| D4 | Thu, Jul 19, 2018 - Fri, Jul 20, 2018 |
D7 | Sun, Jul 22, 2018 - Mon, Jul 23, 2018 |
| D5 | Fri, Jul 20, 2018 - Sat, Jul 21, 2018 |
D8 | Mon, Jul 23, 2018 - Tue, Jul 24, 2018 |
| D6 | Sat, Jul 21, 2018 - Sun, Jul 22, 2018 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day) |
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Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
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PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
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POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 160846
SPC AC 160846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5...
The medium-range models move a shortwave trough into the upper
Mississippi Valley on Thursday but agreement is not good even early
in the day 4 to 8 period. The ECMWF and GFS are faster than the
Canadian and UKMET solutions while the Parallel-FV3 is deeper and
further south. The ECMWF and GFS solutions suggests the upper-level
trough will not be phased-well with the area of greatest instability
in the central Plains. In spite of this, isolated severe storms
could still form behind the upper-level trough in the mid Missouri
Valley but uncertainty is high due to model spread.
On Friday, the models move the upper-level trough into the western
Great Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley with moderate instability
located in the base of the trough. Moderate deep-layer shear is also
forecast in the mid Mississippi Valley where a severe threat will be
possible late Friday afternoon into the evening. However,
uncertainty concerning the timing of the upper-level trough is
considerable.
...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8...
From Saturday to Monday, the models move the upper-level trough
slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. Although moderate
instability may develop each day across parts of the Southeast and
along parts of the Atlantic Seaboard, deep-layer shear is forecast
to be relatively weak. This would keep any severe threat marginal.
Uncertainty concerning the trough timing reduces predictability for
next weekend's forecast.
..Broyles.. 07/16/2018
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Air Quality
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