018


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.

Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center

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